Untangling the puzzle ... How does Corona break down the health system and throw patients on the streets?

Dr.. Osama Abu Al-Rub

How can the new Corona virus Covid-19, whose death rate is only 1-2%, destroy the health system in the country, and are doctors exaggerating and plotting to scare people as the conspirators claim?

The truth is that doctors do not exaggerate, the numbers do not lie, and here we will show you exactly how Corona leads to the collapse of hospitals and the dumping of patients on the streets.

Since the outbreak of the Coruna virus began in Wuhan, China in December 2019, there have been around 220,000 infections worldwide, and nearly 9,000 deaths.

The spread of the Corona virus is rapid, and each infected transmits the infection on average to three people, and a new study showed that he can stay stuck in the air (open) three hours, and be able to cause infection, and this may explain the speed of its spread.

Corona virus has a generation period of four to five days, which is the period between a person being infected and being transmitted to another person, which is an important number for estimating the speed of the virus's spread.

Data indicate that 80% of the injured may have no symptoms or have mild symptoms, and only 20% need hospitalization, 5% of them will become critical, and 1-2% will die.

Why fear?
The answer is in one word: dumping, as Corona is able to destroy the health system by flooding a large number of patients in a short time, so that hospitals no longer have enough beds.

Globally, the capacity of the health system is measured by the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people, for example, in Germany - according to data published online - it is eight beds per thousand people.

In other countries, the percentage may be lower. For example, in Chile, there are approximately two beds per thousand people. It is clear that countries with weaker health systems have this number lower.

Also another criterion is the number of intensive care beds per 100,000 population, which is equipped with special instruments for critical conditions such as artificial respirators, which play an essential role in dealing with CK-19 patients.

This number also varies. For example, in Germany there are 29 intensive care beds for every 100,000 residents, while in Portugal there are four beds.

On average, 60-70% of the family in the health system is occupied with patients with surgeries, cancer, traffic accidents and difficult chronic conditions. This means that what is available will not exceed 40% of the family.

Virtual city
Suppose you live in a city with a population of one thousand people, this means that the hospital in your city has eight families, including five beds occupied by cancer and accidents patients, and the remaining three are.

Suppose that the Corona virus entered the city, on the first day there will be one infected, and during twenty days and according to the period of the generation of the virus the number will exceed one hundred, and that also only data that indicates that every person causes infection for about three, and that there is no quarantine in the city.

Of the 80 injured, 80 will not have symptoms or will be mild and will not need to be hospitalized. The remaining twenty are injured, need hospitalization, but here are only three beds!

The result here is that 17 will not be hospitalized and will not receive health care, and therefore a greater proportion of them will die than if they are hospitalized. Also, with the development of the epidemic, there will no longer be a place for cancer and accidents patients, so they will not be hospitalized and they will end up on the street!

These patients will not have access to health care, because the family is busy with Corona patients, and this means that they will be more vulnerable to complications and death.

On the other hand, the pressure will be greater on doctors, meaning that oncologists and diabetes will also become busy with Corona patients, and they will be exhausted, just as a percentage of them will develop corona, which leads to a decrease in their number, and to make matters worse.

Corona deaths are in fact not only limited to virus deaths, but also include deaths of people who are sick with problems, other diseases or accidents who were unable to enter the hospital because they do not have a family, or have not received adequate health care, because there is a shortage of doctors and services.

This explains the World Health Organization (WHO) warning that "no health system in the world is able to cope with the consequences of corona."

What epidemiologists fear most is that the health care system will be mired in a sudden burst of disease, which requires more people to enter the hospital than it can handle, and in this scenario more people will die because there will not be enough hospital beds or respirators Artificial to keep them alive.

What is the solution?
The solution is to prevent catastrophic dumping of hospitals by taking preventive measures, namely closure and blocking gatherings, social spacing, such as closing schools and universities, places of worship and shopping malls and canceling parties, canceling group gatherings, work from home and self-quarantine and self-isolation and avoid crowding, to prevent the virus from spreading quickly .

Epidemiologists call this strategy to prevent a large rise in "curve flattening" cases, that is, not to allow a dramatic rise in the number of cases of illness (injury curve) so that the health system is not overwhelmed.

By flattening the curve, countries that cannot actually stop the virus can slow its spread, at least until the health-care system can adequately care for people, thereby avoiding what happened in Italy, for example, where the outbreak has pushed some hospitals to breaking points.

Interpretation of China's success
This method explains the success of China, as China worked to flatten the curve through the procedures of complete closure and prevent mixing, and also worked on a very rapid increase in the number of beds by building temporary hospitals, in order to prevent the dumping of the health system with Corona patients and thus its collapse.

The method is effective, as China announced on Thursday that it had not recorded any new local source of the virus in the past 24 hours, in a precedent of its kind since Beijing began counting the infections in January.

One of the striking things is the terrible ability of China to build a huge hospital in less than two weeks just to treat the epidemic patients. Today, many countries seek to do the same. The same applies to Germany, where the state of Berlin announced its intention to establish a private hospital to treat people infected with the Coronavirus.

The aim of the hospital is to face the "acute shortage" in the event that the number of injuries rises to staggering levels, especially since the Robert Koch Institute for Scientific Research, and in a new assessment of the situation inside Germany, spoke yesterday morning (Wednesday 18 March) by its director Lothar Feller On the rise in the next few weeks it may reach ten million injuries.

persistent need
It is noteworthy that a quick look at the number of beds in the capital's hospitals in Berlin, which has the largest residential community in the Federal Republic of Germany with a total of 3.6 million people, confirms the urgent need to establish a "Corona Hospital" as described in the local press.

The family equipped with artificial respirators that have become very necessary after the spread of the epidemic, reaches 1045 beds, according to data of the Ministry of Health office in Berlin, 80% of them are already reserved even before the global pandemic arrived in Germany.

The number of confirmed infections with the Corona virus in Berlin has reached until Tuesday evening 383 cases, while the number, according to the estimates of the Robert Koch Institute in the total of Germany, reached 9,600 cases as of yesterday evening Wednesday.