Denial champion (from Covid-19), Trump enters the campaign for his re-election

Spectacular setting, inflated balance sheet and hardly tenable promises: it is an interview which had the airs of campaign which Donald Trump gave, Sunday May 3, to Fox News, in front of the gigantic statue of Abraham Lincoln in Washington. Criticized for his management of the Covid-19 health crisis, the American president tried to make forget his errors and in particular promised a vaccine before the end of the year and a year 2021 "incredible" on the economic level.

But six months before the US presidential election, scheduled for November 3, the facts, starting with the economic situation of the country, may thwart his campaign strategy, according to the specialist of the United States Jean-Éric Branaa, teacher- researcher at Panthéon-Assas University, author of "Nothing will be as before, America in the time of the coronavirus" (VA Éditions), contacted by France 24.

>> See: "In the United States, we were prepared for Covid-19, not for the chaos of the Trump administration"

In the meantime, apart from the State of New York which canceled its primary to declare Joe Biden victorious, the Democratic primaries leading to the formalization of the candidacy of the former vice-president continue thanks to remote voting. The conventions are currently scheduled for the weeks of August 17 on the Democratic side and August 24 on the Republican side.

France 24: With his interview with Fox News, did Donald Trump turn the page on the Covid-19 pandemic to enter the campaign for good?

Jean-Éric Branaa: The page is not turned but this interview shows that he would like it to be. Donald Trump is trying as best he can to extricate himself from this crisis that plunges him. He has made many mistakes since January-February, when he downplayed the dangers of the coronavirus. Just yesterday evening, when he refers to his dismissal trial, we see the break between him, his team and the Americans. His egocentrism, his total lack of empathy towards those who suffer and in relation to the number of dead, including in States which voted for him a lot, are likely to cost him dearly. Donald Trump never took the measure of his role as protective president of all Americans against the Covid-19.

Is the future Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, taking advantage of the situation?

Joe Biden has come out on top in many polls and, most importantly, in several key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida. Even Texas and Arizona are rocking. Six months before the election, it is really worrying for Donald Trump who has understood this since he will be going to Arizona on Tuesday to visit a medical equipment factory.

In addition, Joe Biden attacks Donald Trump on his consistency and consistency. The American feeling is really negative because with more than 70,000 dead, they are living a national drama. The fear of falling ill or losing his job settled. And it is the president who risks paying the bad things.

In times of crisis, the American people deserve a president who tells them the truth and takes responsibility. Donald Trump has not been that president. pic.twitter.com/QikZiHZeXX

Donald Trump intended to bet on his economic balance sheet. The Covid-19 turns its plans upside down…

It is obvious that the campaign themes will change. Unemployment has exploded sharply with more than 30 million Americans registered. We should be around 10%, 15%, even 20% unemployment within two months. Certain sectors such as tourism or culture will take an enormous amount of time to recover from, many subcontractors will have to close down. The crisis is there and is set to last perhaps several years. The president of the American Federal Reserve (FED), Jerome Powell, announced a few weeks ago that the recovery would happen quickly. He says the opposite now.

>> See: Covid-19 in the United States: Donald Trump returns to his favorite campaign theme, immigration

This reality does not do the business of Donald Trump. He continues to speak optimistically because he has no choice, but he will soon find himself faced with a terrible situation: the people who voted for him will find themselves unemployed.

Can the health crisis make the health system a major issue of the campaign?

It will be one of the themes, but no one will offer universal health insurance. The Americans don't want it. Joe Biden proposes to consolidate Obamacare and extend health protection for the over 65s, Medicare, to the over 60s, but that does not go any further. By contrast, Donald Trump's speech on the issue, which focused on the opioid crisis, became inaudible.

The election takes place in six months, but we can see that the debate on the vote has already started. What is at stake?

To avoid large rallies, the Democrats proposed that the November 3 vote be done exclusively at a distance, by mail, as is already possible in several states. But Donald Trump is opposed to it because there is no interest. The democratic electorate moves less easily at the polling stations while the electoral base of Donald Trump is more assiduous, so the physical vote the advantage. This debate risks keeping the Americans busy for many more weeks.

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