Analysis: When old friendship becomes a burden, former allies stand ready to stab the knife in the back

When Justice Minister Sergio Moro on Friday filed his dismissal application, he did so harshly against Bolsonaro. The Minister of Justice accused the president of undermining the independence of the police, the rule of law and the division of power in the country.

The background to the conflict is that Bolsonaro promised Moro free hands within the judiciary but still deposed the country's police chief - against the will of the Minister of Justice. It was the drop that made the beaker run over for Moro.

Sergio Moro was the superstar of the Brazilian judiciary. When SVT was in place in Brazil in 2016 during the court process against then-President Dilma Rousseff, we saw the anti-corruption judge Moro's face everywhere - on posters, banners and t-shirts.

Among a large part of the population - tired of the workers' party PT's rule - Moro was the hero who would get Brazil on the right path. Then the ex-soldier Jair Bolsonaro entered the national stage and surfed on the wave of dissatisfaction all the way into the presidential palace.

When Bolsonaro appointed Moro as Minister of Justice, it gave the government a stamp of quality and increased confidence among mid-voters who were more doubtful of Bolsonaro's political agenda. But even then, critical voices warned that Bolsonaro's diverse coalition of free-church groups, military and established politicians would find it difficult to hold together in a crisis situation. And that crisis is here now.

Brazil is suddenly facing an escalating corona pandemic and open confrontation between the president and governors about how the virus's progress should be handled. At the same time, the political chaos is causing concern in the market and Brazilian currency Real has fallen to record lows.

Moro's star has indeed dropped some since he became minister. Last year, during his time as a judge, Moro was revealed to have improperly communicated with prosecutors in the legal process that put President Lula da Silva in prison. But Moro is still one of Brazil's most famous names and can now become a strong candidate for the presidential post 2022.

In the Brazilian media, it is now widely speculated as to why Bolsonaro has chosen to sacrifice his popular Justice Minister. One theory is that the president wants to strengthen his control over the police and the judiciary to ensure his own survival and put a lid on the investigations that exist regarding the Bolsonaro family's ties to right-wing militia groups that have committed political murders.

And it's not hard to understand why Bolsonaro is worried about his future. Two of Brazil's four most recent presidents have been forced away prematurely through national law. And opposition politicians have already begun preparing court processes for Bolsonaro - including after speaking at a demonstration against social distance and for the military to close the congress.

While Bolsonaro won a clear victory in the 2018 presidential election, his movement is far from a majority in Congress and reigns with shaky alliances. No one is safe in Brazil's notoriously complicated party system, characterized by instability and severe throws. When old friendship becomes a burden, former allies are ready to stab the knife in the back.

Confrontational rhetoric and spectacular play have led Bolsonaro from political anonymity to the presidential post in the world's fifth largest country. But it is a successful strategy that is beginning to reach the end of the road. Bolsonaro's political project is capsizing. And the risk is great that the president will be left alone when the ship goes down.