By the end of the first week of March, the entire world had realized that it was facing a real danger, with (1) the number of new cases of coronavirus reaching more than 111,000 cases in more than a hundred countries, while the epidemic had claimed the lives of four thousand A person, but in the Egyptian media, the picture was completely different and farcical, and it was a mockery that culminated in the controversial episode of the Egyptian media "Jaber Al-Qarmouti" from his program "Talking on What" broadcast on the private "Al-Hayat" satellite channel close to the authority, which was broadcast during A satirical phone call with a person who personified the "Corona virus", during which he called on the Egyptians not to panic over the news Ululation about the epidemic, stressing that Egypt is "different from any other place in the world", and that the effects of the disease does not exceed the symptoms of "cold" normal can infect anyone.

This deliberate understatement of the threat of the epidemic, which occurred paradoxically only two days before the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic virus, and at a time when Egypt had officially recorded 56 cases of the disease, it was not the brainchild of "Al-Qarmouti" or inspired by his imagination Personal seems to be, at that time, it seemed that ignoring the risk and underestimating it was a systematic policy (2) that was followed by the official and semi-official media, owned and directed by the sovereign agencies in Egypt, in the face of reliable reports from multiple countries such as Taiwan, Canada, France, and others. Of tourists with Corona virus after their visit to Egypt.

The denial was not confined to the media. In mid-February, Health Minister Hala Zayed surprised Egyptians and the world with a shocking statement, during which she assured that the virus will not infect Egyptians, because "it lives in China and not in Egypt," stressing that "the virus is not contagious." Dangerously, "and that it does not intend to prevent Chinese tourists from entering the country because the World Health Organization does not recommend this, although everyone, led by the Minister of Health herself, was compelled to face harsh realities, at least partially, at a later time, with the first injury recorded for a person An Egyptian was infected with the virus on March 5, before infections continued during the days following Egypt's registration Raped 300 official cases by March 19, two weeks after the first injury was recorded, without any official comment from a prominent government official about what the state intends to do to cope with the outbreak.

During this period, the state of denial continued to dominate the Egyptian media scene despite increasing casualties, before the Egyptian government found itself finally compelled to intervene after two weeks of silence, to finally issue decisions to close all restaurants, cafes, nightclubs and public places throughout the country all from seven in the evening. Until six o'clock in the morning, other decrees were followed by suspending the work of educational institutions and stopping the practice of religious rituals and prayers in mosques and churches, although these measures did not prevent the government from trying to impose its media narration about the virus and block any independent media coverage, This includes the suspension of the Guardian newspaper correspondent license in Egypt because of its coverage (3) of the results of a study conducted by specialists at the University of Toronto estimated the true number of Corona patients in Egypt at a number between 6 thousand and 19 thousand injured, other than the arrest of the Egyptian Ministry of Interior at least ten People charged with spreading false news regarding the number of people afflicted with the disease in Egypt on social media.

Egypt Ministry of Health refute claims of the Guardian about number of Corona cases in the country. https://t.co/KzTCFZtIbn

- sherif ahmed 🇪🇬 (@ sherifa78060270) March 16, 2020

However, this fabricated monopoly of the media narrative about the spread of the epidemic was not the most striking phenomenon as much as the dramatic and mysterious disappearance of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, known for his love for media appearances, as Sisi waited until March 22, 17 days after Registering the first official case of infection, before it showed a limited appearance during the celebration of Mother’s Day, calling on the Egyptians to adhere to the precautionary measures, and announced the allocation of an amount of one hundred billion Egyptian pounds (about $ 6 billion) to confront the virus, without forgetting, of course, to tease the skeptics in the extent of the sincerity of state data And the seriousness of its procedures in th Deal with the disease.

Al-Sisi's appearance appeared to be a prelude to a new (4) more serious package of sanitary isolation measures issued by the government on March 24, which included imposing a curfew on all public roads at night and throughout Friday and Saturday, and stopping public and private transport during the same period and closing All shops and crafts during the night periods, reducing the number of state employees and stopping real estate, traffic and civil registry services, but the government soon began to see the widespread impact of the embargo measures on the economy and livelihood in the country and realizes the limitations of its ability to compensate for the extensive damage that affected workers today Those whose jobs have stopped completely and the private sector employees who have been demobilized due to the embargo, not to mention the pressures of businessmen calling for the resumption of economic activity, which prompted the government to gradually reduce the hours of the embargo and reduce its conditions by allowing the resumption of work in the vital construction sector, and later allowing stores to open Commercial and shopping centers during the day, seven days a week.

