Wednesday 25 March 2020 is the first day to implement the curfew announced by the Egyptian government as part of measures to combat the spread of Corona virus infection, and on the same day the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population announced the high number of cases whose laboratory results have been transformed from positive to negative for the emerging corona virus. Covid-19 "to 113 cases, bringing the total number of people infected with coronavirus in Egypt as of Wednesday 25 March is 456 cases, of whom 95 have been cured, and 21 deaths (1). Then, on April 20, 2020, the number of injured rose to 3490 and 264 deaths.

However, this number announced by the Egyptian Ministry of Health does not reveal all those infected with the virus, as the Minister of Health herself stated in her press conference that the number of those exposed was 25,000 people, that is, no more than 0.025% of the population of Egypt, then the number of analyzes conducted by her The Egyptian government to 55,000 analyzes in April, amid expectations of an increase in cases of injured people and an increase in the spread of infection in Egypt as a result of the delay in the travel ban and the imposition of curfews, as well as the continued accumulation of people in the streets, public transportation and other human gatherings, which portends an imminent health disaster in Egypt, and an increase Pressure on hospitals and the medical system, so it is The medical system can Egypt in the face of those numbers, in the case of the increasing prevalence of infection Koruna virus and an increase of cases requiring intensive medical care, along with the increasing incidence of death, as happened in Italy, Spain and America?

The prevalence of infection in the world and the real numbers of infected people in Egypt

According to the worldometer global website, the number of new coronavirus people around the world on April 22, 2020 is 2,572,807, with a death rate of 178,551 people around the world, and the following curves express the increasing rate of new coronavirus infection around the world:

The number of deaths is expressed in the following curve, which indicates an increase in the number of deaths around the world as a result of infection of the new Corona virus, although the World Health Organization says that the death rate from the virus ranges between 2-4% of the number of infected:

As for the rate of spread of the virus, it is expressed by the following curve, where the coefficient of global spread of the virus ranges between approximately 0.5 to 2:

But what is the spread factor of the virus? What do we benefit from his knowledge?

Statistics and biologists use an equation called the exponential growth equation, an equation that expects to increase the number of objects around us or to increase the number of people in a specific city or country, by noticing the increase in the number of residents or neighborhoods and then subtracting the original number from it and then dividing it by the original number, to get the rate of increase Which expresses the rate of increase, if we have - for example - a barn with 10 rabbits who increase every day 5 rabbits while rabbits die, then the rate of daily increase will be 0.3 or 30%, this number is used by statisticians in the exponential growth equation that calculates the population of each A specific time period (2), and its formula is:

Where "t" represents time or number of days, while "r" represents the rate of increase, but this equation continues to calculate the population increase without any calculation of environmental, geographical, and cultural considerations in the process of predicting the population increase, and therefore statisticians resort to a more accurate formula, where it is placed in The growth factor, which is the same as the virus prevalence factor, which helps biologists and statisticians anticipate increased infection, and its formula is:

Where the symbol "EP" represents the rate of spread of the virus, and based on this equation, the World Health Organization drew the curve of the spread of the virus in China and outside China, where the following curve represents the experts' expectation of the increasing spread of the virus around the world:

If we apply the same equation to Egypt, by deducing the rate of increasing cases of coronavirus in Egypt through the numbers announced by the Egyptian Ministry of Health between the days of 6 March to 24 March, we will find that the rate of spread of the virus in Egypt is 0.136, which is less than The global average is close to 1.15, but we will depend on the rate announced by the Egyptian government, and by applying the exponential growth equation we will find that the curve of increased infection in Egypt is as follows:

Where the curve says that during the next ten days, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus in Egypt will reach approximately 850,000, which is a horrifying number and is often hindered by many environmental and human obstacles, but it remains a very serious preliminary indication, and an imminent health catastrophe is foreseen in Egypt. So is the system Medical in Egypt is able to address these numbers?

The dilapidated medical system in Egypt

Amid the spread of the "new Corona epidemic" in Egypt, some warnings appeared on social media platforms about the possibility of the collapse of the medical system due to the spread of infection and the increasing pressure on health units, which has already happened in Italy to the extent that doctors have to choose from among the injured who deserves Care There is hope for his recovery and those without treatment will be left to die.

That is why the World Health Organization and governments have called for an attempt to centralize the curve of HIV infection through a strategy of social divergence, to avoid an increase in the number of infections and deaths not tolerated by medical systems in countries.

The horizontal line represents the maximum that the medical system bears in each country, but the height of this line varies from one country to another, while some countries such as Germany and England have an advanced medical system and a large number of hospitals, ICU beds, and respiratory masks, other countries do not have Even the luxury of choosing between the one who deserves health care and the one who does not deserve it, and from those countries Egypt, the medical system in Egypt allows only the minimum, but rather the lowest level of health care, which makes 100 million Egyptians at great health risk.

The following graphics and charts reveal some of the answers to a possible and common question: Can the medical system in Egypt withstand the new Corona epidemic?

