Foreign Policy: Five scenarios for what would happen if North Korea collapsed

Writer Oriana Sklar Mastro says that hereditary dictatorships rarely last more than three generations, and she asks: What would happen if it turns out that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un died and the regime collapsed in his country? Multiple scenarios are presented.

The writer - an assistant professor of security studies at Georgetown University and a resident researcher at the American Enterprise Institute - says the situation is difficult in North Korea, where there is no clear successor to Kim, and instability in the country will have immediate and long-term effects on the region, and on competition between the United States and China .

Mastro presents five scenarios that she believes would happen if the regime collapsed in North Korea, which has ruled for seven decades, as follows:

1- Rapid collapse
The writer says that if the system collapses, this will happen quickly. The common feature of family dictatorships is the rapid and often unexpected collapse. She adds that there is currently no formidable external challenge to the Kim dynasty, nor by the military, but that does not tell much about the country's future, as the heir will be Kim Yoo Jung.

2- Preparation and training
The United States is somewhat prepared, and the US military plans two main scenarios: North Korea’s attack on South Korea and the collapse of the former.

The writer says that the United States conducted a number of annual joint exercises with South Korea to test and refine its preparedness for such emergency situations, in light of the expected influx of refugees caused by food shortages, political instability due to inter-factional fighting, and civil war that may result from regime change, Or the coup.

But the author says that this willingness does not help much. The United States has postponed or curtailed major joint exercises with South Korea since 2018, and its aircraft carriers designated for the region have been fighting the coronavirus.

3- Securing weapons
North Korea's nuclear weapons must be secured quickly. The United States will face many challenges, along with South Korea, in the event of a collapse in the north, but securing and destroying nuclear weapons and related facilities will be a top priority.

A key part of North Korea's strategy to combat weapons of mass destruction is to prevent the spread of materials and weapons outside the peninsula to new actors.

The United States is likely to seek to surround all parts of the country to prevent nuclear materials from going out of the hands of other rogue actors or even terrorist organizations.

4- Leading the initiative
China will take the military lead, whether the United States likes it or not, and one of the big problems is that the US contingency planning does not sufficiently take into account the role of the Chinese forces in this context.

As for Chinese intervention, it will be largely confined to dealing with refugees along the borders, and any measures taken by China would support North Korea.

But changes in Chinese military capabilities, growing concerns about nuclear security, and setting priorities for geopolitical competition with the United States have encouraged China to expand its thinking in recent years.

China is likely to launch massive military intervention with the aim of expanding regional influence if a major conflict breaks out on the Korean peninsula. Recent Chinese comments and military training exercises also indicate increased preparations for intervention.

It is possible that the Chinese army will reach the North Korean nuclear facilities sooner than the US or South Korean forces, thanks to China's geographical proximity to North Korea, the circumference of its forces, and the possibility that the North Korean forces show relatively low resistance to the Chinese forces.

5- America’s retreat
The collapse of the Kim regime is likely to lead to a decline in America’s position in Asia, as the future of the US’s role in Asia is due to its response to the instability on the Korean peninsula.

The instability caused by the collapse of the Kim regime will surely lead to a civil war that may include the United States as an ally of South Korea, and hundreds of thousands of troops will be required to stabilize and eliminate weapons of mass destruction in North Korea. The choice to detonate any American nuclear weapons inside North Korea will lead to "massive results."