This economic and financial carnage caused by the epidemic can leave deep scars on the global economy, so central banks have taken up the challenge by tearing up their own rules books, the US Federal Reserve has strengthened financial markets by purchasing assets, and has provided dollar liquidity to other central banks. The European Central Bank announced that "there are no limits" to its support for the euro, and announced massive purchases of government and corporate bonds, and other assets. The Bank of England directly finances government spending, and even some central banks in emerging markets, such as the Reserve Bank of India, are considering taking exceptional measures. For all of this, central bankers, who were considered cautious and conservative, proved able to act gracefully, boldly and creatively. On the other hand, fiscal stimulus by governments has proven to be politically complex, cumbersome to implement, and often difficult to obtain when it is needed most.
Even when political leaders are unwilling to coordinate policies across borders, central bankers can act in concert. Now and for a long time to come, central banks have become entrenched as the first and primary line of defense against economic and financial crises.
Azwar Prasad - Professor of Commerce Policy at Cornell University, and Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution
As the closures began, I kept looking for historical comparisons (1914, 1929, 1941), and what I realized more than ever was the historical modernity of the shock we are experiencing. There is something new under the sun, which is shocking. The economic ramifications challenge the account, and many countries face a deeper and more brutal economic shock than before. In sectors such as retail, which are already subject to intense competition from online commerce, temporary closures may be permanent closures to them, and many will not be reopened. Stores, and you will lose their jobs permanently. Millions of workers, small business owners and their families face disaster, and the longer the closure, the deeper the economic scars, and the slower the recovery. What we thought we knew about the economy and finance radically disturbed us.
Now we are witnessing the largest joint financial effort since World War II, but it is already clear that the first round may not be enough. There are some illusions about the unprecedented acrobatics of central banks. If the response of companies and families lies in avoiding risk aversion and fleeing to safety, this will exacerbate the forces of recession, and if the public’s response to the accumulated debts of the crisis is austerity, it will only make matters worse. It makes sense to call instead for more active and more visionary governments to lead the way out of the crisis, but the question, of course, is what form these governments will take and the political forces that will control them.
Adam Toze - Professor of History and Director of the European Institute at Columbia University.
The Corona pandemic will accelerate the change that has already begun ... the transition from US-focused globalization to a more China-focused globalization. Why will this trend continue? The American people have lost faith in globalization and international trade, and free trade agreements have become toxic to him, with or without the American president, Donald Trump. On the other hand, China has not lost its faith, why? Because there are deeper historical reasons. Chinese leaders now know very well that the century of humiliation experienced by China from 1842 to 1949 was the result of its complacency and futile efforts by its leaders to cut it off the world. By contrast, the past few decades of economic recovery have been the result of global participation, and the Chinese people have gained confidence in themselves, and they believe they can compete anywhere.
As a result, the United States has two options. If its primary goal is to maintain global supremacy, it will engage in zero-geopolitical competition, politically and economically, with China. However, if the United States' goal is to improve the welfare of the American people - whose social condition has deteriorated - it should cooperate with China. A wiser lawyer suggests that cooperation is the best option, however, given the toxic US political environment toward China, wiser advice may not prevail.
Kishore Mahbubani - Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore, and author of Do You Have Won China? China Race to Challenge America »
This epidemic and subsequent recovery will accelerate digitization and automation of work, which are trends that have eroded mid-skilled jobs, while increasing highly skilled jobs over the past two decades, and this situation contributes to stagnation of middle wages and increased income inequality. Low-wage jobs with low wages and personal service will not return with recovery, especially those offered by small businesses.
Changes in demand, which are accelerated by the economic turmoil caused by the epidemic, will change the future composition of GDP, and the share of services in the economy will continue to rise, but the share of personal services will decrease in retail trade, hospitality, travel, education, and health care, where digitization leads Changes in the way these services are organized and provided.
However, the demand for workers providing basic services, such as the police, firefighting, health care, logistics, public transportation, and food, will increase, creating new job opportunities, and increasing pressure to increase wages and improve benefits in these traditionally low-wage sectors. The economic downturn will accelerate the growth of non-standard and unstable employment - such as part-time workers and workers with multiple employers - leading to new mobile benefit systems, moving with workers, expanding the definition of the employer, and new, low-cost training programs will be needed. Submit digitally to provide the skills required for new jobs.
Laura de Andrea Tyson - Professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and former chair of the Presidential Advisors to the President under President Bill Clinton
Prasad visitors:
"Central banks are tearing up their own books of rules."
Adam Toze:
"The practice of the normal economy will never return."
Kishore Mahbubani:
"More globalization centered on China."
Laura Dandria Tyson:
"Many of the lost jobs will never come back."
Some central banks in emerging markets, such as the Reserve Bank of India, are considering taking exceptional measures. For all this, central bankers, who were considered cautious and conservative, have proven able to act gracefully, boldly and creatively. On the other hand, fiscal stimulus by governments has proven to be politically complex, cumbersome to implement, and often difficult to obtain when it is needed most.
The Corona pandemic will accelerate the change that has already begun ... the transition from globalization focused on the United States to globalization more focused on China. Why will this trend continue? The American people have lost faith in globalization and international trade.
Many countries are facing a deeper and more brutal economic shock than before. In sectors such as retailing, which is already under intense competition from online commerce, a temporary shutdown for them may be permanent, many stores will not be reopened, and their jobs will be permanently lost.