A report published by the American Stratfor website warned that the United States strategy in Iraq might retaliate against it, and the report's author, Emily Hawthorne, said that against the backdrop of the Corona pandemic crisis, Washington, by putting pressure on the pro-Iranian Iraqi factions and Tehran's economic ties, risks damaging its remaining relations with the Iraqi government and pushing Iraq To chaos.
The writer said that choosing to escalate the pressure on Iran while Iraq grapples with severe economic and political risks, could backfire on the United States.
She said that these adverse results are to make Iraq not only a less enthusiastic partner in the American war to contain Iranian influence, but also make it, a less compliance ally in the global battle against terrorism, to which Iraq remains the center.
The report indicated that the Pentagon documents leaked late last month revealed an internal debate in the US military about whether to confront Iraqi-backed Iraqi militias, which recently intensified their attacks on American targets in the country. Then, on March 26, the United States granted Iraq a partial exemption from the sanctions imposed on Iran so that Baghdad would continue to buy Iranian natural gas exports.
| The US embassy in Baghdad has been the target of several missile attacks in recent months (Reuters) |
Changing American priorities
The report's author stated that the United States sees the containment of Iraqi militias, which have close ties to Tehran, such as the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, as a strategy to combat rival Iranian influence in the region. On the other hand, frustrating the influence of the Hezbollah Brigades or any other paramilitary organization in Iraq is an exceptional challenge.
Although the strength of the popular support enjoyed by these militias varies across the country, it is deeply rooted in Iraqi politics and society, and has become a staple of security forces and government in Baghdad over the years. This means that the government bears a political cost every time the United States attacks a militia.
Despite American pressure, the Iraqi government is still unable to control the actions of the Iranian-backed militias.
In addition, attempts to control powerful militias in Iraq could frustrate the ability of Adnan al-Zarfi - the prime minister-designate who has relative support from Washington - to form a government, by fueling pro-Iranian parties to cause more controversy against his official inauguration.
Thus, it is not surprising that the Iraqi government has increased the issuance of defensive statements in response to Washington's direct bombardment of militias and their continued threat of sanctions. Meanwhile, Washington is relocating its military forces in the country with the aim of reducing their long-term deployment, which has sparked mixed reactions in the Iraqi government.
| Al-Zrafi won American approval and was rejected by Iraqi factions (Reuters) |
The writer said that the constant threat of US sanctions threatens to further destabilize the fragile Iraqi economy, which is facing its deep conflicts due to Coruna and declining oil prices.
Over many years, the United States has been pressuring Iraq to give up Iranian energy supplies. But Washington increased this pressure recently by shortening the period of exemption from the latest sanctions to only 30 days before it began to impose sanctions on Iraq's imports of Iranian natural gas.
It is likely that the goal will be to compel Iraq to replace all of its imports from Iran over the next three years, especially given that Iraq’s consumption of Iranian gas imports has actually increased from 24% to 31% between 2018 and 2019.
Against the backdrop of the spread of the Corona epidemic, the growing restrictions imposed by Washington to rid Iraq of Iranian influence only contribute to further dumping the country's economy and government in chaos. However, reducing this consumption significantly will require huge international investment, in addition to increasing Iraq's acquisition of natural gas to improve the economy and benefit from its domestic production.
| Iraqi protests diminished due to Corona (Al-Jazeera-Archive) |
The author stated that although Corona dealt a severe blow to the Iraqi economy, concerns about containing the disease outbreak in the country were giving Baghdad a truce from the recent wave of anti-government protests.
This is explained by the fact that more people remain in their homes for fear of infection or spreading infection, as many fewer Iraqis took to the streets in recent weeks to express their complaints from Baghdad.
But after the immediate health crisis begins to fade, and with the acute shortage of water and electricity in Iraq appear again during the summer, the protests are likely to return again.
If the United States intensifies its bombing campaign against Hezbollah Brigades or other Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, then it may risk further protests in Iraq by fueling the anger of Iraqis who are tired of falling between the exchange of fire between the United States and Iran's proxy arms.