Dmitry Shugaev, head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), in an interview with Russia-24 TV channel, said that Moscow and Ankara intend to sign a new contract for the supply of a regiment set of the Triumph S-400 long-range air defense missile system (SAM).

“I think that in the foreseeable future we will conclude a second contract. It implies a certain participation of Turkish partners in the production process ... We are in a rather serious stage, technical issues are almost resolved, and so on, ”said Shugaev.

According to the head of the FSMTC, last year Turkey entered the top five largest importers of Russian weapons. In 2019, Moscow and Ankara entered into contracts for $ 17 billion.

In December last year, the head of the FSMTC told reporters that Russia and Turkey are likely to sign a new contract for the supply of Triumph in 2020.

“We hope that in the first half of 2020 we will come to the signing of contract documents. But I want to emphasize that military-technical cooperation with Turkey is not limited to the supply of S-400. We have big plans ahead, ”RIA Novosti quotes Shugaev.

C-400 instead of Patriot

In January, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov spoke about the possibility of concluding a new contract with Turkey for the sale of S-400. At the end of November last year, the general director of Rosoboronexport, Alexander Mikheev, announced that Ankara would receive a second regimental set as part of the “new option”. He also noted that the terms of reference transferred to the Turks provided for partial localization of Triumph's production.

In September 2019, speaking at the XIV International Strategic Forum in the Slovenian city of Bled, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that Ankara will acquire an additional batch of S-400 if it is not possible to agree with the United States on the delivery of the Patriot anti-aircraft complex.

“Today we need more systems until we can produce our own. And if we can buy from the USA, we will buy Patriot. If not, then we will buy another S-400. We are an independent country, ”said Cavusoglu.

The first deal for the sale of Triumph, Moscow and Ankara concluded in April 2017. The cost of the contract for four air defense divisions was estimated at $ 2.5 billion. Turkey pledged to pay upfront 45% of the total, the remaining 55% was Russian credit. On November 1, 2019, Alexander Mikheev reported on the early completion of deliveries to Turkey of all elements of an air defense system.

To date, there is no information on the parameters of the new Russian-Turkish agreement. Interviewed by RT experts believe that specific data should be expected in the coming months. Nevertheless, analysts expressed confidence that the deal for the second regimental set of S-400 will be concluded.

“Ankara has repeatedly made it clear that it intends to acquire a long-range anti-aircraft missile system. It was not possible to agree on this with the United States because of political disagreements. Therefore, Turkey turned to Russia, which does not impose political conditions on its partners, ”said the head of the Department of Political Science and Sociology at REU named after RT in a conversation with RT. G.V. Plekhanov, retired colonel Andrei Koshkin.

According to the expert, among other things, Turkey appreciates Russia's readiness to meet the partners in military-technical cooperation in the field of cooperation. According to Koshkin, Moscow and Ankara are likely to find a transaction option that will localize the release of some components for S-400 in Turkey.

In an interview with RT, the editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Viktor Murakhovsky said that in recent years the Turkish military-industrial complex (MIC) has reached a level of development that allows deploying the production of individual elements of Triumph at its facilities. At the same time, the expert noted that the organization of such cooperation will become a complex and time-consuming process.

  • Elements of the S-400 Triumph at the Turkish airport
  • AFP
  • © TURKISH DEFENSE MINISTRY

“Even before the signing of the first contract (on S-400. - RT ), Ankara indicated that it was striving for joint production. S-400 is the embodiment of high technology in the military sphere. Turkey will not be able to produce many elements, or it will have to create entire directions in the defense industry complex from scratch. Nevertheless, the Turks have a good backlog in the field of electronics. Here it just might come in handy, ”says Murakhovsky.

In addition, according to the analyst, the Turkish defense industry is quite capable of producing auxiliary units, assemblies, hydraulic devices, power supplies and wheeled chassis, on which combat vehicles and S-400 launchers can be placed.

“Speaking in general, Ankara will probably master the production of general industrial products, that is, products that do not require developed competencies in the field of air defense. In this regard, it can be assumed that anti-aircraft missiles, for example, will be of Russian production, ”Murakhovsky explained.

Common strategic interests

A statement by Dmitry Shugaev about the possible conclusion between Russia and Turkey of a second contract for the supply of S-400 was made against the backdrop of a restored truce in the Syrian province of Idlib. In winter, fierce hostilities broke out in this region between government forces supported by the Russian Air Force, on the one hand, and local armed forces and the Turkish army, on the other.

On March 5, in Moscow, as a result of negotiations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a ceasefire was restored in Idlib. And on March 15, Russian and Turkish troops began joint patrols along the strategically important M4 highway in Syria, control of which was one of the reasons for the confrontation.

Experts believe that in the near future, the contradictions between Moscow and Ankara on Idlib will not leave the agenda. However, the result of the Moscow talks and the continuation of intensive military-technical cooperation indicate that both states are aware of a commonality of strategic interests.

“The existing differences in views on Syria do not negatively affect economic relations and contacts in the military-technical field. Moscow and Ankara are united by large mutually beneficial projects. The purchase of the S-400 is a kind of symbol of the fact that both states intend to move forward and overcome the difficulties that arise, ”says Koshkin.

According to the expert, military-technical cooperation with Russia allows Turkey to develop the army and the defense industry regardless of the policies of Western states, including the United States. Koshkin recalled that Europe and Washington repeatedly threatened Ankara with sanctions, and also blocked the supply of components and military equipment.

  • SAM launchers S-400
  • RIA News
  • © Alexey Malgavko

“I think that Erdogan is very annoyed by the constant impetus from the West and especially the USA. In such conditions, without reliance on Russia, including in the military sphere, it will be difficult for him to maintain a sovereign political course, ”said Koshkin.

In turn, Viktor Murakhovsky stressed that he did not see the prerequisites for the complication of relations between Moscow and Ankara. According to him, regardless of how the situation in Syria develops, Turkey will continue to export domestic weapons and use the services of Russian specialists in the operation and repair of military equipment.

“We are strengthening military cooperation with Turkey and are moving to a systematic long-term cooperation that will connect Russia and Turkey for decades. This strengthens trust between the two states and opens up horizons for cooperation in other areas besides military-technical, ”summed up Murakhovsky.