Mathematicians in Spain unite to keep track of the virus and advise on government decisions

The search for a vaccine and the prognosis, based on the massive analysis of data , on the probable extension, duration and impact of the pandemic are two of the main research subjects that the scientific community faces from two disciplines that are currently twinned in the fights against Covid-19: biotechnology , in search of immunization, and mathematics , tracing the present and future trail.

In the case of mathematicians, highly valued today for their ability to draw practical conclusions from big data, various reports with more or less devastating graphs and forecasts have been known these days. Theorists have already shown that they are able to predict the consequences of a tsunami. And examples of effectiveness in the containment of infections such as Korea, with the tracking of those infected through the mobile phone, show that it is possible to do it with the coronavirus, as it already happened with Ebola.

What can be predicted from mathematical models? For example, the evolution and spread of the epidemic , globally and by Autonomous Community and, even, locally in the case of large cities, both at the level of confirmed cases, hospitalized and in the ICU, and in the population proportion virus carriers or individuals with the presence of antibodies. Also the effect that changes in the measures of confinement and social distancing would have on the development of the epidemic. Or even the distribution of scarce goods (masks, protective equipment, screening tests, staff shifts, etc.) among the agents involved to reduce deaths, stop the spread of the epidemic, limit differences in treatment towards agents or guarantee the rotation of personnel, etc.).

This includes optimization, in general, of the material and human resources available, both health-related and, where appropriate, all essential goods and services.

The problem with most of the known studies on the current pandemic is that they apply models with guarantees, but they click on the fundamental: the availability of reliable data with which to apply formulas and algorithms. This disparity of studies, added to the need for a "single voice" available to the authorities, has led the Spanish Mathematics Committee (CEMAT) to promote an initiative hitherto unprecedented in our country: the so-called Mathematical Action against the Coronavirus , which has been made available to the Government to, among other things, optimize decisions.

This initiative to centrally mobilize and coordinate mathematical research groups emerged in mid-March at the initiative of a group of researchers, including two professors from the Polytechnic University of Valencia: José Bonet , researcher at the Instituto de Matemática Pura and Applied and president of the Exactas section of the Royal Academy of Sciences, and Alfredo Peris , director of the IUMPA.

Although they are not experts in the mathematical models mentioned, since their field of research is different, they saw the need to launch the proposal . With them, Rosa Donat , vice-dean of the Faculty of Mathematics of the University of Valencia and president of the Spanish Society of Applied Mathematics (SEMA), as well as a member of the organizing committee of the International Congress of Applied and Industrial Mathematics (ICIAM), which brought together last year in Valencia thousands of mathematicians from all over the world.

It was considered convenient that said action be commanded by CEMAT , with whose executive committee the promoter group contacted the same weekend when the State of Alarm declared, and who immediately gave their approval and got down to work.

The concern that this group conveyed to Francisco Marcellán , professor at the Carlos III University of Madrid and president of the Royal Spanish Mathematical Society, was the need to constitute a "unique voice" and to try to correct the "dispersion of initiatives" that has been produced; with groups from very different universities making reports, and proposing measures to the authorities, ”as Professor Alfred Peris explains in conversation with EL MUNDO.

The first steps in this joint action by Spanish mathematicians has been to create an expert committee chaired by Francisco Cao , a researcher at the ICT Research Center (CITIC) at the University of La Coruña. Cao himself, in an interview in La Voz de Galicia , admitted that the models that are being applied so far "do not work well at all." The aforementioned committee is chaired by Alfonso Gordaliza , from the Institute of Research in Mathematics at the University of Valladolid.

Peris emphasizes this aspect: «The models are well thought out, the problem is that we do not have reliable , consistent data , and that is why they are failing. The model is not the problem, experts can fine-tune them by introducing more parameters, but the randomness introduced in the models cannot exceed a certain threshold for the results to be reliable ”.

Until now, mathematicians have worked with the information from the Carlos III Health Institute, but some errors and improvements to be applied have been detected, which have been transmitted to the authorities so that they can proceed to offer more useful data. "In the models that the experts work on , microdata is very important, down to detail and segment based on the parameter we want to measure," admits Professor Peris.

Hence, one of the fundamental objectives of Concerted Action is to have reliable and systematized data. The next step is the coordination of all the initiatives scattered throughout Spain. For example, reports such as those from the Department of Mathematics and Computing at the University of La Rioja; the MOMAT Group, from the Applied Mathematics department of the Complutense de Madrid, among many other groups.

Third, the action seeks to achieve a "consensual position" with which to "cooperate" with the authorities . An internal communication to all the groups in Spain, to which EL MUNDO has had access, shows the spirit that illuminates this collaborative initiative: "Let no one feel that we want to interfere with their work," it is stated. "Generosity must prevail here and we must all run away from protagonists." The objective, they point out, "must be to join efforts so that our contribution is effective".

“We cannot enter a crazy race to see who makes the forecast that finally hits. It can do us a lot of damage as a mathematical community. It is better to share ideas, hypotheses, models, scenarios, data, references, "they point out. «Contrast opinions, compare models and methods until achieving a truly decanted synthesis. If we join efforts, we can be truly useful in this crisis, "they admit.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Coronavirus
• Covid 19
• Valencian Community

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