After the arrest of the princes in Saudi Arabia, who will compete with Bin Salman? Can it be removed from power?

Al-Jazeera Net - Doha

King Salman bin Abdulaziz assumed power in January 2015 in Saudi Arabia, and his son Prince Muhammad was appointed crown prince in June 2017 despite the presence of someone older than him in the ruling family, especially from his uncles, the sons of the kingdom's founder, King Abdulaziz bin Saud, And his cousins ​​who previously held high positions in the state.

The young prince, who had not taken over any government agency before that, his closeness to his father - and his work as his counselor when he was governor of Riyadh and then crown prince - enabled him to cross quickly into the circle of power and influence when his father took over the country.

Bin Salman, 34, has spared no effort to reduce the influence of his uncles or their children who could compete with him in the ruling despite the fact that a number of them have held sensitive and high positions, and the basic system of government stipulates that "the ruling will be in the children of the founding king Abdul Aziz bin Abdul Rahman Al-Faisal The House of Saud and the children of the sons, and the most righteous among them is pledged allegiance to the ruling of the Book of God Almighty and the Sunnah of His Messenger, may God bless him and grant him peace.

The crown prince did not delay much in arranging his papers, expanding his powers, and gathering the threads of state administration with his grip in exchange for reducing the powers of his rivals and removing them. When his father took office, he issued a royal order to take over his son Muhammad as the Ministry of Defense in addition to appointing him as head of the royal court and a special adviser to the king.

Then I followed it up with another royal decree that established the Political and Security Affairs Council headed by Prince Muhammad bin Nayef - then Minister of Interior and Cousin bin Salman - and the Economic and Development Affairs Council headed by Bin Salman.

And with Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Al Saud being exempted from the position of Crown Prince at his request - as the authorities have stated - on April 29, 2015, and Prince Muhammad bin Nayef being chosen as the Crown Prince, a royal decree was issued stating that bin Salman was chosen as the crown prince and appointing him as second deputy The Prime Minister, while still holding the position of Minister of Defense and Chairman of the Council of Economic Affairs and Development.

On June 21, 2017, King Salman issued an order - after Prince Muhammad bin Nayef was dismissed from his post - to elect bin Salman as crown prince and appoint him as deputy prime minister while continuing as defense minister. He also became president of the councils of economic affairs, development and political and security affairs.

In the midst of these changes, Bin Salman enjoyed the dynamism and dynamism of his political, economic and social decisions that observers believed would change the face of the Kingdom and its conservative policy at all levels. However, a number of those decisions and policies attracted sharp criticism, especially with regard to foreign policy such as the Yemen war and the siege of Qatar, and issues Human rights, such as pursuing activists, imprisoning violators, and the crime of assassinating journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the consulate in Istanbul in the beginning of October 2018, in addition to radicalism in taking social decisions that contradict the conservative nature of society, and finally imprisoning a group of influential princes in The royal family allegedly was preparing for a coup, led by his uncle Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and Prince Muhammad bin Nayef.

With every event that resonates regionally and globally, questions arise about the reckless policy of the young prince and her opposition to the "balanced" approach taken by Saudi policies during the era of its former kings. The question of alternative personalities also appears in the event bin Salman gives up or is forced to give up power, and in the following are the most prominent Those characters:

Ahmed bin Abdulaziz,
brother of King Salman, had returned to Riyadh from the British capital, London, suddenly at the end of October 2018, after the Khashoggi killing, which sparked widespread anger against bin Salman's policy, and he had obtained American and British guarantees that he would not be subjected to a guardian. The covenant is according to Middle East Eye.

He is considered one of the prominent members of the ruling family, and the last of the remaining brothers of King Salman, and according to the Washington Post, prominent members of the royal family at the time discussed a possible role for Prince Ahmed in reducing the influence of his nephew, and he would have assumed the position of "temporary crown prince."

And the website "Middle East Eye" reported that Prince Ahmed was trying to conclude a deal with Bin Salman to persuade him to voluntarily relinquish the mandate and military and security posts that he retain his economic role, or he might seek to remove him through the pledge body that might be named for his vacant position.

It was known that Prince Ahmed, 76, was opposed to the policies of his nephew. In 2017, when he was a member of the Allegiance Council, Bin Salman was appointed as the crown prince, and he did not offer him the pledge of allegiance, according to Middle East Eye. Ahmed took the Interior Ministry for a short period in 2012, and prior to that he was Deputy Interior Minister for decades.

Miteb bin Abdullah
is the son of the late King Abdullah, and during his father’s term he assumed the Ministry of National Guard, and he was preparing himself for his succession in power.