Seemingly, the Egyptian government decided that the repercussions of the long-term economic closure may be more serious (5) than the spread of the disease itself, in conjunction with its awareness of the difficulty of implementing a total ban in a country with more than 20 million people of daily and irregular employment without strong social support measures It seems that the government is unwilling or unable to implement it, but this policy - short-sighted - may prove dangerous and costly soon if the virus continues to spread in Egypt, and if it reaches prevalence rates close to those in the United States and Europe, especially in light of The weak health sector in the country and its limited ability to reach I hope that with large numbers of injuries at the same time, even at the economic level, it is unlikely that a partial resumption of activity will be sufficient to protect Egypt from the negative economic effects of the disease, the depth of which will depend on the size and duration of the outbreak, other than what the potential economic recession in the country carries. Political consequences for the stability of the Egyptian regime in the medium and long term.

the bell of danger

Egyptian Minister of Health Hala Zayed (Egyptian Press)

Up to the present moment, it appears that the frequency of the spread of the Corona virus in Egypt is still largely under control, although there are many doubts about the reliability of official figures due to the severe restrictions imposed by the Egyptian authorities on the numbers of examined and the absence of any special centers authorized to conduct Corona tests , Numbers of deaths and serious injuries are still under control, given that these exact numbers may be difficult to keep out of sight for a long time.

However, there are many indications that Cairo may be on the verge of facing difficult days in the face of Corona, as the epidemic continues to spread globally, and in light of reports that the peak of infections in Egypt may be during late May and June In the next two months, and in light of the horrific rates of infection among medical staff and the successive closure of hospitals due to injuries among doctors and nursing staff, it is not unlikely that matters will spin out of control during the coming weeks, especially in light of the severe fragility (6) of the Egyptian health system and the chronic shortage of funding for this sector .

For example, health spending rates in Egypt recorded a continuous decline from 6.7% in 2000 to 4.2% in 2016, and in fiscal 2018-2019, per capita spending on health care was only $ 25 per citizen, which is a meager figure Very compared to the global average of $ 1,000 per citizen, not to mention the acute shortage in the number of "intensive care" beds and hospital beds in general, where in Egypt there is hardly one bed for every 813 citizens, compared to a bed for every 363 citizens in Italy whose health system has completely collapsed in Face the virus.

Bad news is not limited to this point, in conjunction with the acute shortage of logistical capabilities of the medical sector, Egypt faces a shortage of no less serious numbers of medical personnel, out of 220 thousand doctors who got a permit to practice the profession, 120 thousand of them left to work abroad (65 of them 65 One thousand doctors work in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia alone), while 40 thousand other doctors do not work on the strength of the official health system in Egypt, and they prefer to work in private hospitals and clinics, and as a result, the number of doctors working in the sectors of the Ministry of Health is only 57 thousand doctors, which is a number Hardly enough to meet the growing sector needs.

In light of this, Egypt today has a very low rate for the number of doctors compared to international rates, as the country has only 10 doctors for every 10,000 citizens, compared to 32 doctors for every 10,000 citizens globally, meaning that the average number of doctors in Egypt is barely a third of the global average And while the waves of immigration continue at increasing rates among doctors due to low salaries (the salaries of most government doctors in Egypt range between 200 and 350 dollars), Egypt has become a major deficit in the number of doctors, especially in critical specialties such as emergency, intensive care and anesthesia, which portends a great danger If the number of serious cases increases All great.

However, the difficulties that Egypt faces in the time of Corona are not limited to the expected deficiencies in the level of health care alone, with Egypt imposing partial closure measures to counter the spread of the virus, the government has become required to take a package of economic measures to compensate the most affected groups, stimulate consumption and prevent the economy from entering into Recession. These economic stimulus measures included reducing interest rates by 3%, exempting foreigners from capital gains taxes, providing financial allocations to finance the industrial private sector, and disbursing aid to informal workers.

