The little Muhammad Western
Meteorologists and meteorologists expect that this year's Atlantic hurricane season will see an increase of more than 30% in hurricane numbers and intensity compared to the average activity recorded in previous years.
Numerous names have been reported in the media in the coming months, such as Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edward, which are the names of the tropical storms that are expected to hit the North Atlantic in this coming hurricane season between June and November.
A windy year,
according to studies and reports released by researchers from the universities of Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina (all American), and meteorologists from institutions specializing in the field, the hurricane season in the Atlantic will be very active, driven by warm ocean temperatures in the tropics.
According to researchers from North Carolina State University, between 18 and 22 tropical storms are expected to strike over the Atlantic Ocean in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean regions, a significant increase from the annual average recorded between 1951 and 2019, which did not exceed 11 tropical storms.
Based on historical data on hurricane sites and intensity, the researchers expected that between 8 and 11 of these storms will be strong enough to be considered hurricanes, and may reach between three and five of them to the degree of major or severe hurricanes. The Gulf of Mexico alone will witness two hurricanes and five hurricanes, to be the worst affected area during this season.
|Some hurricanes that reach land have a devastating effect (NASA)|
For their part, experts from the University of Colorado reached similar conclusions, and they expected this year's hurricane season to be nearly 30% more active than average.
Weather channel, owned by IBM, also forecast a total of 18 storms, including nine hurricanes, in the season starting on June 1.
It is higher than the seasonal average of 12 storms that have been named, including six hurricanes of which four may reach Category 3 or higher, with continuous winds of at least 178 km per hour.
Although some of these tropical storms may remain localized over seas and oceans, others can have a devastating impact on land, as Hurricane Dorian did in September 2019.
Surface surface temperature and "El Niña"
Researchers attribute this increase in hurricane activity to high ocean surface temperatures as a result of global climate changes in the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean.
"The average surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean this year is expected to be one of the warmest since 1993," researchers at the University of Arizona said in a report released on April 13.
It is known that the warming of the ocean in the tropics increases the evaporation of water, and forms the warm, humid air on its surface, which works as a fuel for hurricanes.
|The rise in the mean ocean surface temperature contributes to increasing the number and intensity of hurricanes (NASA)|
And the low atmospheric pressure above the ocean surface in turn causes more water vapor to rise, until the right conditions are available to fall again with strong air vortices.
Numerous analyzes, including those published by Weather Forecasting Channel, point to other reasons for the increase of hurricanes in the Atlantic this season, including the "El Nina" phenomenon that may develop by late summer.
It will bring cold water to the tropical Pacific and change wind patterns over the Atlantic Ocean in ways that can help increase hurricane activity.
But experts point out that the most worrying situation in the current situation with the outbreak of the Corona virus is the inconsistent containment measures that should be taken to protect from the hurricane, such as resorting to a hotel far from the affected area, finding shelter with friends, etc.