The first example concerns the municipality of Nembro, which has just over 11,000 inhabitants and is located a few miles northeast of Milan. In a normal year, 35 people would have died from the turn of the year until March 24, but this year there were 158 deaths.

"The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation," write doctors Claudio Candelli and Luca Foresti - now active as mayor and CEO - in the magazine Corriere Della Sera.

If the entire difference between normal mortality and this year's mortality is due to Covid-19, there are 123 deaths. However, the official death toll is only 31, just a quarter of the excess mortality that Candelli and Foresti calculated.

Even greater deviations

In three other municipalities, the deviations are even greater, they write: In Cernusco and Pesaro, the death toll is 6.1 times the official number of deaths in Covid-19. In Bergamo, the quota is 10.4: 500 people more than normal have died, compared to 48 officially dead due to the pandemic.

"It is extremely reasonable to imagine that this excess is largely a matter of elderly or frail people who have died at home or in institutions, without being admitted to hospital and without being tested to see if they have become infected with Covid. 19 "

The two doctors are also arguing about the mortality rate of the disease, which is still unknown as it is uncertain how many people were infected without being tested for the virus.

One percent mortality

They conclude that the mortality rate among those infected with Nembro can be estimated at 1 per cent, given the assumption that all residents are infected and that the 123 "extra" deaths are due to the corona virus. It is the same mortality calculated among those infected on the cruise ship Diamond Princess, they write.

In that case, this means that 600,000 people can be expected to die if all Italians are infected, Candelli and Foresti write. However, they do not mention the importance of whether the healthcare system can handle the cases of infection without being overwhelmed, which is usually mentioned as an important explanation for the high mortality rate in northern Italy.

Candelli is now mayor of Nembro and Foresti is the CEO of a private healthcare company.