The private sector in Egypt does not seem eligible to deal with the Corona crisis in the absence of government support. Some companies have resorted to layoffs a large part of the workforce or reduce employee salaries.

Reuters

However, these initiatives and measures are not likely to be sufficient to address the economic and social weakness that makes Egypt increasingly fragile in the face of the disease, according to the article of the researcher, Majed Mandour, entitled "The fragility of Egyptian measures to combat the epidemic" published in the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (7) ), This growing vulnerability of vital sectors in Egypt such as health and social security can be attributed to "giving the government a high priority since 2015 for military spending and wasting money on mega projects", and even the economic reform plan that Egypt has adopted in partnership with the IMF since 201 6 It only contributed to making matters worse for the Egyptians (despite the improvement of the macroeconomic indicators), as reducing government spending on support and services increased poverty rates to 30% according to official figures and 50% according to unofficial data, which led to a decline in domestic demand Low consumption, and by extension, reduced private sector growth prospects and made them more vulnerable to shocks.

As a result, the private sector in Egypt today (employing about 23 million people) does not seem eligible to deal with the crisis in the absence of government support, and therefore, many medium and small companies today had to close their doors, while some companies resorted to layoffs a large part of The workforce or reducing the salaries of employees in impressive proportions, in addition to the fact that most workers in the private sector do not enjoy any level of social welfare while being dependent on the strength of the informal sector, which means that they are not involved in the social insurance system that has a number of participants Only 48% of workers are in jobs Standing in the public and private sectors.

In an attempt to solve this problem, the House of Representatives passed a new law in July 2019 stipulating the payment of unemployment compensation amounting to 75 percent of the salary that a person was receiving during his work, in the first three months of leaving his job, provided that these dues were gradually reduced later However, this law does not apply to the majority of the Egyptian workforce, given that they work in the informal sector, and do not pay social security contributions, which means that the government's ability to provide support to those who lose their jobs due to the crisis will be very limited.

Daily Workers (Al-Jazeera)

The biggest problem (8) in this regard remains the situation of daily workers, or those known as informal labor (more than 20 million people make up 30% of the workforce in Egypt), and most of these have completely lost their sources of income due to partial closure policies and fears of the spread The virus, and the government decided to give each worker an amount of 500 Egyptian pounds (about $ 32) in one installment, in an attempt to help them overcome the effects of the closure, but this amount is very small in the face of an epidemic that can last for a long time, which leaves the vast majority of Egyptian society is in a very vulnerable position in the face of disease, with increasing poverty and steadily rising The unemployment rates and the fragility of the health system, all of which demonstrate the government's inability to protect Egyptians in the midst of a severe crisis.

under pressure

On the macroeconomic level, the picture does not appear to be similarly blurred and gloomy, according to many indicators: Macroeconomic performance (9) in Egypt was good during 2019, and for many investors, Egypt was a rising star in the sky of emerging economies after the growth rate reached Economy during the first half of the fiscal year 2019-2020, about 5.6%, up from 5.3 in the previous year, and less than 2% during 2012 and 2013, and after tourism revenues achieved a remarkable recovery during the last two years, but the Egyptian economy began to show signs of slowing down during the quarter The first of 2020, in line with the feelings Economic conditions for Egyptians whose conditions were not affected by macroeconomic growth, however.

As evidence of this slowdown, the PMI in Egypt, which provides a look at the performance of the non-oil private sector, scored 47.1 points during the month of February (a number less than 50 indicates a decline and contraction of the sector), and this is the sixth month in a row In which the sector suffers from deflation due to the decrease in demand and the decline in the capabilities and morale of consumers, especially consumers in major cities, and with the outbreak of the Corona virus, this slowdown is likely to increase, while the country will find itself obliged to reduce the tax burden on companies to help them continue to work, and provide Energy at discounted prices To maintain industrial activity.

However, government stimulus measures are unlikely to be sufficient to relieve the pressures generated by the outbreak of the Corona virus on various sectors of the economy, especially in the tourism and industrial sectors, which contribute 16% and 12% of GDP in Egypt, respectively, in light of the stoppage of air traffic and tourism activity The decline in global demand for manufactured products, and this is likely to eventually put pressure on Egypt's foreign currency resources while losing tourism revenues and a large share of its exports.

