Fears of a constitutional crisis after the postponement of the elections in Ethiopia .. Any scenarios for a solution?

Hassan Razzak-Addis Ababa

The Ethiopian political scene stands on the brink of a constitutional crisis following the postponement of the elections scheduled for August 29, which will result in the termination of the parliament’s term in September before the election of new members, meaning that it contravenes the text of the constitution, which stipulates in its article 58 that polls take place before the end of The mandate of the month-old Parliament.

In the face of multiple interpretations of the Ethiopian constitution, which organizes the post-election postponement stage in the event that political forces fail to come out with a legal consensus, there are multiple readings and scenarios, opening the door to a new challenge to the reform efforts of Prime Minister Abi Ahmed, who is already facing political and economic challenges.

The National Elections Council announced on March 31 that it would not be able to hold the elections on time, due to the restrictions of the Corona epidemic, leaving the final decision of the parliament that ratified April 30 to postpone the elections, and referred the matter to a special parliamentary committee, which is the step Which poses a dilemma for the government whose legal term expires at the beginning of next October, and therefore it needs a legal framework to stay in power after this period.

Government options
Meanwhile, Abi Ahmed began his consultations with political party leaders, to come up with a legal consensus on the upcoming constitutional crisis, where his government presented four options, namely: dissolving parliament, declaring a state of emergency, amending the constitution, or requesting a constitutional interpretation.

Pliny Seyoum, press secretary for the Prime Minister, said that the options are the conclusion of a series of consultations the government held with legal and experts inside the country and abroad, and she made clear - in a press statement that Al-Jazeera received a copy of it - that the government was keen that all options be constitutional, effective, and applicable at the federal and regional levels, It ensured that the government would continue to work, both to reduce the Coruna epidemic and to conduct free and fair elections.

Dissolution of Parliament
Article 60 of the Ethiopian constitution states that the prime minister - with the consent of the deputies - will dissolve parliament, with the executive branch continuing as a caretaker government. However, this option collides with many difficulties, which the researcher on Horn of Africa Affairs Omar Ahmed Omar talked about, as he pointed out that "the dissolution of Parliament before the end of its mandate is subject to early elections within six months, and therefore the step is fraught with constitutional loopholes that can later be contested by political forces." ".

Omar said - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that, according to the constitution, the caretaker government is not entitled to issue any new decrees, amend or cancel existing laws, or sign agreements, and therefore its powers will be restricted to the marathon of reforms that Ethiopia has witnessed two years ago and what it requires of new legislation, In addition to that, it stands in the way of signing any upcoming agreements on the Renaissance Dam negotiations.

Regarding the option to declare a state of emergency, Omar said that according to Article 93 of the constitution, the government has the right to impose it for reasons stipulated in the constitution, adding that the state of emergency was already declared since April 8 due to the Corona pandemic, and the option is to extend until the elections are held, and continued "despite That the emergency option gives the government and parliament the right to retain their full powers, but there was no clear text on his powers to extend the mandate of the parliamentarians, which would open the doors wide to legal and constitutional interpretations.

Constitutional amendments is
an option of constitutional amendments, and political analyst Ando Almisay described it as the least harmful and safest option, noting that Articles 104 and 105 of the Constitution provide for the possibility of amendments in the event of approval by a two-thirds majority in Parliament in its two chambers (Parliament and Federal Council), and approval of the parliaments of six regions An Ethiopian out of nine, a measure Sisai considered possible, given that the ruling party has a comfortable majority in parliament enabling it to pass the amendments.

He explained that the articles that will be affected by the amendment are mostly related to the meetings of Parliament and the duration of its term, and it may include adding exceptions about the permissibility of Parliament’s mandate under exceptional force majeure. According to Sisay's pain, this option would allow the flexibility to extend the declaration of a state of emergency related to the Coruna epidemic as necessary, without any concern about the election timetable that will be subject to separate new constitutional provisions.

As for the option of constitutional interpretation regulated by Article 83 of the Constitution, the political analyst considered that it is a solution that is resorted to in the event that the provisions of the constitution do not clearly and explicitly touch upon an event, and therefore requests the Federal Council (the second chamber of Parliament) to provide a constitutional interpretation, which in turn transmits it to a council Constitutional Investigation of the Dispute Resolution, a 11-member council including the President and Vice President of the Federal Supreme Court, six legal experts, and three members of the Federal Council.

Ando Alam Sesay said that with the arrival of the file to the Constitutional Investigation Council, any other constitutional interpretation remains within the scope of scientific research, personal impression, or political opinion, because the interpretative decision issued by the Constitutional Investigation Council is the only one that has the power to bind the provision of the constitutional text contained in Article ( 83).

However, Sesay’s pain excluded the resort to this option, given that the “post-election” issue is not related to constitutional ambiguity as much as it is a vacuum problem that requires amendment and not an explanation, as he described it. 

Expanding the consultations
As the marathon of government consultations with the opposition parties continues to emerge from the post-election delay crisis, actors and followers of the Ethiopian affair stressed the importance of expanding the political consultation belt, where the head of the African Union Commission for Human and People's Rights, Suleiman Derso, said that Prime Minister Abi Ahmed’s move to conduct the consultations A politically wise move, but it should be taken as just the beginning of a national practice

Derso explained that political parties present in their current form only narrow interests of elites competing for power, and they are not the only actors in society, noting that the crisis as not only constitutional but the issue of society as a whole, it is necessary to participate all sectors of society such as organizations, representatives of regions and city councils Trade unions, companies, workers, professional societies, intellectuals, and youth, which would give popular legitimacy to any approved treatment.