Johannesburg (AFP)
Only the Covid-19 was missing ... Already sick, the South African economy is preparing for new difficulties because of the coronavirus pandemic, which threatens two of its main sources of foreign currency, mines and tourism .
As soon as the scale of the global health crisis, which started in China, was confirmed, the flashing lights of the mining groups operating in the continent's leading industrial power have all gone from orange to red. And for good reason.
"Sales of iron, manganese and chromium account for two-thirds of South Africa's total exports to China," summarized in a recent note from Strategy &, a subsidiary of the audit firm Price Waterhouse Cooper. .
The Chinese market absorbs each month "8.5 to 9 billion rand (more than 450 million euros) of South African metals," AFP economist Tafadzwa Chibanguza told AFP.
"A decline in the growth of the Chinese economy and in the production of metals will reduce the demand for raw materials" from South Africa, said Strategy &.
Analysts say this scenario has already started to happen. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the coronavirus will cost China one point of growth this year (6.1% in 2019) and slow down the global economy as a result.
The epidemic could not have been worse for South Africa, which plunged back into recession in the last quarter of 2019.
Over 2019 as a whole, its gross domestic product (GDP) increased only 0.2%, its smallest increase since the global financial storm of 2008.
The country has been stuck for more than a decade in a crisis manifested by sluggish growth, the deterioration of public finances, mass unemployment (29.1%) and, more recently, repeated power outages.
One of the symptoms is the decline of the mining sector, once one of the main providers of wealth in South Africa. Victim of variations in raw material prices and rising production costs, he saw his workforce - 450,000 employees today - melt each year.
- 'Significant losses' -
"If the Chinese slowdown is confirmed or worsens, the South African mining sector will suffer significant losses that will affect both employees and businesses," has already warned the firm Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies.
And since a misfortune never happens alone, other essential parts of the economy should also bear the brunt of the impact of the coronavirus.
Starting with tourism. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, the sector contributes directly and indirectly to 10% of South African GDP and reported in 2018 to the country 139 billion rand (7.5 billion euros).
The Chinese thus rank 7th among foreign visitors who disembark each year in South African cities or natural parks. They were 97,000 in 2018.
It is still too early to assess the impact of the massive confinements and movement restrictions imposed on its nationals by Beijing. Strategy & recalls that the 2009 swine fever epidemic caused a 15% drop in the number of Chinese tourists to South Africa.
An equivalent decline due to a new coronavirus would translate into a loss equivalent to 11 million euros for the local tourism industry.
"Our tourism industry has already suffered heavy losses," the minister in charge of the sector, Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane, told the press this week. "Without a doubt, these losses will further increase," she added.
To complete this bleak picture, the fishing industry must be added to the list of potential victims of the virus. In particular that of lobster, sold 95% on the Chinese market.
Since Beijing suspended its imports of South African crustaceans, their price has plummeted from 340 to 120 rand (from 18.5 to 6.5 euros) per kilo, endangering the entire industry.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa himself has repeatedly warned his country in recent days. The virus "will have a negative impact on an economy which, as we all know, is already in a precarious situation".
© 2020 AFP