The public health authorities' calculations are based on a model that takes into account how the disease has developed in Wuhan province in China and in Italy.

According to this model, the pressure on health care will increase sharply. When things get worse, you can't say today. Different regions will also have their peak during different weeks, but state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says that it currently looks like the health care will be standing.

- In dialogue with the regions, this means that this is a manageable future.

According to the calculation, in the most intensive week in Stockholm, care will need to care for about 800 people who have become ill in covid-19, of which 250 in intensive care, IVA.

The corresponding calculation for Västra Götaland provides around 650 people in outpatient care and just under 200 at IVA. In Skåne, the prognosis is about 500 hospitalized and around 150 in intensive care, while a smaller region such as Norrbotten is expected to receive 100 patients in care, 25 of whom are on IVA. Here is the Public Health Authority's calculation of how many people need intensive care in the different regions at the peak of the corona eruption.

Delay the spread

It is now essential to delay the spread of infection as long as possible.

- The top of the curve will be lower the longer we wait, says Anders Tegnell.

If the forecast models are to be true, it means that the more than 500 intensive care places that are normally found in the country will be greatly exceeded, but the National Board of Health and Welfare estimates that the care will cope with this burden.

Redistributing resources

- We plan to have a capacity that is larger when the critical week occurs. The regions are working intensively to reorganize their care, they are setting up planned operations and expanding resources. We also need to work smart across the country with the common resources. We should not have empty places anywhere and crowded in other places, says Johanna Sandwall, emergency manager of the National Board of Social Affairs.

Will efforts be enough?

- I think so, says Sandwall.

State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell says it is possible that the spread of infection will decrease during the summer.

- Our assessment is that summer will be of great importance, says Tegnell.