Coronavirus, the adversary who disarmed Vladimir Putin

Text by: Anastasia Becchio Follow

Vladimir Putin has said that "the situation is under total control", the number of infections continues to grow. This Tuesday, April 21, 456 deaths were recorded for 52,763 cases of Covid-19. While the epidemic outbreak had initially seemed weaker than in most western European countries, the number of new daily infections has increased sharply since the beginning of the month. Authorities expect the epidemic to peak around mid-May.

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This April 22, 2020 was to be popular voting day in Russia. The citizens were going to be consulted on amendments to the Constitution, voted by the Duma earlier this year, which were, among other things, to allow Vladimir Putin to run for a fifth or even a sixth mandate. But the coronavirus epidemic has come to disrupt his plans. "  He had no choice but to postpone the consultation," said Russian political scientist Tatiana Stanovaya, who heads the cabinet of experts R.Politik. “Organizing a referendum when there was a risk of renewed infections after the vote, it was not possible. Vladimir Putin wanted to get a nice picture, but the coronavirus ruins everything. It was therefore easier to postpone this consultation and wait for more favorable conditions. "

Another moment eagerly awaited by the Russian president paid the price for the epidemic: the great military parade on May 9 , which was to mark the 75th anniversary of the victory over Nazism, in the Great Patriotic War. Several foreign heads of state were expected, including French President Emmanuel Macron.

This epidemic seriously disrupts the plans of the Kremlin notes Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean, director of the Russia center at the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri). "Vladimir Putin hesitated for a long time before deciding to postpone these two dates and he has trouble falling back on his feet to find another legitimacy, another consolidation in the current management of the crisis". And the researcher noted that in this health crisis, the Russian government finds itself deprived of benchmarks: “none of the usual levers of the Kremlin work, whether it be propaganda or force. "

The Russian president has addressed the population several times in recent weeks. On this Easter Sunday for the Orthodox , seated in front of the fireplace of his residence in Novo-Ogarevo, with pastries and Easter decorated eggs on a low table, Vladimir Putin tried to reassure, saying that the country had all resources to deal with the epidemic.

Governors on the move

But in Moscow as in the rest of the country, the Russian president does not appear on the front line in managing the crisis. He delegated the task to the regional governors. In the Russian capital, it was the mayor Serguei Sobianine, who took the decision to impose the general confinement of the population. Since March 30, the twelve million Muscovites have been prohibited from leaving their homes unless they travel to buy food or medicine, to undergo urgent medical care or to walk their dog. Other regions have followed suit, with more or less reluctance on the part of the population.

"It is indeed one of the rare times when crisis management is left to the regions," notes Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean. A way to blame the regions if things go wrong, while ensuring that "the sticks and the carrots remain in the hands of the Kremlin, that is to say the transfer of resources and the taking sanctions against governors who fail to manage the crisis ”. Regional officials can face up to seven years in prison for mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis.

"Vladimir Putin believes that the regions are different from each other, and he is right: it is logical that the decisions taken take into account regional specificities," notes his side Tatiana Stanovaya. “ His job is to make sure that all decisions are made at the right time and to lobby if necessary. But it cannot be said that he delegated powers to the regions. He delegated responsibility ... without powers. "

The political scientist notes that Vladimir Putin " distances himself from this coronavirus crisis, it does not interest him from a political point of view, as can interest him foreign policy, strategic decisions or constitutional reform".

Distrust and worry

On the population side, the coronavirus crisis provokes contrasting reactions. Some, in particular in the big cities, ask for the establishment of a kind of health emergency; others demonstrated to demand the lifting of the containment, like earlier this week in Vladikavkaz, in the Russian Caucasus, one of the poorest regions of the country.

A certain form of distrust and mistrust of the population is emerging vis-à-vis the official figures and the measures taken. Added to this is a lack of confidence in the capabilities of the Russian medical system, which has undergone an optimization process, with reductions in beds, in recent years.

► International Report: e n Russia, the concern of doctors against the coronavirus

Finally, there is great concern, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises hard hit by the unemployed month of April decreed by Vladimir Putin. " Irritations are accumulating and this will have consequences in the future," predicts Tatiana Stanovaya . For the political scientist, the problem is not only related to the coronavirus crisis. “ Vladimir Putin has changed, he has ceased to be a national leader. He has unlearned to show empathy publicly, he no longer speaks the same language as the people, he has distanced himself, he lives in his world with Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, geopolitical issues, and I think that these shortcomings in the regime will have consequences in the future ”.

A shared analysis Tatiana Kastoueva-Jean for whom the Russian president “is missing the opportunity to reconsolidate the confidence of the population in him, to show compassion, empathy. We have so far seen it a little offbeat and not in top form during the management of this crisis. For the director of the Russia center at Ifri, this could have important consequences. "The latest Levada Center polls show trends that should worry the Kremlin. Thus, 50% of those questioned want to see a rotation at the top of the state, new faces, and almost 70% of the population would like to impose age restrictions on the presidential office. "

However, the constitutional amendments that Vladimir Putin wanted to submit to the population on April 22, before the coronavirus epidemic disrupted his plans, should theoretically allow him to remain in power until the age of 84.

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• Russia
• Coronavirus
• Vladimir Poutine

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