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The third horseman hides his face behind the coronavirus. The global health emergency from Covid-19 is having a huge impact on the most vulnerable populations and one of its scariest faces is acute hunger. Experts predict that the pandemic will have apocalyptic consequences. A projection by the World Food Program (WFP) estimates that some 265 million people in low- and middle-income countries will be under serious threat unless action is taken to alleviate hunger exacerbated by the consequences of the pandemic .

The estimate represents a considerable increase compared to the 135 million people in 55 countries (16% of the planetary population) that already suffered from this acute hunger situation in 2019. These are very vulnerable populations that do not have the capacity to cope with the effects -both health and socioeconomic- of a new crisis .

This is stated in the Global Report on Food Crises 2020 (GRFC), which analyzes the situation of food insecurity in the world. The work, in which 16 organizations collaborate -among which is the WFP- and finances the European Union, was presented on Tuesday.

Of particular concern is the situation in countries in Africa and the Middle East, where the virus threatens lives and already precarious livelihoods, imposing isolation that weakens commercial networks vital to the survival of communities. "Confinement measures and the global economic recession will lead to a massive loss of income among poor workers, who are already living on the edge of poverty and hunger," explains the GRFC. In this sense, the report warns, "it is expected that a greater number of people will die due to the economic impact of Covid-19 than due to the virus itself . "

The world hunger map before the pandemic shows a geography in which the majority of affected people are in countries devastated by conflict (77 million), climate change (34 million) or economic crisis (24 million ). Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Afghanistan group a third of the total number of people in extreme hunger , with Venezuela as the fourth most affected country in the world. It is followed by South Sudan, where 61% of its inhabitants are dealing with lack of food.

Of the five countries through which the black horse rider gallops freely, Venezuela is the only one not at war. Despite its huge oil reserves, it is one of the hunger hot spots after the collapse of its economy: 9.3 million Venezuelans (32% of the total population) are food insecure and need humanitarian aid. Of these, 2.3 million suffer from acute hunger.

This apocalyptic mapping is now joined by the coronavirus crisis, which will further weigh down the lives of its inhabitants. While fighting Covid-19, the poorest countries risk being forced "to choose between saving lives or ways of life," the report calls attention. "In the worst case scenario, this means saving people from the coronavirus and then seeing how they starve," experts say. To prevent the tens of millions of people already on the brink of extreme hunger from succumbing to the virus or falling into the abyss of its economic consequences, the authors of the GRFC urge a global mobilization to coordinate operational and strategic policies, ensure nutritional assistance to the most vulnerable groups and strengthen social protection systems.

A VICIOUS CIRCLE

Until the emergence of the pandemic, the first factor that leads populations to the food crisis are conflicts and insecurity. Asia and the Middle East, plagued by the wars in Syria and Yemen, concentrates 40 of the 77 million people who have nothing to put to their mouths in the middle of a conflict. Food insecurity is particularly severe in cross-border areas such as the Lake Chad region or the Central Sahel, with high levels of poverty, illicit trafficking, violence by armed groups, lack of infrastructure, and poor access to basic services .

Another factor is the drought and the effects linked to the climate emergency, which afflict especially countries in the South and the Horn of Africa, in addition to Central America and Pakistan. Population displacements due to adverse circumstances exacerbate the situation of food insecurity and malnutrition. And vice versa: the lack of food also triggers the movements of refugees, in a vicious circle. In mid-2019, around 79 million forced displaced persons were counted - 44 million internally displaced persons and 20 million refugees in other countries . Of these refugees, more than half found shelter in countries where food insecurity is acute.

Precisely people in poverty, including displaced persons and refugees, are the ones who lack the most economic resources to access health systems and often even reside in areas without access to them. People suffering from food shortages are those with worse health conditions, aggravated by malnutrition and chronic or acute deficiency of micronutrients, which weakens the immune system and increases the risk of Covid-19 . And these high levels of food insecurity and lack of access to healthcare combined increase malnutrition rates, especially among children, pregnant and lactating women, and the elderly.

Experts warn of the high risk in the midst of this pandemic that the overcrowding of the reception camps means for refugees and displaced persons , where in addition to overcrowding there is a precarious access to health and sanitary facilities where to wash, coupled with the shortage of drinking water.

The coronavirus can also exacerbate social and political tensions , especially in countries most vulnerable to hunger. "Uncertainty about the future impact of the pandemic combined with movement restrictions, high unemployment, limited access to food and the erosion of already fragile living standards can generate discontent and add fuel to violence and conflict" , concludes the study.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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