In recent years, NATO ’s military exercises in Europe have had a major impact on the European security environment, and at the same time reflected many of the difficulties it faces—
NATO is in a "tightrope walk" dilemma
Recently, the impact and pressure caused by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the military departments of many NATO countries originally planned to continue from the end of February to the end of June. The "European Defender-2020" military exercise presses the "pause button". This exercise is one of the largest joint military exercises organized by NATO after the Cold War. The numerous exercises held by NATO in recent years have had a major impact on the security environment in Europe, and at the same time reflect the many difficulties it faces.
Balance between deterrence and dialogue
After the Ukrainian crisis, NATO countries believed that Russia should bear important responsibility for the crisis. As the crisis spread to a wider region of Eastern Europe, and panic among new NATO members such as the Baltic States, NATO ’s accusations against Russia have escalated repeatedly.
With the rich experience accumulated during the Cold War, NATO has no shortage of means to deter powerful Eastern rivals, and exercises are an important part of it. In recent years, NATO has held dozens of large-scale military exercises, and the largest post-Cold War military exercise was held near Norway at the end of 2018. However, the risk of the exercise is very high, especially in the large-scale, close-by live fire drills on both sides. In the vicinity of the Baltic Sea in the northeastern European region where the exercise area is relatively small, including the area surrounding Kaliningrad, which is sensitive to its geostrategic position, Russia closely monitors each exercise. Under such circumstances, how to use exercises to deter opponents while maintaining communication and dialogue with them is a balance that NATO must balance.
In fact, during the summits in Wales, Warsaw and Brussels, NATO emphasized the importance of maintaining communication and dialogue with Russia, the so-called "double D" policy of "deterrence and dialogue." Although the normalized exercises strengthened the presence of NATO troops in the Russian border area, NATO did not use permanent garrisons to further stimulate Russia, but the main allies took the lead to take turns in the defense. In addition, shortly after the Warsaw Summit in 2016, the ambassador-level meeting between NATO and the Russian Council was held as scheduled, and the two sides launched timely communication and exchanges.
The balance between toughness and gentleness
There are "hard" factions represented by the United States and Poland within the NATO, and "moderate" factions represented by Germany and France. How to maintain the balance between the two factions has become a major problem facing NATO.
After the end of the Cold War, due to differences in interests and differences in strategic thinking, the United States and Germany and France moved further away in their policies toward Russia. In the process of NATO's continuous eastward expansion, countries such as Germany and France have been trying to prevent the alliance from expanding to Ukraine and Georgia. After the Ukrainian crisis broke out, although relations between Russia and Europe and the United States in the field of security defense were irreversibly affected, Germany and France have been working hard to control the extent of their damage. The two countries also actively participate in the Minsk process and mediate Russia-Ukraine relations. After NATO concluded a 10-day large-scale military exercise in Poland in 2016, then-German Foreign Minister Steinmeier criticized NATO for holding military exercises in Eastern Europe and similar actions, which may lead to the deterioration of NATO-Russia relations.
But at the same time, an objective reality that must be acknowledged is that the Eastern European flank allies, especially Poland and the Baltic States, are different from Western European countries in terms of their feelings of "threat" to Russia. The strong strategic mobility and penetration capabilities of the Russian army and the Russian military's ability to "take" Warsaw and other places in the short-term confrontation with NATO have indeed caused trouble for the Eastern European countries. Poland hopes that NATO allies will use the exercise in Eastern Europe as an opportunity to further upgrade to permanent stationing. This obviously violated the spirit of the 1997 "Basic Document on Mutual Relations, Cooperation, and Security between NATO and Russia," which was strongly opposed by Germany and France. Poland promoted NATO's "Clear Sky-2018" and other exercises held in western Ukraine, neither Germany nor France participated.
Balance between traditional and non-traditional security threats
Since the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine, the security environment in Europe has become more complex and diverse. Under the influence of the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, especially the Syrian war, a large number of refugees flocked to Europe, terrorism also took advantage of it, and the non-traditional security threats facing European countries rose sharply.
For NATO member countries on the verge of the Mediterranean Sea, such as Greece, Italy, and France, compared with the military pressure from Russia in Eastern Europe, the pressure of non-traditional security threats is more urgent and real. Therefore, although NATO launched security cooperation mechanisms such as the "Mediterranean Dialogue" as early as the end of the Cold War, southern European countries are still uneasy and dissatisfied with NATO ’s investment of large amounts of security and defense resources in Eastern Europe in recent years. Was "kidnapped". At the same time, Italy and other countries have close energy cooperation with Russia.
Under such circumstances, while participating in NATO exercises in Eastern Europe, member states such as Italy and Spain also requested the alliance to pay attention to their security concerns. For example, the "Trident Junction" exercise held in November 2015 conceived of various traditional or non-traditional challenges that NATO may face at the strategic, operational and tactical levels. It requires NATO to effectively protect and defend the weak and small countries in the exercise concept. Frustrated its attempts to become a powerful neighbor. In terms of specific tasks, the exercise set up multiple contents such as high-intensity joint operations, missile defense, cyber warfare, civilian protection, and humanitarian relief. After 2016, with the promotion of Italy and other Southern European countries, NATO cooperated with the European Union to implement the "Sea Guard" operation. The action essentially normalized the items in the related exercises to deal with non-traditional security threats to fully meet the security needs of the allies along the Mediterranean coast.
Balance between neutrality and alliance
While NATO and Russia are facing military confrontation, Sweden and Finland, the two Nordic neutral states, are not spectators. Especially in the case of increased regional tensions, Sweden has participated in NATO exercises and even led some of them through the assessment of the security environment facing the country after the Cold War, especially since the new century, as well as the building and level of its own armed forces. Increased cooperation with the Western Military Alliance.
Sweden is mainly involved in NATO's "Cold Response" series of exercises, which simulates the competition with powerful opponents in high latitudes. As the topic of security in the Arctic has heated up in recent years, the direction of the exercise has become more obvious under the traction of the tension between NATO and Russia. For a long time, technical cooperation between Sweden and NATO in the defense field has always existed, and the "cold reaction" exercise has further strengthened this point. At the same time, in recent years, the voices of people in Sweden and other countries wishing to change their neutrality have reached a record high, which has put a lot of pressure on official policies. However, as far as the security environment in Europe is concerned, the "Nordic balance" in the new situation is crucial. NATO should continue to maintain its prudent attitude towards neutral nations and avoid pushing them to make erroneous actions that are harmful to Europe ’s overall and long-term security.
All in all, NATO ’s frequent military exercises in recent years, like the same prism, reflect the many contradictions facing NATO. These contradictions involve both within NATO, as well as NATO and its opponents, as well as NATO's partners. The existence of these contradictions stems from the imbalance of power, the diversification of ideas, and the highly diversified interests and policy demands. It is not easy to maintain many of the above balances. However, the excessive expansion of NATO after the Cold War is a catalyst for these challenges, and perhaps NATO should respond to its in-depth reflection.
(The author of Kong Gang is an associate professor of National University of Defense Technology)