The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, April 24, according to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on the 24th, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar increased by 84 basis points to 7.0803. This week, the central parity of the RMB showed a "three rises and two depreciations" pattern, with a total reduction of 85 basis points.
Screenshot of the official website of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center
The central parity of RMB showed a pattern of “three rises and two depreciations”. Specifically, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose by 61 basis points to 7.0657 on the 20th; it fell 95 basis points to 7.0752 on the 21st; it fell 151 basis points on the 22nd. It was reported to 7.0903; on the 23rd it was raised 16 basis points to 7.0887; on the 24th it was raised 84 basis points to 7.0803.
On the 24th, the offshore RMB rose slightly against the US dollar, fluctuating around 7.09. As of press time, the offshore renminbi was reported at 7.0950 against the US dollar.
The Northeast Securities Report pointed out that from a domestic point of view, the current domestic epidemic situation has basically stabilized, the resumption of business and production is progressing smoothly, and various measures to stimulate the economy have been introduced, so the impact of domestic fundamentals on the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. In the short term, the US dollar index is strong and the RMB has depreciation pressure, but the depreciation space is limited. The Fed has recently introduced various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the US dollar. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations is expected to shrink. Short-term fluctuations in the domestic and foreign financial markets will not affect the long-term upward trend of China's capital markets. It is expected that the RMB will fluctuate around 7 against the US dollar.
Ruida Futures pointed out that the current fundamentals of the RMB have not changed. The domestic resumption of production and production is early, the economic outlook is expected to be relatively good, and the spread between China and the United States is widening. The attractiveness of RMB assets is increasing, which is conducive to the stability of the RMB. In addition, China's financial industry will be fully open to the outside world this year. Under the dual tasks of stabilizing foreign investment and stabilizing foreign trade, there will not be much room for the devaluation of the renminbi. The recent dollar index has no obvious trend, and it is also conducive to the stability of the renminbi.
Yide Futures said that after the dollar shortage problem, compared with other currencies, the RMB performance is relatively resistant to decline, showing strong resilience and certain hedging characteristics. With the positive results of China's epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the resumption of production and production of enterprises has accelerated, and the domestic real economy has gradually recovered and improved. It is expected that the first recovery of the domestic economy in the second quarter will provide strong support for the RMB exchange rate, but the international epidemic continues to spread. The downside risks of the world economy are increasing, and there are many uncertainties. With the external pressure still under pressure, the room for RMB appreciation may be limited.
In addition, due to the most severe epidemic in the United States, the slow economic restart, the impact on the credit level has not been completely improved, the dollar liquidity crisis has not been completely lifted, the market may be repeated, and the high volatility of the US dollar index will also limit the room for RMB appreciation. With the inflow of foreign capital into the domestic market, the overall RMB exchange rate is expected to rise steadily in the second quarter, but space is limited and flexibility is increased. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei app)