In the past week, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the United States has continued to grow, surpassing one million. At present, about one-third of confirmed cases worldwide are concentrated in the United States.
In order to restart the economy , 11 states including Georgia and the United States have resumed work
At the same time, many states in the United States have begun to gradually lift control and resume work. For many Americans, the epidemic is relatively short-lived. What is more important is how to keep long-term jobs and restart the economy.
In this regard, the American "politician" news network commented that Americans are facing difficult choices to be safe or wage.
In the past week, Georgia , located in the southeastern United States , became the first state in the United States to resume work . On April 27, after being closed for nearly 6 states, Georgia ’s barber shops, gyms, movie theaters and restaurants and other commercial sites reopened.
Restaurant owner: We arrange the lead person outside the door so that people can keep their distance.
According to the resumption of work guidelines formulated by the Georgia State Government, in addition to wearing masks and gloves and timely disinfection, the employees of the reopening store should not exceed 6 customers per table in the restaurant and up to 10 customers per 500 square feet Keep a safe distance between tables.
Restaurant owner: Opening makes me very excited, because employees are like my family, they need this job, they need to make money.
According to the ABC report, the risk of resuming work for many Georgians is also helpless.
Hairdresser: On the first day of resuming work, I was very nervous, but customers made me feel safe, and I also gave them a sense of security. If I don't go to work, I will be homeless or hungry, even if I take risks, I have to return to work.
On April 22, the Governor of Georgia, Camp, claimed that the state had passed the peak of the new crown epidemic on April 6, and therefore made a decision to resume work.
Georgia Governor Kemp: This decision will allow Georgia to resume work safely without giving up.
However, many American media expressed doubts about the so-called "peak of April 6" mentioned by Camp. According to the statistics of the Georgia Department of Health, on April 13, the number of confirmed cases in the state climbed to 873 again, and the record of single-day diagnosis reached a new high. According to the guidance given earlier by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, states should ensure that the number of newly diagnosed cases is reduced for 14 consecutive days and maintained at a low number before they can resume work.
NBC reporter: Georgia does not meet the standard of resumption of work. The White House requires that the number of confirmed cases drop for 14 consecutive days before resuming work.
Georgia Governor Camp: Are you asking questions or giving comments? You have been commenting, what is your problem?
NBC reporter: The question is coming. Many people think that the time to restart the economy is not yet mature and too hasty. Can you tell us whether you judge the restart of the economy based on specific data? Is it a safe decision?
Georgia Governor Camp: I know. National Broadcasting Corporation NBC (Democratic Media) may not understand this. All data are public on the website of the public health department. What I want to say is that I very much recognize the leadership of the president. He has a very good saying today. During the epidemic, the media still wanted to divide us.
At the same time, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee, which are also controlled by Republican governors, have all joined the "Southern State Alliance". Ranks.
As of May 3 local time, 11 states in the United States have resumed work. According to the plans announced by the states, at least 20 states will resume work next week.
Foch: anxious to resume work or cause an epidemic to rebound
Fuch, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: If we resume work too quickly, the epidemic will be out of control again, which will have serious consequences, the epidemic will rebound, and everyone will be victimized. The state of the week ago.
Forge pointed out that before resuming work, the US states should at least triple the current detection rate. At present, the national detection rate in the United States is only 2%, far lower than some countries in Europe and Asia. In Georgia, which was the first to resume work, the detection rate was less than 1%.
A warning about the possible second wave of outbreaks in Fuchs. On April 20th, a large number of people in Texas supporting resumption of work were besieged in front of the state government office building and demanded the dismissal of Fuchs.
Demonstrators: Fire Foch! Fire Foch!
On the same day, in Denver, the capital of Colorado, the people who demanded to resume work faced off with local healthcare workers. The returning workers drove in front of the state government office building to whistle and demonstrate, while the medical workers blocked the road of the demonstration vehicles with their bodies.