Otherwise, with the slowdown in industrial and commercial activity around the world, the layoffs of millions of workers, and the reduction of salaries and payments, it is logical to expect that the foreign currency earnings brought by the Suez Canal and the remittances of Egyptians working abroad will also be affected, especially in light of the crisis in the host Gulf countries For Egyptian workers due to low oil prices, and given that these two sources together represent 14% of GDP, we can easily expect the size of the crisis that the Egyptian economy will face in the coming months.

In fact, it seems that the early indicators of this crisis are already beginning to emerge. Although Egypt asserts that the central bank governor has a cash reserve sufficient to protect it from economic shocks for a year or two, the rapid pace with which the monetary reserve eroded during the month of March due to the repercussions The Corona virus, and its drop of more than $ 5 billion from $ 45.5 billion to $ 40.1 billion, tells us that the government's optimistic outlook may not be entirely realistic.

In this context, (10) independent economic studies expect that the Egyptian economy can lose between 2.3 to 2.6 billion US dollars in every month in which the crisis and closure policies continue, equivalent to a decrease of 0.7% -0.8% of GDP per month. The expected pace, the country's monetary reserve may reach critical levels between 6 months to a year at best, while the cumulative losses of the economy can reach from 2.1% to 4.8% of GDP in a year, which means that the expected growth of the economy is swallowed completely In pessimistic estimates, cut it in half (about 2%) according to analogical estimates Optimism. 

However, these are not considered very bad numbers in a year in which everyone expects that the economies of the major countries will enter into a period of deflation, while international institutions expect the Egyptian economy to maintain growth, albeit at slower rates than expected, and it seems that the general indicators of the economy In Egypt, it will maintain a good performance compared to other emerging markets during the crisis, but the country's reliance on debt-driven stimulus and the dollar's fragile sources such as loans, grants, selling debt and hot money will exacerbate economic pressure on Egypt and complicate the economic recovery measures in the long run.

The exchange rate of the Egyptian pound is likely to be the main victim of these policies. Although, earlier in 2017, Egypt edited the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound, many believe that the government is still partially interfering in controlling the exchange rate, but with the main sources receiving the dollar In Egypt for early and decisive strikes, pressure will increase on the central bank to preserve the value of the currency, and it will either have to spend more precious dollars to prevent the pound from falling, or leave the currency to drop again and allow the parallel market to return, although the expected drop of the pound will not be at the same pace that Updated before 2017.

In order to face this sharp decrease in foreign currencies, Egypt is likely to resort to international borrowing, and Cairo has already confirmed that it is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund to obtain a new loan to meet the implications of Corona under the rapid financing mechanism of the fund with a value ranging from 3 to 4 billion dollars, while Minister of International Cooperation Rania Al-Mashat confirmed that she is negotiating with 100 international institutions for loans, but the great competition from faltering economies for international loans is likely to make Egypt's task of obtaining more money more difficult and slow, and last but not least, it is likely that she will suffer (11) To persuade investors to invest in Egyptian bonds in light of the uncertainty of the global economic situation, and they will have to provide very generous interest rates to persuade investors to purchase their debts, especially in light of reports that indicate the decline in foreign holdings of Egyptian treasury bonds from 28 billion dollars to 13.5 billion Only dollars.

As a result of these factors combined, it seems that Egypt is struggling to reach a coherent financial strategy to deal with the economic repercussions of the Corona crisis, at a time when the government appears to be taking measures that have contradictory effects. While it is trying to protect the pound and slow the public’s efforts to buy the dollar, it has at the same time By reducing interest rates on the money deposited in the Egyptian pound, which makes it less attractive to depositors, and at the time it seeks to stimulate consumption by reducing interest rates in order to facilitate the borrowing process for individuals and companies and pump more liquidity into the economy, it places restrictions on the amount of the mother Of which can be withdrawn on a daily basis leads to a contraction of the amount of money circulating in the market and the decline in consumption and economic activity.

In the face of the storm

The above data tell us one of the difficulties that the government will face to mitigate the impact of the Corona pandemic, especially since the country's political institutions have been designed primarily to protect the interests of the narrow military elite, which makes it unable to respond effectively to a major public health crisis, and with its economic model based Mainly to improve the overall figures and indicators of the economy through debt-financed spending while the social coverage of the poor classes is gradually being removed and millions of people are thrown into poverty or fragility.

