(Fighting against New Coronary Pneumonia) Is the Chinese epidemic data falsified? Multinational scientific research institutions "strength" to refute "conspiracy theory"

　　China News Agency, Beijing, May 2 Question: China's epidemic data is falsified? Multinational scientific research institutions "strength" to refute "conspiracy theory"

　　China News Agency reporter Liu Xu

　　The New Crown epidemic continues to wreak havoc around the world. While countries are joining hands to fight the epidemic, some overseas media have fabricated the so-called "China's epidemic data falsification" and "New Crown virus originated in China", accompanied by many unfounded imaginations and guesses. Recently, a number of authoritative scientific research institutions have released a series of research results, smashing rumors with scientific conclusions "strength".

China's epidemic figures "there is no possibility of manipulation"

　　On April 28, Christopher Koch, a senior economist at the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, United States, and Ken Okamura, a research fellow at the University of Oxford ’s Said Business School, jointly published a paper proving that China has not manipulated the epidemic. digital.

　　This paper entitled "Benford's Law and COVID-19 Reporting" (Benford's Law and COVID-19 Reporting) by studying the real-time data of the epidemic situation in China, Italy and the United States, pointed out that China's real-time broadcast of the epidemic number distribution is consistent with this Ford By law, there is no possibility of being manipulated.

　　Benford's law is a statistical law used to check whether various data have fraudulent components. It is widely used in fraud detection and stock market analysis. This paper validates the number of confirmed cases, death cases, and cured cases in China, and concludes that the number of confirmed cases in China is in line with the expected distribution of Benford ’s law and is similar to the situation in the United States and Italy, so it has not been found (China Data) evidence of tampering. Policy makers in other countries and regions of the world should trust China ’s data and formulate policies accordingly.

　　The article points out that some countries' suspicions about China's epidemic situation may cause or even lead to decision-making mistakes in these countries, and the public does not support government decision-making, thereby causing harm to society. The two authors suggest that other countries should adjust China ’s response to the epidemic based on Chinese data and referring to the fruitful policies China has adopted.

The number of new coronary pneumonia cases in China "conforms to epidemiological expectations"

　　The authoritative academic journal "Nature" published the peer-reviewed paper "Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China" on April 29, which was peer-reviewed and submitted on February 18. Universities from Hong Kong, Changsha, Chengdu and Shenzhen in China, and Yale University in the United States.

　　The author writes in the abstract that sudden, large-scale and scattered human migration can expand local outbreaks into widespread epidemics. Therefore, tracking population movement quickly and accurately can provide information in epidemiology.

　　The research of this paper is based on the mobile phone data of more than 11.47 million people who moved or transited in Wuhan from January 1 to January 24, 2020. The research team stated that their research documented the effectiveness of Wuhan and China's "closing the city" measures in reducing population movements. Second, the study showed that according to the distribution of outflows from Wuhan, the new crown virus can be predicted by February 19, 2020 The frequency and geographical distribution of the occurrence across the country; third, the team developed a spatiotemporal "risk source" model that can identify high-risk risk areas early; fourth, the team uses this risk source model based on the population of Wuhan The outflow statistics show the geographic distribution and growth pattern of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.

　　Nicholas A. Christakis, one of the authors of the paper and a professor and doctor at Yale University, introduced the paper on Twitter on April 29: "This result confirms the accuracy of the number of new coronary pneumonia cases reported in China because of the information obtained from different sources ( The mobile population shown by mobile communications can predict the number of cases well and meet the epidemiological expectations (at least before February 19). "

French epidemic "caused by non-Chinese imports"

　　On April 28, the Pasteur Institute, a non-profit research center in Paris, France, issued a news announcement saying that the institute has completed research on the "traceability analysis of imported and early transmitted viruses in France." The study was co-led by Sylvie Van Deville, director of the French National Reference Center for Respiratory Infection Viruses, and Etienne Simon Loriere, head of RNA virus evolution genomics at the Pasteur Institute. The study found that the new coronavirus that is spreading in France did not originate in China. Before the global outbreak, French strains may have spread locally.

　　The researchers conducted gene sequencing, comparison and traceability analysis on 97 French virus samples and 3 virus samples from Algeria, and established a virus evolution tree map. A comparative study shows that the New Corona virus popular in France and the imported Chinese virus found in January did not come from the same strain. Although they came from the same "ancestor", they belonged to different branches. The mainstream branch leading to the local outbreak in France is different from the imported cases from China and Italy.

　　Radio France International quoted the research report as saying, "The outbreak in France was mainly caused by one or several variants of this strain ... We can infer that the virus was quietly spread in France in February", "And Most of them are mild or asymptomatic, so they have not been discovered for a long time. "

　　Some analysts said that because virus sampling in many countries is still incomplete, it is impossible to accurately estimate the source or import time of the French new coronavirus. If it is confirmed that the virus had already existed in France before it was discovered by China, the relevant research will have a huge impact. (Finish)