Sub-Saharan Africa to enter recession in 2020, says World Bank

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The coronavirus pandemic has a "considerable" impact on growth in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to experience its first recession in more than a quarter of a century, the institution warned on Thursday.

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The coronavirus pandemic has a considerable impact on growth in sub- Saharan Africa which, according to forecasts, should drop sharply from + 2.4% in 2019 to a range between -2.1 and -5.1% in 2020 , the first recession in the region in more than twenty-five years, "according to a statement from the World Bank.

Hafez Ghanem, vice-president of the institution for Africa believes that " the Covid-19 pandemic is testing the limits of societies and economies around the world and African countries will probably be particularly struck ".

South Africa, Angola and Nigeria particularly affected

The region's three main economies - South Africa, Angola and Nigeria - will be " the most affected by this crisis ", with predictable contractions in their gross domestic product (GDP) of 6 to 7%, underlines the World Bank. South Africa, the continent's leading industrial power, will suffer because it has already been in recession since the beginning of the year, detailed Mr. Zeufack, chief economist of the institution for Africa during a press point in Washington.

Angola, an oil producer, in crisis since the fall in prices in 2014, "was already experiencing difficulties in keeping investments at a high level ", noted the economist. As for Nigeria, the leading producer of sub-Saharan black gold, " the recovery was still very timid, " he added.

A food insecurity crisis in sight?

The pandemic has " also the potential to trigger a food insecurity crisis in Africa, with agricultural production which could contract between 2.6%, according to the most optimistic scenario, and 7%, if there are obstructions in the marketing of food, according to the World Bank.

She recommended that African governments " save lives ... by focusing on health systems " while adopting " swift measures to minimize disruptions in the food supply chain ".

She assured " mobilize all possible resources to help " the region and appealed again to creditors to freeze the repayment of debts so that these countries can free up money to fight the pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has launched a similar appeal.

Nigerian president calls for ' Marshall plan '

A hundred organizations and NGOs, including Oxfam and Save the children, believe that this effort is insufficient. According to the African Union, " nearly 20 million jobs, both in the formal and informal sectors, are threatened with destruction on the continent if the situation persists ".

Many African countries have already reported budgetary problems or requested international assistance. Nigerian President Mahamadou Issoufou has therefore called for a "Marshall Plan" for Africa. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asked the G20 in March to alleviate the debt of the most vulnerable economies and to prepare a $ 150 billion emergency financial assistance plan.

France for its part announced, Wednesday, April 8, the allocation of 1.26 billion euros - including 150 million in the form of grants and one billion in the form of loans - to help Africa cope with the coronavirus epidemic. The European Union, for its part, has guaranteed the granting of " more than 20 billion euros " to the most vulnerable countries in Africa and in the rest of the world.

Africa, the poorest continent in the world, has so far officially registered only 577 deaths from the coronavirus, compared to nearly 90,000 worldwide.

(With AFP)

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