Many countries have cancelled or postponed their scheduled military exercises due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Linkage effect behind Azerbaijani military exercise
A large-scale military exercise was held in Azerbaijan from March 2 to 6. Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defence stated that the exercise is an annual exercise of the Afghan army. The exercise format includes field exercises, map deductions and sand table exercises. It will use various arms and a variety of weapons and equipment, and will widely use information technology to assist combat units in completing The combat plan scheduled by the command. In the context of the cancellation or postponement of the original military exercise due to the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in many countries, it is quite special for Azerbaijan to still hold large-scale military exercises.
Azerbaijan is located on the coast of the Caspian Sea in the South Caucasus, with a small area, but rich in oil and gas resources, an important geographical location, and a complex surrounding environment. In particular, there are territorial disputes and ethnic conflicts between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia, and armed conflicts have repeatedly occurred as a result of competing for Nagorno-Karabakh region. In April 2016, a large-scale military conflict broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In recent years, the two sides have still faced tensions in disputed areas. In order to keep the military in a state of readiness, in recent years, Azerbaijan has held various forms of national and joint military exercises in its territory every year. For example, in March 2019, the Azerbaijani army held a large-scale military exercise with nearly 10,000 participants; in September, it held a joint "Caucasus Eagle" military exercise with Turkey and Georgia; in November, Azerbaijan again held a large-scale military exercise covering the entire army exercise.
Although this military exercise in Azerbaijan is an annual exercise, it also contains some notable subtle changes in combination with the country's recent foreign policy trends. As the geopolitical pattern of the South Caucasus is affected by neighboring and external powers, Azerbaijan's recent moves to strengthen its military strength have shown a certain synergy with the situation in other regions.
In addition to maintaining traditional relations with the United States, the European Union, and Turkey, Azerbaijan has gradually strengthened its security cooperation with Russia and Iran, its two neighbors. Historically, Russia has been more inclined to support Armenia in the South Caucasus, which has put Azerbaijan at a disadvantage in conflicts with Armenia. Recently, Azerbaijan has taken the initiative to strengthen its security relations with Russia and tried to purchase Russian weapons and equipment. At the same time, Azerbaijan has also continuously strengthened its security ties with Iran, and the two countries have established closer cooperative relations in the areas of national defense security and the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking. This has caused anxiety in Turkey, which has always regarded Azerbaijan as a fraternal country and a quasi-alliance. Just one day before the second joint military commission meeting between Azerbaijan and Iran was held in Tehran, Turkish President Erdogan visited Azerbaijan. The two countries signed 14 cooperation agreements and planned to increase the bilateral trade volume from the current US $ 2 billion per year. To $ 15 billion per year. The two countries also signed a military cooperation agreement, Turkey promised to provide more modern weapons to Azerbaijan, and plans to jointly produce military equipment.
The situation in the South Caucasus is also linked to the recent situation in Syria. In recent years, Turkey has been seeking more outside support for its military operations in Syria. Countries such as Azerbaijan and Georgia, as Turkey's main long-term operating partners, may be one of the few supporters. Recently, the military conflict in Idlib, Syria has brought Turkey and Syrian government forces into a confrontation and worsened the Turkish-Russian relationship. Turkey, which lacks strength, is eager to seek international support.
Because of Turkey's special relationship with Azerbaijan, Armenia is concerned that Turkey supports Azerbaijan to provoke war in the disputed area and challenges its control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Erdogan has repeatedly stated during his visit to Azerbaijan that he fully supports Azerbaijan's position on the disputed territory, and said in a high profile that this is also a matter for Turkey. Under these circumstances, Armenia is very sensitive to military exercises in Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan's military exercises set off new waves in the tense South Caucasus, but the spillover effect of the situation in the region is limited, and Turkey and Azerbaijan will not easily provoke new regional conflicts. Russian military presence may face military confrontation It also served as a deterrent.
(Author: Middle East Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)
Zou Zhiqiang