In Libya, Turkish planes are weakening Haftar more and more

The Corona epidemic has not affected the ongoing war in Libya, despite international calls to better end hostilities to combat the virus, but the balance of power has changed in favor of the National Accord government since the beginning of the year, after Turkey put a new generation of drones in service.

This is what the French newspaper Le Monde said in an article by Frédéric Poppin, in which he emphasized that the military escalation that took place in recent days near the Libyan capital, Tripoli, perpetuates a coup in the balance of powers at the expense of what is known as the Libyan National Army led by retired Major General Khalifa Hifter.

According to the newspaper, a UN source condemned the continuing clashes that hindered the health mobilization against the Corona epidemic, and said it was a "real time bomb", noting that official figures announce 48 injuries and one death, but the health system is not organized due to the ongoing violence.

The newspaper pointed out that the supporters of Haftar suffer from severe setbacks after they lost control of the two coastal towns of Sabratah and Sarman, less than 70 km west of Tripoli, which means a change in the balance of power after the attack launched by Haftar a year ago with the support of the Emiratis and Russians on the capital, Tripoli, and led About 150,000 people have been displaced, the newspaper said.

The restoration of internationally recognized national reconciliation government forces to these two cities, with military support from Turkey alone, is part of a counter-offensive that is beginning to undermine Haftar's accomplishments, especially after the restoration of the strategic Abu Green area and the threat of al-Wattiya base and the city of Tarhuna, according to Le Monde.

Le Monde quoted many analysts as saying that the current coup d'etat is due to Turkey's increased support for the National Accord government, and the introduction of a new generation of drones with more efficient technology.

"The balance of power has changed radically since the beginning of the year," says Wolfram Lacher, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, because Turkish drones and anti-aircraft defense systems installed by Ankara in Tripoli now prevent flights from reaching Tripoli and Misrata, after If the Emiratis control the sky in the service of Haftar, as the newspaper reports.

The author believes that the intervention of the Turks in favor of the Al-Wefaq government formed a new strategic environment in western Libya, as the government forces placed Haftar's forces in a defensive position, but Jalil al-Hashawi, a Libyan analyst at the Netherlands Klingendiel Institute for International Relations in The Hague, attributes this to the fact that the Turks are the ones who Design and coordinate attack plans.

The writer mentioned that the Turkish intervention came as a result of a security agreement signed in November 2019 between Ankara and the government of reconciliation, in exchange for massive military and financial support, from which Haftar's forces sponsored foreigners such as Russia, the UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, after the failure of the United Nations Security Council in Stop the spiral of foreign interference that publicly violates the ban on all arms shipments to Libya.

Thus, Ankara ended by shaking the military lines around the capital, which contributed to the success of the reconciliation government - which was weakened in the fall by the attacks of the Russian security company Wagner Mercenaries - in easing the siege. He added, "The underestimation of the Turks was a huge mistake."

As attention turns to the Emirates as Haftar's main political and military sponsor, the author asks, will Abu Dhabi respond to the Turkish challenge? He responds that he "expects the Emiratis to intensify their efforts to support Haftar through Egypt," but he does not know how this stage will be.

The writer pointed out that Moscow's position is also subject to many speculations, because the correlation between Russia and Turkey in Libya, which reproduces the relationship between them in Syria, where competition meets cooperation, has now also become part of the Libyan conflict.

Therefore, the writer believes that the confrontation is far from absolute hostility because it is subject to hidden strategic motives that go beyond the Libyan horizon. “Al-Hashawi says that“ Moscow is keen not to burn all bridges with Erdogan. ”Likewise, the Turks seem to be acting in a very calculated manner with their opponents, as if they were avoiding corruption. What cannot be repaired, a Libyan source says, "We have noticed that Turkish drones are not hitting sites controlled by Russian mercenaries on the fronts of Ain Zara or Wadi Rabia in Tripoli."

Thus - the author concludes - it is the development of Russian-Turkish relations that constitutes the battle of Tripoli, in harmony with what is happening on the distant Syrian front, where strikes of one of the other two countries hit between two stages of negotiation.