Coronavirus: "I'm not sure there are big winners out of this health crisis"

France 24: How do you see this health crisis in terms of threats to the world economy?

Christian Harbulot : I cannot ignore the cracks that this major crisis has created in our own system. The political power and the high administration are on the brink of the precipice by pointing out so many contradictions in their speeches to try so clumsily to calm the game. One does not dare to imagine what would happen if the pandemic were even more violent. The inability of the state to enforce government measures across the country is, in my view, the main threat. On the economic level, the threat is conditioned by the additional debt, the range of which is currently assessed by the financial community between 300 and 1,000 billion euros. Who will pay this debt?

Are certain economic actors, States or companies tempted to take advantage of the situation to gain market share?

I'm not sure there are big winners out of this Covid-19 health crisis. Certainly, companies will take advantage of the avalanche of orders on specific products, but this "plus" will be very small in comparison with all the loss of activity and jobs if the crisis continues. The destabilization of the world economy is already very strong. Just one example: Boeing urgently needs $ 15 billion to deal with the crisis caused by its 737 Maxs, which have been grounded since March 2019 following two crashes. But it is in fact 150 billion that it takes to save its existence. And it is not the new Chinese competitor Comac who will replace this American giant, because the Chinese aeronautical industry is not ready to offer equivalent products to Americans and Europeans. Donald Trump does not want to stop the American economy, he understood that it was too heavy a threat for his country. He chooses to lose lives rather than implode the economy of his country. This choice may shock, but one can wonder about this decision which places the economic war in an order of magnitude more important than the "war" against a virus. History will judge.

The French Minister of the Economy arle unique opportunity to question the chains of world production, should we expect relocations?

If Bruno Lemaire's words are to be translated into credible acts, he will have to change the DNA of the Treasury administration and the body of the finance inspectorate. This fight is far from won because it is indeed a fight. The model of financial economy to which the majority of senior administration has adhered for decades has suffered a resounding failure. The study of the dismantling of our health survival system started under the presidency of François Hollande is a charge file that demonstrates the limits of the French-style liberal thinking system.

Bruno Le Maire also insists on economic sovereignty which must be consolidated, should states get more involved to defend their economic champions?

States no longer have a choice. We must save the living conditions on their territory, which means that the priority is to avoid disintegration. Market forces are incapable of ensuring this type of resilience. We will have to reinvent a system. The redefinition of the national challenges of the pharmaceutical industry obliges us to get out of the logics of free competition fixed by the European Commission, which prohibit any development of a national industrial policy. If the political power does not pass to the act, it puts itself the head on the chopping block. The people will not tolerate a bis repetita of the political, administrative and health inconsistencies which have been feeding the news for two months.

Is this likely to worsen global economic tensions?

These tensions already existed before the Covid-19 crisis. I do not see how the multiple difficulties which will be spread out over months will reduce the level of economic confrontations between the main world powers.

Does this exceptional health crisis sound the death knell for neoliberal globalization?

The promoters of neoliberal globalization do not have a plan B. They will do everything in their power to protect their interests, but the wick lit in Wuhan will be difficult to extinguish because it is no longer just a pandemic to absorb, but of an inconsistency of several systems to face. The hundreds of French companies who have understood that too much dependence on a foreign country could be fatal are already rethinking their mode of operation. It's a survival reflex. Such examples are not isolated. Economic dependence will finally be taken into account by the business world. This awareness is highly beneficial for the future.

Can we build a new model with the same people at the helm of political and economic power?

I do not believe. History shows the opposite. This is not another course in a business school attended by our elites that will allow to change the software, as we say. It is high time to start thinking differently.

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