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09 April 2020 The pandemic will bring about the first recession in 25 years for the economy of sub-Saharan Africa, according to the six-monthly report 'Africa's Pulse' published by the World Bank and in whose forecasts there is talk of a reduction in the regional economy in a gap between 2.1 and 5.1 per cent by the end of the year.

The virus will continue to have a negative impact on the main trading partners of African countries and will determine the drop in the prices of raw materials. Measures designed for public health will also stop the growth of a continent that in recent years has counted some of the world's fastest growing economies. According to a report by the African Union, nearly 20 million jobs are at risk on the continent.

South Africa, one of the largest economies on the continent, was the worst hit and experiences the second week of a 21-day blockade.

The World Bank says that sub-Saharan Africa may need a $ 100 billion economic stimulus for recovery. The economies most affected by the fallout from the ongoing pandemic will be those that depend on the export of oil and minerals such as Nigeria, Angola and South Africa. The package of measures should include a temporary debt reduction of $ 44 billion, added in the report that echoes the words of African leaders, including Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last October. Interviewed by the Financial Times Abiy said that "African economies are fixing an abyss", calling on the G20 to provide support, particularly to health systems because "millions of lives are at risk".

In addition to debt relief, the World Bank recommends the strengthening of political health systems to sub-Saharan African countries to support those without access to any form of insurance. The 'Africa's Pulse' report also highlights the specter of "a serious food security crisis", with falling agricultural production and imports.

WHO: 5 beds in Africa for every million people
Africa is facing a terrible shortage of ICU beds and ventilators. The WHO underlines this by stressing that there are a total of 5,000 beds in intensive care units in the 43 countries of the continent: "This is about 5 beds for every million people compared to 4,000 places for a million people in Europe ", explains a note from the WHO. "There is a serious shortage of therapeutic facilities for critical cases of COVID-19," he adds. To date, the continent has recorded over 11,500 cases and 570 deaths.

Somalia confirms the first death
Somalia has announced its first death from Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by coronavirus. The victim was a 58-year-old man, according to Health Minister Fawziya Abikar Nur cited by BBC Africa. The man had not moved from the country and was being treated at the Martini hospital in the capital Mogadishu, according to government spokesman Ismail Mukhtar Orongo. The Ministry of Health has also announced that two health workers are among the four new coronavirus cases in the country, which to date records 12 people with Covid-19.

Pandemic effects on Mena area, tourism collapse affects Morocco
A sharp slowdown in the economic growth of Egypt and Morocco, the two most dynamic countries in North Africa, and the drop in the price of oil that affects the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. The coronavirus pandemic is also having very serious effects on the MENA area (Middle East and North Africa), as explained by a study by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a global association of banking institutions and financial institutions. The study, cited by the in-depth website ecomnewsmed.com, had forecast a general GDP growth in the area of ​​1.8% in 2020 but has now reversed expectations, forecasting a 0.3% drop in the Pile and a strong increase unemployment. Underlying the drop in oil prices, but also in the global demand for raw materials and agricultural products, together with the collapse of tourism.

For Egypt, GDP growth is expected to halve, which was expected to be 5.4% and which should now be 2.7% in 2020. Two main causes: the collapse of tourism, which weighs on the 8% on the Egyptian GDP, but also the decrease in the transit of large freight ships in the Suez Canal, in addition to the decrease in the remittances of the many Egyptians working abroad.

The other dynamic North African economy, that of Morocco, is also expected to experience a sharp drop in growth which was expected to be around 3.2%, while now only + 1.1% of GDP is expected. The kingdom will suffer from the drop in tourism and the services sector, highly developed in the country that had become the first African tourist destination in recent years: tourism in fact accounts for 8% of the Moroccan economy and affects all services such as air transport and hotels, crafts and gastronomy. A very strong drop is expected for Tunisia, which expected its best growth since 2011, to 2.5%, but now according to IIF estimates, GDP will rise only by 0.5%, aggravating the poverty of a country that in 2019 had reached the record of tourist incoming. The collapse in the oil price will instead give a strong blow to the economy of Algeria, which expected growth of 1.6% of GDP in 2020 but sees the forecast reversed now, with -1.5%. Oil, recalls IIF, accounts for 95% of Algerian exports.

The economy of the Persian Gulf countries, which are also dependent on oil, also have very heavy drops, with the financial markets of Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait having lost a third of their value since the beginning of March. The Iff study points out that in Saudi Arabia the financial market lost 18% in March, with the oil giant Aramco leaving 12% of its equity value on the market. Saudi Arabs, UAE, Qatar and Oman have launched $ 85 billion in economic support measures, but Moody's, for example, estimated that the $ 27 billion Abu Dhabi package will only manage to limit the damage to Emirati banks, which will also be affected in their assets such as the real estate sector.