World economic growth rate-3% Worst since the Great Depression 5:10 on April 15th
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The IMF = International Monetary Fund announced that the economic growth rate for the entire world this year will drop significantly to -3% due to the spread of the new coronavirus, and after the Great Depression that began in 1929. I showed the recognition that it would be the worst.
On the 14th, the IMF announced the latest outlook for the global economic growth rate. For the year 2020, the forecast of 3.3%, which was shown three months ago, dropped by 6.3 points to minus 3%. I'm feeling down.
This is well below the minus 0.1% in 2009, which was affected by the Lehman shock called the unprecedented crisis.
Looking at the breakdown, the US is 5.9%, the first level in 74 years since 1946, and the 1.2% in China, which is the lowest growth in 44 years since 1976.
And in Japan, it is the lowest level for the first time in 11 years since 2009, at -5.2%.
In Europe, Italy is expected to fall by 9.1%, Germany by -7% and the UK by -6.5%.
"The magnitude and speed of the economic collapse have never been experienced before. The recession since the Great Depression," said IMF Director Gita Gopinato, director of the IMF, who held a press conference. He showed that he would be the worst after the Great Depression since 1929.
Meanwhile, the IMF forecasts that the growth rate for next year and 2021 will recover to 5.8%.
However, if the global pandemic of the new coronavirus cannot be subsided by the latter half of the year, negative growth may continue.
Growth rate of each country
What the IMF has announced-Estimates of the economic growth rate of each country in 2020.
《North America / Latin America》
▽ America minus 5.9%
▽ Canada minus 6.2%
▽ Brazil minus 5.3%
▽ Mexico Minus 6.6%
"Europe"
▽ Germany -7%
▽ France minus 7.2%
▽ Italy minus 9.1%
▽ Spain -8%
▽ United Kingdom minus 6.5%
▽ Russia minus 5.5%
"Asia"
▽ Japan minus 5.2%
▽ China + 1.2%
▽ India plus 1.9%
▽ ASEAN5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) minus 0.6%
"Middle East"
▽ Saudi Arabia minus 2.3%
"Africa"
▽ Nigeria Minus 3.4%
▽ South Africa minus 5.8%
Comparison with Lehman shock
Looking at the IMF's forecast of economic growth rates, it became clear that the current situation brought about by the new coronavirus is more serious than the Lehman shock once every 100 years. I will.
The growth rate in 2009, which was greatly affected by the Lehman shock, was minus 0.1%, but is expected to be minus 3% in 2020.
The Lehman shock was an economic crisis in which the collapse of the financial system spread to the real economy such as employment and consumption, but this time in the United States a large amount of unemployment than in those days with economic activities suddenly stopped to stop the infection of viruses. Is out.
In 2009, developed countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan all showed negative growth, while among the emerging countries called BRICS, China had a high growth rate of 9.4% and India had a high growth rate of 8.5%. As a result, it can be said that the negative growth rate of the world as a whole remained at 0.1%.
However, China's outlook for 2020 is 1.2%, the lowest level for the first time in 44 years, and India is 1.9%, the lowest level for the first time in 29 years. It is a feature of
On the other hand, when comparing the pace of economic recovery that deteriorated, in 2010, which was a good year in 2009, was 5.4%.
This time, although it will fall to minus 3% this year, it is expected to recover to plus 5.8% next year by 2021.
However, this prediction is also extremely uncertain, and the future and future of the global economy will depend on when and to what extent the spread of the virus can be contained.