Climate researchers: 2020 can be the hottest year measured

2019 was globally the second warmest year since the temperature measurements started. The average temperature was just 0.04 degrees colder than the record year 2016. Now, climate scientists are pointing out that 2020 may hit that record, The Guardian reports.

January was the hottest January month so far. February and March are the second warmest February and March months, according to NOAA, the United States Climate Office in North Carolina. Based on observed variations from previous years, researchers have now calculated that there is a 75 percent probability that 2020 will be the hottest year ever.  

According to climate scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, the probability is 60 percent, while British meteorological institute The Met Office is more cautious and estimates a 50 percent risk for a record year.

Erik Kjellström, professor of climatology at SMHI, is not surprised. 

- There have been some really hot months at the beginning of the year, which makes 2020 very possibly the hottest year we have observed. It follows well the long-term development. I would be much more surprised if it gets a cold year, he says. 

Johan Kuylenstierna, vice chairman of the Climate Policy Council and former head of the Stockholm Environment Institute, thinks it is more important to look at trends than specific years.  

- It's pretty uninteresting about 2020 it will be the hottest or not. If it is among the hottest years, the trend is still clear.

However, what makes 2020 stand out is that the weather phenomenon of El Niño is not strong this year. The 2016 heat record was partly because El Niño, with high temperatures over large parts of the Pacific, was extra strong.

- It means, after all, that a hot year is now a little more startling than if you have a warm year when you have El Niño, says Johan Kuylenstierna. 

In addition, it is so - contrary to what one might think - that the reduced air pollution due to the corona virus contributes to global warming. 

- No matter how funny it may sound, the clearer air contributes to the air getting warmer. That effect can contribute to some tenth of a degree in a global perspective. At the same time, this year's reduced carbon dioxide emissions have no direct impact on the climate right now.