Analysis: The aviation industry is basically redrawed

For an already stressed aviation industry, it is now clear that the Corona crisis is not something that goes on for a few weeks. Although several countries intend to resume certain routes, it is far from normal. The message from politicians and responsible experts in Sweden is that we can expect to vacation at home this summer. And even if flights were to go, it is virtually impossible to plan a vacation when you do not know if a country is still struggling with the spread of infection and where restaurants and shops are closed or bathing on the beach is prohibited.

There is no longer any travel market to speak of. It is with this insight that SAS notifies 5000 of its employees. Not all notifications are dismissals, but when planes are on the ground and can stand on the ground for a long time, SAS and other airlines are fighting for their survival. Costs must be removed, and that quickly.

After the debt-laden Norwegian estimated that they do not see a normal demand for flights until next year, so to speak in the cards. Air carrier Lufthansa has flagged that they will not survive unless they receive support from several European countries.

Although holidaymakers are rubbish on the ice, the aviation industry's bread and butter are the business travelers. Our summer trips are important, but the rest of the year it is the companies that keep the airlines in the air a lot.

As more and more companies begin to understand the benefits of digital meetings and that much of a company's problem can be solved remotely, it is uncertain how business travel will look in the future. And when will we be comfortable being crowded again, meeting hundreds of people at a conference. Nobody knows.

In the US, airlines have tried to replace passenger traffic with air cargo. But the Corona crisis also raises the question of how sustainable our travels have been. Before the crisis, the market for aviation in Europe was red-hot with over-establishment, thousands of aircraft ordered and prices depressed at rarely seen levels. In the US, the aviation market is dominated by a few giants. This is likely to be the case in Europe as well. With fewer airlines and less competition, ticket prices are also likely to increase. In the wake of the climate crisis, many want to see reduced air travel. That trend can now get an involuntary push from a pandemic no one could predict.