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07 April 2020 The crown virus infection curve has started to drop: 47 days after the 'patient one' in Codogno and 17,127 deaths, Italy seems to see a glimmer of light and is heading towards 'Phase 2' in two steps, with the utmost caution but also with a little optimism after dark weeks.

The day after Easter Monday, if the data are confirmed, there may already be some minimal reopening of production activities while to resume moving and leaving the house, despite a thousand precautions "because the virus is not defeated", we will have to wait at least the beginning of May.

"Finally - underlines the director of infectious diseases of the ISS, Giovanni Rezza, commenting on the data - it seems that a decrease in new cases is starting to appear: after a plateau phase, there seems to be a descent, the curve tends to bend downwards. But let's wait tomorrow or the day after tomorrow before heaving a sigh of relief. " To support the words there are, in fact, the numbers. Intensive care patients drop for the fourth consecutive day, 106 fewer today; as many as 5 regions - Umbria, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Molise and above all Lombardy and Emilia Romagna - show fewer patients; the increase in positives is only 880 patients, less than half of Monday.

"It is the lowest increase recorded since March 10" says the head of the Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli. All this certainly does not mean that Italy will be out of emergency within a week. All scientists repeat it and the government is well aware that it continues to reiterate the line of maximum caution and prudence. "We must always keep in mind - explains Rezza, just to be clear - that the virus will remain in the population, it will be a tough fight, it is not that we get to zero infections in a week or a month and then everyone is free". This is why the imperative, even for the next few weeks, remains the same: to "strictly" maintain all measures of social distancing. "Any relaxation can mean a resumption of virus circulation."

What begins today, as Commissioner Domenico Arcuri says, is therefore a "long transition phase" in which it would be "unforgivable" not to keep the measures adopted so far because it would mean making the sacrifices made by the Italians useless. And this transition was at the center of the summit between the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, the ministers and the Scientific Technical Committee, even if no dates have been made for the possible reopenings. The line - on which all the participants agreed - is that of "gradualness and prudence" in the choices. This is why the prime minister will already see representatives of businesses and unions, as well as the regions, in the next few hours to decide how to broaden the range of permitted activities. Among these could be those connected to the food, pharmaceutical and health supply chains but also agriculture, mechanical companies, perhaps introducing a sort of 'risk index' for workers: those who are more exposed will have to use protective devices.

By Friday Conte should have concluded the meetings and then proceed to the new Dpcm on Saturday. Furthermore, the study on serological tests should be ready this week: an Istat sample of the population of about 200 thousand people will be carried out to have the spread of the virus as clear as possible in our country. But, Rezza warns, tests should still be "taken with caution" because to date "they are not entirely satisfactory". But when will the population be allowed to leave the house regularly or, for example, to go to the parks? Most likely not before May. And this should be the second step. A possible date could be that of 4, for a specific reason: as for Easter - when police checks are increased and some Regions are considering closing entire areas to guests arriving from outside - there is a need to avoid a exodus on the weekends of April 25 and May 1. But it is also true that the more time passes, the more difficult it is to keep people at home, as shown by the numbers of complaints, which continue to be high: over 10 thousand yesterday. In short, after the bridges, some openings will be granted, but to return to have a coffee in a bar or to eat with friends in the restaurant you will still have to wait.