In an article for the New York Times, the Saudi writer and opposition, Madawi Al-Rasheed, says that the name of Prince Miteb is not related to oppression, and that it has a special popular base among the tribal groups that joined the National Guard, and could inspire his father's patriarchal reputation and become a pivot symbol for restoring confidence between his relatives.

Muhammad bin Nayef
used to be the crown prince, deputy prime minister and minister of interior until he was exempted from what was called a “white coup” by bin Salman in 2017. He is considered the first security man in the country since he was appointed since 1999 as assistant to the interior minister for security affairs, and in November In November 2012, he was appointed Minister of the Interior, and was named General of the War on Terrorism, where he supervised plans to eliminate violence in the Kingdom, which witnessed a wave of bombings in various regions.

In her article, Al-Rasheed says he has been loved by Western governments for his campaign against al-Qaeda since 2003, and he was awarded the George Tenet Medal by the CIA.

Khalid bin Salman
is the younger brother of the Crown Prince, and the French newspaper Le Figaro reported that the Allegiance Commission discussed his appointment as the Crown Prince, provided that a gradual handover of powers takes place from Muhammad to Khalid, and ends with the latter's rise to the place of his older brother, and thus the ruling remains for Salman's sons.

Khaled, 30, was ambassador to the United States, but he suddenly left Washington on October 11, after Khashoggi was killed. The New York Times said at the time that the prince would not return to the United States as ambassador, and then he was appointed deputy defense minister.

Khalid bin Sultan
, the 69-year-old Prince, assumed the position of Deputy Minister of Defense between 2011 and 2013, and it was expected that the Minister of Defense would become the same as his father, Prince Sultan, but that did not happen. Khaled was the commander of the Arab forces in Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

Middle East Eye reported that Khalid was also one of the most prominent princes who welcomed Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz and welcomed him upon his return from abroad.

Muqrin bin Abdulaziz
is one of the sons of the founding king, and he was the Emir of Hail region (north of the Kingdom) and then the Prince of Medina, to be appointed as the head of General Intelligence from 2005 until 2012, and in 2013 he was appointed second deputy prime minister, and in 2015 he was appointed as crown prince during the reign of the king Salman for a few months, but he was relieved of his post in April 2015 "at his request" according to the royal order issued at the time by King Salman.

The Middle East Eye website said that Muqrin, 73, is one of the great princes who celebrated the return of Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz.

Khalid bin Bandar
, the 67-year-old Prince, assumed the presidency of General Intelligence during the reign of King Salman between April 2015 and January 2016.

Middle East Eye reported that Khalid was one of the most prominent princes who welcomed Prince Ahmed bin Abdul Aziz and welcomed him upon his return from abroad, and that he is one of the personalities able to take over in place of Bin Salman.

However, many factors govern the change in the pyramid of governance in Saudi Arabia internally and externally. As for internally, it was known about the members of the ruling family, especially the “allegiance body”, to hand over to the king and his entourage in all their decisions and policies at the local and global levels, in order to preserve the gains of the whole family and the stability of the rule for them. And those who can be counted upon to play the role of the alternative to Ibn Salman do not have influence in the organs of power, and their maximum - perhaps - appreciation of some of them in the family or recognition of other efforts in serving the country.

A Western diplomat quoted by the Washington Post, in a report published on October 30, 2018, as saying that replacing Bin Salman with another emir is very unlikely, adding that there is really no alternative, and if there were alternatives, the lights would be shed. On them a long time ago, and people would gather around them.

Likewise, Bin Salman does not seem to be in the process of surrendering or even sharing power with one of his cousins, and he has been displacing anyone who could represent him as a threat or an obstacle on the way to Al Yamamah Palace (the headquarters of the royal government) in addition to gathering all the state’s threads Security, political and economic in his hand.

In the same report, the newspaper also quoted the researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center as saying that the royal family may have been forced to submit, or at least completely surrendered, and could no longer circumvent a strong personality, even if it was present. It is too late, as many of their institutional powers have been disintegrated and weakened as well.

Externally, the international community used to deal with those who rule in Saudi Arabia as long as the regime there preserved the interests of western countries and their home. The most prominent of these interests is ensuring the flow of energy supplies and financial liquidity as a result of investments and billion contracts in arms deals, and fighting the so-called "terrorism".

The assassination of the journalist represented a real test of Western countries ’dealings with Bin Salman, after that incident threatened the powers of the young prince and brought criticism from all sides, but the Western reaction on its official level did not go beyond denunciation of the crime and demanding that the perpetrators be brought to a fair trial despite many indications. The possibility of his involvement - according to Western reports - and the suspension of some investment contracts that were soon resumed even before Saudi courts issued indictments to those close to Bin Salman.