North Korea: what would happen if Kim Jong-un were to die?

One of the last photos of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, dated April 11, 2020. He has not been seen in public for two weeks. STR / KCNA VIA KNS / AFP

Text by: Joris Zylberman Follow

The supreme leader of North Korea did not attend the official ceremonies on April 15 and is still absent from the political scene. The rumors about his state of health have grown. Is he dying or just protecting himself from the Covid-19? What would happen if he had to leave power?

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The Seoul authorities remain cautious. According to Kim Yeon-chul, South Korean Minister for Unification, a life threat does not explain the absence of Kim Jong-un at traditional ceremonies for the birthday of his grandfather Kim Il-sung, founder of the Democratic Republic of Korea. Kim Jong-un , whose train was observed in Wonsan on the east coast of the country, is said to be in solitary confinement as a precaution in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.

It has been two weeks since the current supreme leader in Pyongyang has not been seen in public. An unprecedented absence that has fueled speculation about his state of
health. Citing a North Korean source, Daily NK, a Seoul-based news site, reported last week that he had a heart operation on April 12. The leader is known to have obesity and smoking problems. For the Japanese media, Kim would be in a "  vegetative state  " after "  having grabbed his chest and then fallen to the ground  ".

Since then, the North Korean official press has given no evidence of the leader's life, other than a message of encouragement to North Korean workers broadcast without a photo of Kim. Anna Fifeld, the North Korea specialist at the Washington Post, says that he is "  still in power but not showing off in front of a camera  ."

Seoul sweeps the rumors

It is true that he has never missed Kim Il-sung's birthday since taking office, but many celebrations and a banquet have been canceled due to concerns about the coronavirus ," said Kim Yeon. -chul, during a parliamentary audience. I don't think it's particularly unusual
in the current situation.
 Twice since mid-January, said South Korean minister Kim Jong-un has not appeared in public for nearly 20 days.

According to the Seoul government, the information according to which he was operated on from the heart is therefore false, as is the sending of a Chinese medical team to North Korea.

American side, same restraint. This Tuesday, Donald Trump said, without further
details, having a "  very good idea  " of the health of Kim Jong-un, suggesting that his life was not in danger.

Despite this caution, many observers from North Korea agree on one point: this situation is not normal. Hence a series of legitimate questions about the possible scenarios if Kim Jong-un were to die.

How would the world learn of his death?

The regime north of the Korean peninsula is one of the most secretive and opaque in the world. A fortiori for all that regards the health of its highest leader. Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un's father, had been dead for two days when information circulated outside the first circle of power in Pyongyang.

If her son died, the world would find out through a sudden announcement on state television. It's the custom: if a presenter in a black dress suddenly appears on the screen, it's because Kim is dead. In this case Ri Chun-hee, the veteran of the North Korean television news which has chanted for decades the great moments of the country, overflowing with joy to acclaim its successes and burst into tears in the event of tragic news.

Whether it's a missile fire or a successful nuclear test, she wears a pink joseon-ot , one of the traditional dresses in North Korea, known as the hanbok in the south of the peninsula. When she revealed the disappearances of Kim Il-sung in 1994 and her son Kim Jong-il in 2011, her dress was a funeral black.

Would the successor necessarily be called Kim?

Officially named the People's Democratic Republic, North Korea has, however, always been governed by one of the members of the same family since its foundation in 1948. The legitimacy claimed by the Workers' Party rests on Kim Il-sung's fight against the Japanese occupier and then against the United Nations coalition led by the Americans during the Korean War (1950-53).

The Party has since maintained its grip on North Korean society - "  unity of mind  " is one of its oldest slogans. No one expects an insurrection against him if Kim were to die.

According to Andrei Lankov of the Korea Risk Group, interviewed by Reuters, "  North Korean generals and high-ranking politicians will not start a power struggle, or it will be a limited struggle. They would accept a new leader from the Kim family.  "

Who are the candidates for Kim's family?

Kim Jong-un is said to have three children. Among them, we only know that the second is a girl. The fact remains that they are too young to replace their father.

Kim Jong-un's sister and representative, Kim Yo-jong, with South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his partner, during the PyeongChang Olympic Games. Yonhap via REUTERS

His sister Kim Yo-jong is one of the closest advisers to the current North Korean leader. In 2018, she was her representative at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games in the South. She accompanied Kim Jong-un on her diplomatic adventures and even issued press releases on her own behalf. She is a substitute member of the Poliburo of the Workers' Party and today the highest dignitary of the Kim family. However, North Korean society remains very conservative and has never been led by a woman.

As for Jong-nam, one of Kim Jong-un's brothers, he could have been his natural successor if he had not been murdered in 2017, covered with a deadly nerve agent at Kuala Lumpur airport . A murder which, according to experts, bears the signature of Pyongyang.

Kim also has an older brother, Jong-chol, known to be a fan of English guitarist Eric Clapton. He showed no political ambition.

The close family list would be incomplete without Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju. She has an unprecedented public status and even received the title of First Lady in 2018.

Among the other members of the clan, only Kim Pyong-il, Kim Jong-il's half-brother, is also mentioned . He was the North Korean ambassador to several Eastern European countries for decades. But he was recalled in 2019 from his last post in the Czech Republic. No one has heard from him since. He could nevertheless be an alternative candidate for Kim Yo-jong, supported by the North Korean conservatives opposed to the accession of a woman to supreme power.

What about a successor outside the Kim clan?

Kim Jong-un has not publicly named a successor, but his official number two is Choe Ryong-hae. Member of the Presidium of the Party Politburo, the holy of power saints in Pyongyang, he is also the first vice-president of the State Council, the executive government of North Korea.

Choe is extremely powerful and could even be related to the Kim family by marriage. The public does not know if Kim Yo-jong has a husband, but according to the South Korean press, it could be Choe's son.

Coronavirus more dangerous than Kim's death

Is Kim Jong-un's possible death North Korea's number one problem, however? Far from it, recalls Peter Hayes, director of the Nautilus Institute , an Australian think tank . For him, the country is "  a black box of the coronavirus pandemic, whose opacity threatens everyone  ". From Beijing to Tokyo via Seoul, all fear contamination via traders and refugees crossing the border.

Can North Korean management manage a massive health crisis? Not to mention the famine caused by the quarantine of workers in a nation with a most fragile economy. The challenge would be much greater for Pyongyang than finding a successor to Kim Jong-un.

Read also: Whoever its leader, Washington wants a nuclear-free North Korea

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