The computer models on which the Spanish expert works, seem to be compatible with the outbreak around the world, with more cases outside of the tropics. Araijo believes that if Covid-19 shares a similar sensitivity to temperature and humidity, this may mean that coronavirus cases will erupt at different times around the world.
The researcher says, "It is reasonable to expect that the two viruses (the current one that occurred in 2003) will share similar behavior." He continued, "But this is not one variable equation. The virus is transmitted from person to person, and the more people in any place, the more they communicate with each other." The number of infections has increased, ”he said, explaining that human behavior is the key to understanding the current spread of the virus.
A study from the University of Maryland showed that the virus spread more in cities and regions of the world, where the average temperatures were from five degrees to 11 degrees Celsius, and the relative humidity was low, but there were large numbers of cases in the tropics, too. A recent analysis by researchers at Harvard Medical School suggests that this epidemic coronavirus will be less weather sensitive than many would hope.
They concluded that the rapid growth of cases in cold and dry provinces, in China, such as Jilin and Heilongjiang, along with the rate of transition in tropical locations, such as Guangxi and Singapore, indicate that increased temperatures and humidity, in the spring and summer, will not lead to a decrease in cases. This, they say, underscores the need for large-scale health intervention to control the disease.
Seasonal changes
The spread of the virus depends on much more than its ability to survive in the environment, and here the understanding of the seasonality of diseases becomes complicated. For a disease such as "Covid 19", it is people who spread the virus, now, and therefore seasonal changes in human behavior can also lead to changes in infection rates.
Measles cases in Europe, for example, tend to increase with study times, and decrease during holidays, when children do not transmit the virus to each other. It was also pointed out that the massive immigration of people during the celebration of the Chinese Lunar New Year, on January 25, played a major role in the spread of "Corona", from Wuhan to other cities in China and the world.
Weather can also mess with our immune systems, making us more vulnerable to infection. There is evidence to suggest that vitamin D levels in our bodies can have an effect on our vulnerability to infectious diseases. And in the winter, the vitamin is reduced, because we spend more time indoors, covering ourselves with clothes to cope with the cold air, but some studies have found that this theory is unlikely to explain the seasonal variation that appears in diseases such as influenza.
Most controversial is whether cold weather weakens our immune systems. Some studies indicate that they do this, but others believe that the cold can actually increase the number of cells that defend our bodies from infection.
However, there is stronger evidence that moisture can have a greater impact on our exposure to disease. And when the air is particularly dry, it is believed that this reduces the amount of mucus covering our lungs and airways, and this viscous secretion constitutes a natural defense against infections, and with little of it we are more vulnerable to viruses.
Weather conditions
One of the interesting studies conducted by scientists in China indicates that there is a kind of relationship between the severity of "corona" and weather conditions. In Wuhan, they examined 2,300 deaths and analyzed humidity, temperature, and pollution on the day they occurred.
Although it has not yet been published, in an academic journal, research by Chinese scientists indicates that mortality rates were lower on days when humidity and temperature levels were higher, but this work also depends to a large extent on computer models, so it remains to be explored The exact nature of this relationship, and whether it will be seen in other parts of the world.
Because the virus that causes a new Corona epidemic, it is unlikely that many people will have immunity to it until they become infected and recover, and this means that the virus will spread and infect people, and cause disease in a way that is completely different from the endemic virus.
Vitoria Colliza, director of research at the French Institute for Health and Medical Research, says that plane travel was the main path through which the virus spread around the world very quickly, but once it begins to spread within society, it is the close communication between people that causes Infection. And the spacing of people should lead to lower rates of infection, and that is exactly what many governments are trying to do by closing public places, all over the world.
Prevention measures
"There is no evidence, as of yet, of the seasonal behavior of (Covid 19)," Collisa says. "The behavioral component may play a role, too." But she warns that it is too early to know whether the measures taken are sufficient to stop the spread of the virus "that may partially reduce the infection because of the limitation in the connections through which the disease can be transmitted."
And if the cases of "Corona" actually decrease during the coming months, this may be for a number of reasons, including the success of preventive measures such as quarantine and closure, and the presence of increased immunity among the population, or the effect of the season may be as suggested by Albert models (Professor of Infectious Diseases Control).
"In countries where there has been a strong closure, this means that not many people will be exposed to the virus, and I will not be surprised that we will see a second wave coming in the fall and winter," Albert warns.
Even if Covid-19 shows some seasonal variation, it is unlikely that it will disappear completely during the summer months, as some see, but the decrease in cases may bring some benefits.
And in that Albert says, "The steps that we take to curb the disease are very economically expensive, but they can help us push this epidemic into the summer," explaining, "If there are some seasonal characteristics, this may mean more time for health systems, "It is the thing you need to prepare."
And in a world scrambling to deal with the rapidly increasing number of cases of injury, time may be what we badly need.
The rapid growth of cases in cold and dry provinces, in China, along with the rate of transmission in tropical locations, such as Singapore, indicate that increased temperatures and humidity, in the spring and summer, will not lead to a decrease in the cases.
If Covid-19 shows some seasonal variation, it is unlikely that it will disappear completely during the summer months, as some see, but a decrease in cases may bring some benefits.