However, the medium and long-term repercussions of the Corona outbreak in Egypt will not be limited to the health and economic fields. As the virus continues to spread for a longer period, its effects will begin to come into contact with the narrow and tightly closed political field in Egypt, and during the early stages of the outbreak, the system is likely to seek to benefit From the outbreak of the disease to concentrating power and strengthening the security grip further, which is already beginning with the approval of the Legislative and Constitutional Affairs Committee in the House of Representatives to make amendments to the emergency law to give the president new powers in the areas of public health and the economy that include the authority to suspend the study and cancel Aq government agencies and stop the payment of utility bills and services and provide support to the sectors and individuals distress and the imposition of special taxes to cope with the crisis.

Al-Sisi prefers that the government endure some shocks, which may give him some political flexibility to change faces and adjust policies if they prove to be increasingly unpopular

Reuters

On the surface, (12) these new powers allow Sisi to credit himself to the economic relief measures that will be taken in the coming months that can increase popular support for him (many leaders around the world have successfully exploited the Corona crisis to enhance support for their people and their policies), But if these measures ultimately prove to be insufficient or if the number of deaths and injuries exceeds the state’s containment capacity, a large number of Egyptians will become angry and frustrated by the regime’s inability to assist them, and this will undermine popular support for Sisi in the long run.

Realizing this fact, perhaps, Sisi is trying - as usual - to put a distance between him and the controversial closure measures, preferring to give expanded powers to the government to lead the field efforts to contain the epidemic and take responsibility for economic closure policies, where the president does not seem to want to bear the full consequences of the spread The epidemic and the resulting economic crises, and it is preferable this time that the government endures some shocks, which may give it some political flexibility to change faces and adjust policies if they prove to be increasingly unpopular.

Likewise, with the exception of the exciting media footage that Sisi and the army are keen to record on these occasions, which included a review of the medical capabilities of the army and military hospitals, it seems clear that the army does not play a major or pivotal role yet in efforts to contain the crisis, perhaps primarily due to the fact that the virus It hit a number of army leaders early on, causing the death of at least two prominent brigades and the entry of a large number (13) of commanders into quarantine, including the head of the General Intelligence Service and the right-wing Sisi arm, Abbas Kamil, which raised concerns about a widespread outbreak of the epidemic. The ranks of the army chiefs, etc. If you put the soldiers's share on the front lines to cope with the disease, and the risk of transmission of the disease to them and then transferred to their leaders.

However, the long-term impact of these new trends is still unclear, and it is difficult to be certain if the crisis will persuade Sisi of the importance of establishing a distance between the military and the delicate arrangements for governance and management of the country to protect it from the consequences of sudden crises, by forming a new political party or Heading an existing political party from which a strong private government can emerge with the approaching parliamentary elections scheduled for this year, or Sisi will eventually prefer to return to the same approach that actually deals with the army as the ruling party, especially if the outbreak forced him to put the military on Step I stand up to the epidemic.

At the grassroots level, it is difficult to imagine discontent with the widespread outbreak of the epidemic or the lack of government measures taken to confront it, or even its economic repercussions, into a wave of mass protest in the short term. On the one hand, disease fears will make the angry masses less willing to expose themselves to danger through crowding in the streets On the other hand, the spread of the disease will give an additional pretext to the security services to suppress any possible protests, but the accumulation of discontent would devour Sisi’s already eroding balance and pave the way for popular movements at the earliest opportunity, especially if the tourism sector remains closed until the year Future, and if the system decided to impose austerity measures to deal with the budget crisis, or in the worst case scenario, if the crisis has hampered the government's ability to provide basic goods for its citizens, whether due to a lack of foreign currency, or because it is difficult to import from abroad.

Any manifestations of popular discontent will hinder the regime's ability to portray itself as a bastion of political and economic stability, and pressure on the system will increase in particular if a democratic administration rises to the White House at the end of the year 2020, with potential demands for political reforms - if cosmetic - , Pressures that are likely to increase every time the state proves unable to perform one of its primary functions, which is to protect its people in times of crisis.