Demonstrators: resume work and go to work. Why can you go to work, and I can't.
According to a latest poll released by the ABC in April, 72% of the people surveyed believe that the loosening of control in the United States too quickly will pose a danger to national security. As many as 80% of the respondents said that they were reluctant to go to crowded places.
According to statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 11:30 U.S. time on May 3, the number of new coronary pneumonia diagnosed in the United States has exceeded 1.13 million cases, and the number of deaths exceeded 66,000.
On April 29, in a meeting with representatives of various industries in the United States, Trump stated that the date for the nationwide resumption of work is just around the corner.
US President Trump: The target date (returned to work in the US) is just around the corner. There is nothing wrong with ensuring safety, but at the same time, people hope the country will restart its economy.
The standards for resumption of work are not up to standard, and testing and screening are not in place. Why are some Americans eager to return to work?
The BBC said the data may give the answer to this question. From mid-March to the end of April, in just six weeks, more than 30 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits, setting a record.
The BBC believes that unemployment has a special meaning in the United States compared to other developed countries. A sample survey by the Federal Reserve in 2019 showed an alarming number. 39% of Americans will encounter difficulties when they need emergency spending of US $ 400, which is about 2,800 RMB; 12% of them cannot cope with the sudden expenditure of US $ 400; the remaining 27% cannot afford a credit card cycle.
At present, the US Congress has urgently passed a $ 2 trillion aid bill to provide cash subsidies to the public.
Nevertheless, Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Chase, warned that “helicopters squander money” in the final analysis needs to be made up for by means of deficits, debt issuance, and money printing.
"Inflation may become a ticking bomb, detonated by the current economic recession."-Kelly
Several US research firm Forecast: US is likely to enter the economic recession
This week, the U.S. Department of Commerce released data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the United States. In the first quarter, US GDP fell by 4.8%. According to the predictions of many US research institutions, this is just the beginning. Since the nationwide control measures were implemented only in late March, the US GDP in the second quarter may be worse. The BBC bluntly stated that the US economy is experiencing a crisis that has never been seen before.
Dario, founder of Bridgewater Fund: The economy is starting a downward trend.
Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund: The world economy has entered a recession.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: Due to the stagnation of business activities, the economy will decline in the first and second quarters.
According to the definition of economics, when a country's GDP, that is, GDP, has experienced negative growth for two consecutive quarters, it has entered a period of economic recession.
JP Morgan chief economist Ferroli: Most calculations show that (the second quarter GDP) contraction ratio will inevitably be greater than 10%, which is probably the worst recession in history.
Economists pointed out that the economic recession will first be reflected in the job market. In late March, a large number of Americans in the catering, tourism, hotel, and aviation industries lost their jobs.
The American "Forbes" magazine listed a long list of layoffs from well-known American companies in April. Among them, Uber layoffs 5,400 people; Boeing layoffs 16,000 people; car rental company Hertz layoffs 10,000 people; Miami Airport, New York JFK Airport and New Jersey Newark Airport and other major US international airports lay off tens of thousands of people.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor, this week, about 3.84 million people received unemployment benefits. In the same period in previous years, this figure was only about 200,000. US investment bank Goldman Sachs (GOLDMAN SACHS) conservatively predicts that the US unemployment rate will surge from 3.5% in February to 15% in July. According to the latest survey data released by the US financial information company IHS Markit, business activities in the United States are shrinking to the level of the 2009 financial crisis.
Take the figures provided by OPEN TABLE, the restaurant booking site with the highest turnover in the United States as an example. In the second two weeks of March, the turnover rate of American restaurants decreased by as much as 100%. American economist Swank pointed out that the epidemic is undoubtedly a fatal blow to the US economy.
American economist Swank: This extraordinary hit is like a meteorite hitting the entire planet. We have to admit that this disaster hurt the vitality of the US economy, and two-thirds of the US economy comes from people's consumption activities. With shrinking consumer activity, the economy is bound to be fatally hit. It is not only the confidence of consumers but also the vitality of enterprises. Such a crisis is unprecedented.
