• Commerce, retail sales increase: large-scale retail and online boom

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07 April 2020 "The international scenario is dominated by the health emergency. The necessary containment measures for Covid-19 are causing a generalized shock, without historical precedents, involving both supply and demand". Istat confirms this in the monthly note, substantially confirming what has already been announced at the time of the Institute's assessments on the 'Cura Italia' dl.

According to the opinions of families and businesses, the intensity of the crisis triggered by Coronavirus is already deeper than the previous ones, going even beyond the lows of 2008. This is what emerges from the graph reported in the Istat note on the trend of the Italian economy, accompanied by a first study of the impact of Covid-19.

In a scenario "characterized by the extension of the restrictive measures also to the months of May and June, the reduction in consumption would be 9.9%, with an overall contraction in added value equal to 4.5%". So Istat in the monthly note on the trend of the Italian economy, with the first predictions on the impact of Coronavirus. The limitation of production activities until the end of April would instead determine, on an annual basis, "a reduction in final consumption of 4.1%", he explains.

"The measures aimed at limiting the contagion from Covid-19 have led, in recent weeks, to the progressive closure, partial or total, of a large number of productive activities". Istat notes this, explaining that, on the basis of the national accounting data referring to the total economic and inclusive activities of the component of the economy not observed, "the limitation of the productive activities would involve 34.0% of the production", therefore beyond one third, and "27.1% of the added value".

"Although limited in time and restricted to a subset of sectors of economic activity", the measures taken to contain Coronavirus "are capable of generating a significant and widespread shock on the entire production system". So Istat in the monthly note that focuses on the Coronavirus emergency. In fact, he explains, "in addition to the direct effects connected with the suspension of the activity in the sectors involved in the measures, the production system would also suffer the indirect effects linked to the intersectoral relations".

Strong increase in food purchases in large retailers and online commerce in the coronavirus era. According to data released by Istat, in February the most significant increase in sales trend was recorded by large retailers, up 8.4%, and the one that grows with the greatest intensity in this segment is sales of food goods rose by 9.9% compared to a year earlier. As for small businesses, the value of sales increased by 3.3%.

Compared to February 2019, sales outside stores drop by 0.1% while e-commerce is growing steadily (+ 15.3%).

As for large retailers, in February last year there were 9.9% increases in sales in supermarkets, 9.6% in those in food discount stores and 8.7% in hypermarkets.

In February 2020, a monthly increase of 0.8% in value and 0.9% in volume is estimated for retail sales. Istat points out that, specifying that both the sales of food goods (+ 1.1% in value and + 1.2% in volume) and those of non-food goods (+ 0.5% in value) are increasing. On a trend basis, in February, there was an increase of 5.7% in value and 5.8% in volume. For Istat, the indices are affected by what happened since the end of the month, when the spread of Covid-19 presumably caused a growth in purchases in some sectors.