Deconfinement in France: an entirely green card "in the space of a few months"

"Act gradually, adapt locally", these are the watchwords of the government after the presentation, on April 28, of the plan for the deconfinement of France by Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. To do this, a map of the departments facing the Covid-19 has been published daily by the health authorities since April 30. A color code thus indicates a trend for the territories of France and Overseas.

For the mathematician Miquel Oliu-Barton, interviewed by France 24, it is "an intelligent, prudent and realistic strategy" that the executive has chosen. This lecturer finds similarities between the choice made by the government and his proposal for an "effective and secure deconfinement method" published this week in the form of a forum in Le Monde.

A mapping "which follows the four fundamental principles"

Red, yellow or green: since Thursday, the French departments are mapped daily by the health authorities with a color code indicating the state of the territory as to its current exposure to the virus.

Three criteria are taken into account to develop this map: the rate of new cases in the population over a period of seven days, the tension of hospital capacities at the regional level and the level of preparation of each territory to be able to test all patients with symptoms, as well as detect their close circle.

The map thus produced is a "strategy that follows the four fundamental principles of our proposal: cutting, marking, limiting travel and informing citizens", explains Miquel Oliu-Barton.

>> Read also: Red or green… What are the criteria of the map of departments for deconfinement

And the lecturer explains: "First, you have to divide the country into territorial units of efficient size. Then, mark in green all the territories where the virus is under control. Then, you must first limit travel between the different territories and then gradually release this ban within the green zones. Finally, citizens are informed every day of the markings in force, as well as of the measures and restrictions that are in place in each territory. "

"Spain has also announced a similar strategy based on these principles," said the mathematician. The president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sanchez, indeed presented on Tuesday a plan of progressive deconfinement until the end of June. In particular, the Covid-19 infection rate, the number of available intensive care beds and compliance with social distancing rules will be taken into account.

Towards a partitioning of the French?

Will this codification of France in different colors lead to a compartmentalization of the population depending on where we live? "Unfortunately our strategy is based on this, admits Miquel Oliu-Barton. It is only by limiting the movements that we can both identify and confine and protect the green areas a little more temporarily spared by the virus . "

Prime Minister Édouard Philippe confirmed this choice on April 28 to restrict travel "more than 100 km from home", before specifying that there may be exceptions "for a compelling, family or professional reason ".

>> See also: Deconfinement: how to do it?

But even with journeys beyond the authorized 100 km, an entirely green map of France is still possible. "Travel will never be completely prohibited," says the mathematician. "The larger the green area, the more there is a probability of re-infection. So we did a mathematical simulation and we came to the conclusion that, as long as the movements are rare enough and that this probability of becoming red again is small, we still arrives at a fully green France in the space of a few months, and in complete safety. "

The proposal for a "union of green areas" in Europe

The professions which are brought to move on all the territory, and even abroad like the road transporters, are also to be considered in the equation of the deconfinement.

"We must not think at a national level but rather at a European level as in the case of road transporters", explains Miquel Oliu-Barton. "What we are proposing is that this concept of green zones be extended to the European level to create a green marking [continent-wide, editor's note]."

This would consist of the European Union "assigning a green label to each territory - department, region or country - so that we can imagine a union of green areas where travel would be possible in complete safety", continues the master of conference.

A choice that would open up several countries and save certain sectors of their economy, such as tourism. According to Miquel Oliu-Barton, "enabling European tourism in a union of secure green areas would be extremely useful for saving the economy and jobs in the EU."

The France 24 week summary invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 app