U.S. food supply chain operates abnormally, meat prices soar
In Wisconsin, which is known as the "Hometown of Dairy Cows" in the United States, dairy farmers at Mueller Farms have poured out fresh milk every day.
Wisconsin dairy farmers: The hard-earned milk has to be dumped in vain, especially in the world, even in the United States, where many people are starving. We hate such waste.
It is not only the Muellers who dump milk in vain. According to statistics from the American Dairy Farmers Association, in April, dairy farmers across the country dumped as much as 3.7 million gallons of milk every day.
According to Reuters analysis, with the closure of restaurants, hotels, schools and other places, the demand in the US domestic market has dropped by nearly 50%. At the same time, other industries in the food supply chain, such as milk processing plants and logistics companies in the United States, were also unable to function normally due to the epidemic, resulting in a large number of agricultural products finally falling into the hands of farmers.
In addition to milk, according to the New York Times, a medium-sized chicken farm in the United States pierces 750,000 eggs every week that were originally intended for hatching. In Iowa, a large agricultural state, farmers bury millions of pounds of ripe onions, cabbage, soybeans and other crops every day.
On April 26, Tyson, the largest US meat product company, issued a warning: "The US food supply chain is breaking." Affected by the epidemic, many large meat processing enterprises in the United States have closed factories in many places in the United States due to the outbreak. This has caused a serious shortage of meat supply in the US market, and meat prices have skyrocketed.
American Meat Dealers: Meat prices rose by nearly 30%, 40% within a week, people began to panic, and people felt that there would be a shortage of meat supply.
On April 28, Trump invoked the National Defense Production Law to sign a presidential executive order, requiring meat processing companies to resume operations immediately.
On the next day, the head of the Union Food and Commercial Union (UFCW), a union representing meat packaging workers, said that in the event of a serious shortage of personal protective equipment and undetectable conditions, the factory could not function properly.
Laurison, the head of the trade union: The government only cares about signing government orders without considering feasibility. In the environment of the new crown epidemic, if we want to produce safely, we must reduce production, so I believe there will be a shortage of meat supply in some parts of the country.
If the prevention and control causes the epidemic to rebound, a large number of enterprises will close down
In the view of former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, before the outbreak, the US financial system was stable and domestic demand was strong. The impact of the outbreak on the US economy may be just a super blizzard.
On April 22, the "Washington Post" published a report entitled "The Terrible" W "Economic Recovery Route", warning people of the risk of a comeback.
At present, economists roughly divide the US economic recovery trend into three routes: V, U, and W: V-type represents that after the bad second quarter, the US economy rebounded strongly, and consumer confidence and business activities quickly recovered; The U-shape represents an extended period of economic downturn, and the recovery of the economy requires a relatively long time; and W represents the most unfavorable situation, that is, the economy recovers briefly as the US economy restarts, but with the resurgence of the new crown epidemic, a large number of enterprises Eventually it went bankrupt at the end of the year.
American economist Swank: If we do not take action now, a crisis in the health field may evolve into a great economic depression. We can not copy the previous countermeasures to deal with the recession. The virus has not only hit us in many ways, but also caused a heavy blow to the economy. The key to solving the problem is to respond to the economic recession and to ensure people ’s health.
French writer Tocqueville once wrote: "Americans believe that they are given an uncertain instinct to improve".
This highlights the confidence and optimism of Americans.
As for the current situation, the US "Atlantic Monthly" lamented that unlike hurricanes or mountain fires, it is not like sneak attacks on Pearl Harbor or the September 11 terrorist attacks. We have no way to mark the exact date of the end of this disaster on the calendar. Before the availability of available vaccines, rebuilding confidence may be longer than ever.
(Editor Yin Huixian)