Édouard Philippe came to the grill on Thursday April 2. Before a fact-finding mission to the National Assembly, the French Prime Minister was asked to explain the scenarios currently envisaged by the executive for breaking out of the confinement. This is currently scheduled until April 15 but will most likely be extended again.

"We hope, and here again I am careful, to be able to move forward on the subject and present elements of a deconfinement strategy in the coming days, so as to give a perspective to our fellow citizens," explained Edouard Philippe. Pending announcements from the French government, here are the different options available to it.

• Total deconfinement : impossible in the absence of collective immunity

Asked about the timetable and the process envisaged, Édouard Philippe considers "probable that we are not going towards a general and absolute deconfinement in one go, everywhere and for everyone" , ensuring that the decision "will take into account above all the imperatives health".

"If we suddenly come out of confinement, a certain number of people who have never been in contact with the virus could find themselves exposed to contamination," explains Karine Lacombe, head of the infectious diseases department at Saint-Antoine hospital. in Paris, interviewed on the France 24 antenna. "This would lead to a second wave of infection which would again lead to saturation of healthcare services."

Karine Lacombe, infectious disease specialist

"Sequential and differential containment is important," said the epidemiologist. Because "the epidemic peak will not happen everywhere at the same time, notes Chloé Hecketsweiler, health journalist at Le Monde, in the Pandemic podcast. We were all confined at the same time but the virus circulates in a differentiated way according to the regions.

To definitively overcome the epidemic, the population must achieve collective immunity. According to this principle - also called gregarious immunity - the spread of a contagious disease in a population is stopped as soon as the majority of this population is immunized.

Each person achieves individual immunity as soon as they develop antibodies against a disease, either by primary contamination or by vaccination. Vaccinated individuals then protect themselves and act as a "firewall" for the unvaccinated. It is estimated that a given population achieves collective immunity when 60% of its population has this individual immunity.

• Deconfining by region: possible with massive tests

Questioned by the President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand (LREM), Édouard Philippe qualified the question of deconfinement as "frighteningly complex", recalling that there was "no precedent" nor "proven method".

He raised the possibility of "a deconfinement which would be regionalized" and "subject to a policy of tests, depending, who knows, on age groups". A scenario which is also studied in Italy where the president of the Council, Giuseppe Conte, evoked a "return to normal" which will have to be done "gradually".

However, this partial deconfinement is conditioned to technical imperatives. In order to be able to function, regionalized confinement will indeed have to be accompanied by massive screenings, according to Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute and member of the Scientific Council, interviewed on Europe 1. At that time, we will have to be ready . On the one hand with screening test capacities, with dedicated teams, so as to identify the outbreaks and isolate them very locally. We will have to have all this surveillance available, and decide who and how will be able to resume the activities necessary for everyone and for the economy, "he explains.

We would then see a return to the logic of isolation of "clusters" , such as that which prevailed in the early days of the epidemic.

The government seems determined to give itself the means since the joint press conference held on March 28 between Édouard Philippe and Olivier Véran notably insisted on the rise in screening regime, yet long neglected despite the recommendations of the WHO . Olivier Véran has thus promised "50,000 classic tests" per day by the end of April, to which will be added "more than 100,000" rapid tests per day "in June".

• Deconfining by age group : for a faster recovery of the economy

Another scenario mentioned by Édouard Philippe and whose existence has been confirmed by the epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet: prolonged confinement for vulnerable people, especially the elderly, until they reach collective immunity.

"They will have to stay confined longer. From the age of 60, the risk of developing a serious form and dying from the disease is greater," explains the doctor, who notably pleads for drastic rules in nursing homes. "You will have to be extremely careful because if they were exposed to the virus again, they would be more likely to develop serious forms."

This scenario would free the working population, less vulnerable to coronavirus, more quickly and gradually revive the country's economy.

• The "stop-and-go" of containment : a complicated option for economic recovery

The script had caused a stir when it had leaked in mid-March. A report published by the team of Neil Ferguson, epidemiologist at Imperial College London, announced measures over a dizzying 18-month period. This option provides for intermittent containment "until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunize the population, which could be the case for 18 months or more".

>> Read also: Coronavirus: social distancing is on track to last

"One of the first strategies imagined is a 'stop-and-go'. After the first wave, we release the population which finds its former life. The virus recirculates, which requires a new containment to avoid the engorgement of health systems. And so on until collective immunity ", explains Chloé Hecketsweiler of Le Monde.

However, this scenario, if it "works on paper", seems difficult to implement, according to this specialist in health issues.

"It does not necessarily work in real life. People will get bored, confinement is complicated to maintain, analyzes the journalist. Politically, this scenario is difficult to defend and economic life cannot start again."

• General surveillance : "not on the agenda" in France

The scenario seems to come out of the anticipation series "Black Mirror" but has nevertheless been adopted in China and South Korea to stop the spread: the electronic tracking of virus carriers.

>> Germany bets on cellphones and bluetooth to stem the pandemic

Asked about the possibility of developing geolocation solutions for French people, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe assured that this solution was not envisaged for the moment: "This has served, in some countries, to isolate people who were sick or had known someone who was sick. In France, this would not be legally allowed. "

According to the specialist media Numerama, the Prime Minister clarified, however, that it was not excluded to develop tools to "better trace the circulation of the virus" which would be based on voluntary membership of citizens.

This option is however seriously considered by Germany, which, inspired by the system in place in Singapore, wants to identify people who have been in contact with an infected person through their phone.

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