Labor Organization estimates .. pessimistic scenarios for the future of employment in the world, what about the Arabs?

Abdul Hafiz Al-Sawy

In mid-March 2020, the ILO estimates that there are two scenarios for the increase in the number of the unemployed due to the Corona pandemic crisis: a optimistic scenario that estimates the increase in the expected number of unemployed at about five million individuals, while the pessimistic view estimates that the number of those affected by the crisis and who will join the ranks of the unemployed reach About 25 million people.

The organization based its initial estimates on the number of unemployed in the past month on the estimates of the global financial crisis in 2008, which then left about 22 million unemployed.

But the scenarios are different between the two crises. The global financial crisis of 2008 was defined, and global efforts to get out of them were sufficient.

But the Corona 2020 crisis - in light of its open scenarios - caused the International Labor Organization to say - in its report issued today, Tuesday, 7 April - that it depends on the future developments to control the Corona virus, as well as the economic policies used to face the negative repercussions of the crisis.

Therefore, the organization believes that there is a great danger threatening the countries of the world in terms of the increase in the number of unemployed, exceeding the preliminary estimates, and exceeding the barrier of 25 million individuals by the end of 2020.

According to the ILO report, the second half of 2020 is expected to witness a loss of 6.7% of working hours worldwide, which is equivalent to 195 million full-time jobs.

As far as our Arab region is concerned, the organization’s report holds that its share of these expectations is the loss of 8.1% of working hours, and the equivalent of five million full-time jobs, which is three times the estimate announced by ESCWA in mid-March, where It expected the number of the unemployed in the Arab region to increase by the end of 2020 by about 1.7 million individuals.

The Asia Pacific region was the hardest hit, according to WHO estimates - in terms of reduced working hours due to the Corona crisis - by 7.2%, or the equivalent of 125 million full-time workers. Naturally, this region will be greatly affected, because of the population density it forms on the global map, where it is estimated that the population of this region represents about 56% of the world's population.

The ILO report does not exclude certain sectors from the negative effects related to reducing working hours. The risk includes the sectors of residence and food services, manufacturing industries, retail trade, business activities and administrative activities.

Losing the global economy - for this proportion of working hours - would cast a negative shadow on the economic growth rates that may outweigh the rates of its decline than expected by the Bank and the International Fund.

Confrontation methods
The estimates of the modern labor organization impose new consequences on the governments of the world, and the consequences will be greater for the governments of that region, as they do not have social welfare systems that enable them to face the negative repercussions of the crisis, as well as their dilapidated economic structures.

The ILO report puts forward four pillars on which to build policies to tackle the Corona crisis in the current stage:

The first pillar: working to stimulate the economy to maintain and work to increase employment opportunities.

The second pillar: supporting companies and maintaining entry.

The third pillar: protecting workers in the workplace.

The fourth pillar: relying on community dialogue to find solutions.

It is an agenda that all governments in both developing and developed countries have resorted to facing the negative effects of the Corona crisis.

The point of each country differed in supporting the sectors it deemed severely affected, as did the value of the financing packages that the governments paid their economies, and America had the largest stimulus package by about 2.2 trillion dollars.

But we have to be aware that the time frame for confronting Corona will overburden governments, in terms of offering more stimulus packages, especially developing countries suffering from a debt crisis and a financing crisis at the same time.

It is not excluded - in the event that the Corona crisis continues beyond 2020 - that many countries declare bankruptcy, their inability to fulfill their external obligations, as well as their inability to support their internal economies, and work to stimulate them by providing government funding.

The voice of the workers was softened
An important note in the Corona crisis is the softening of the voice of workers in many countries of the world, as we have seen on many occasions, such as the Seattle Conference 1999, or the holding of the G20 summits, or the G8 industrial meetings.

We have not seen objections by workers' organizations regarding their conditions in light of this crisis, and many of them have been subjected to displacement and the loss of their jobs, as happened in European countries and America.

The reason behind this may be their social protection presence, as well as their inclusion in stimulus packages, as expressed by the case of America, for example, by protecting the family by providing $ 3,000 to each affected family for a one-time payment.

As for the developing countries, especially those that suffer from the expansion of the number of workers in the informal sector - as recognized by the report of the Labor Organization issued today, and that they are among the largest groups that will be affected by the reduction of working hours by 6.7% globally in the second half of 2020 - it is not expected that This segment has the appropriate social protection.

Therefore, the report calls for working to provide cash and food assistance to the informal workers in the coming period, especially in developing countries.

Are all the ILO hopes for? How is this achieved in countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and many developing and poor countries? How can this also be achieved in a country like Egypt and the rest of the non-oil Arab states?

The fourth pillar presented by the ILO report, on relying on societal dialogue to find solutions, may be difficult to achieve in countries that do not have democratic systems, and business organizations have strong adherence to power, and do not allow civil society participation in decision-making.

Therefore, as we indicated, we found a faint voice for trade unions, especially in developing countries, if not non-existent. The reactions of employers from the private sector differed in the matter of protecting workers and preserving their incomes, while the basis for such decisions is to take place within the framework of what is known as the tripartite relationship (government, workers, employers).

Apparently, in the labor movements in the shadow of this crisis, he no longer heard Karl Marx's call, "Workers of the world, unite." Is it because the crisis is greater than the circle of conflict and dialogue between workers and employers, as it comes out of everyone's will and affects the health and lives of workers and employers, the poor and the rich?