Data of the Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics issued in 2019 reveal that the total number of human doctors in Egypt is 120,606 human doctors, the total number of the nursing staff is 219,452 nurses, the number of pharmacists in Egypt is 52,692, the number of ambulances is 2,912 cars, and the number of ambulance centers is 1,464 centers In all governorates of Egypt, the number of hospitals in Egypt is 1,848, in addition to 89 university hospitals affiliated to the Ministry of Higher Education, not health.

The figures here do not refer to specific indicators, but by analyzing the numbers it looks different, the following chart shows several important indicators, as it shows that there is one human doctor for every 805 Egyptian citizens, there is one nurse for every 443 Egyptian citizens, and the most terrifying is that there is one bed for each 736 Egyptians, while there is one hospital for every 52,569 Egyptians.

The previous fees express the health situation in Egypt in general, but since the beginning of March the Egyptian Ministry of Health has allocated a hospital for health isolation in every governorate of Egypt. Are these hospitals equipped with the space and beds needed to receive those suspected of having the Coronavirus?

Medical isolation hospitals in Egypt and the number of hospital beds

The Ministry of Health has allocated a hospital for medical isolation in each governorate of Egypt. The following map shows the distribution of isolation hospitals in all governorates of Egypt:


The following figure shows the number of beds in each of the quarantine hospitals in the governorates of Egypt:

The previous graph reveals the number of beds in health isolation hospitals. For example, we find that the 15th of May Hospital designated for health isolation in Cairo, the capital, contains only 100 beds for accommodation and 20 beds for intensive care, while it does not contain any beds for intensive care for children. Alexandria, the second city in Egypt, we find at Al-Ajmi Hospital for Health Isolation 110 beds for accommodation and 20 beds for intensive care, while the largest health isolation hospital has a number of beds, it is the Zefta Hospital in Gharbia, which contains 195 beds for residence and 4 beds for intensive care, and the highest hospital with beds Intensive care is Beni Suef Hospital Ssa and the number of intensive care beds with 38 beds!

However, the deficit in the number of beds does not exist only in quarantine hospitals, but also includes all of Egypt's hospitals. The following graph shows the number of beds in all hospitals in Egypt, whether it is a government sector or a private sector in all governorates of Egypt:

As for the map of private sector hospitals, we can find in the following chart a distribution between rural and urban in the governorates of Egypt:


As for the number of beds allocated to each medical specialty in each governorate in Egypt, we find its distribution in the following chart:

But if we want to know the distribution of beds for the specialization of fevers and the chest alone, since the most dangerous thing that is attacked by the Corona virus is the respiratory system in the patient and his lungs, the following diagram shows the distribution of beds for the specialization of fevers and chest in all governorates of Egypt:

But even with a shortage of beds, wouldn't the Ministry of Health provide the beds of all hospitals and all specialties to confront a global epidemic like the new Corona? The truth is that the answer is provided by the following chart, which shows the occupancy rate in all beds in all hospitals in Egypt:

The previous drawing shows that the occupancy rate of beds in hospitals in Egypt ranges between 16% and 75%, while the length of stay ranges between two to three days, meaning that if the Ministry of Health tries to use all beds for the victims of the Corona virus, it will cause a health disaster for the rest of the patients who are already On most hospital beds in all governorates of Egypt.

Doctors of Egypt .. What is left of them?

If this is the case of the number of hospitals and beds in Egypt, then how many doctors are there in Egypt, especially since past years have witnessed a state of great flight for Egyptians from all disciplines due to poor physical and health conditions and abuse against doctors in the last period?

The following graph shows the total numbers of doctors, pharmacists and nursing staff, whether male or female, in the Ministry of Health and other public bodies such as universities, prisons, the police, health insurance, and others:

However, hospitals are essentially integrated institutions, not only containing doctors, pharmacists and paramedics, but there are administrative staff, workers and technicians from all specialties, all of whom are vulnerable to infection, especially with the lack of medical and preventive supplies in all hospitals in Egypt.

The following graph shows the total numbers of workers in the health sector in Egypt in all specialties and governorates:

As it becomes clear that the category of female nursing staff and female nursing technicians are the two highest categories in the health sector, so the following chart shows their details:

As the number of workers in the health sector in Egypt in all governorates of Egypt is 412,842, in addition to the total number of human doctors in Egypt, which is approximately 121 thousand, meaning that the number of workers in the health sector in Egypt is approximately half a million individuals, a large percentage of whom are vulnerable to infection in The immediate situation remained a shortage of medical supplies in hospitals, amid a general deficiency in the medical system, respiratory masks, and the number of doctors, and these numbers, maps, and charts raise the alarm about the medical system in Egypt, which may collapse at any moment if the scenario of an increase in people infected with Corona virus occurs, as happened in Italy, Spain, etc. That far away from us.

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Note:

All figures in the report are drawn from the Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics in Egypt, which is a statistical center accredited by the Egyptian government.