WTO predicts global trade will fall by more than 30% as new corona infections spread 8:49 on April 9
Following the stagnation of economic activity around the world due to the spread of the new coronavirus, the World Trade Organization could reduce the volume of trade in birds by more than 30% worldwide, It has revealed predictions that Asian exports will be severely hit.
On Wednesday, the WTO announced its forecast of global trade in goods.
According to the report, if the effects of the spread of the new coronavirus are prolonged, it will drop by 31.9% compared to last year, and even in an optimistic scenario where trade volume will recover in the latter half, it will decrease by 12.9%.
The WTO believes that the drop in trade volume is likely to be greater than immediately after the 2008 Lehman Shock.
Looking at exports, the impact on North America and Asia including Japan is particularly large, with North America decreasing by up to 40.9% and Asia by up to 36.2%.
Azebedo said, "These numbers are compelling to take unprecedented steps to protect the lives of people, and they want to turn away from these figures, but they cannot be avoided."
The WTO expects trade volume to recover by more than 20% next year and 2021 at this time, but the outlook is uncertain due to the spread of infection and the response of each country.
German growth rate
In Europe, where economic activity continues to stagnate due to the spread of the new coronavirus, the largest economy, Germany, is expected to grow at a record 9.8% in April to June, the worst case for the future. It is getting stronger.
In Europe, where the spread of the virus is severe, measures such as restrictions on going out have been taken, and many stores, including restaurants, have stopped operating, and automobile factories and other facilities have been shut down.
In Germany, the main economic research institute announced the results of a joint analysis of the economic impact of this situation on the 8th.
According to that forecast, the GDP growth rate in Germany is expected to be minus 1.9% from January to March, and to fall to minus 9.8% from April to June.
The fall of 9.8% in the quarter was more than double that of January-March 2009, shortly after the Lehman shock, and is the largest since 1970, when statistics began to be collected.
In addition, the Central Bank of France also reported that GDP growth from January to March was about minus 6%, due to a sharp reduction in economic activity due to restrictions on going out starting on the 17th of March, 1945. Has announced its forecast that it will be the largest drop since the year.
Going out restricts annual GDP by about 1.5% every two weeks.
In this regard, French Minister of Economics Lemaire states that "this economic crisis can only be compared with the Great Depression of 1929 in terms of its severity and length", further increasing concerns about the future of the European economy. You.