Original title: Interview: Global oil demand or contraction this year-Interview with Egypt's international energy expert Mezart Yusuf
Xinhua News Agency, Cairo, March 10th, Interview: Global oil demand or contraction this year-Interview with Egypt's international energy expert, Mezart Yusuf
Xinhua News Agency reporter Yan Jing and Wu Danni
Former Chairman of Egypt Petroleum Corporation and international energy expert Mezart Youssef said in an exclusive interview with a Xinhua News Agency reporter in Cairo that global oil demand may appear this year due to the increase in alternative energy sources, the plunge in international oil prices and the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Shrinking for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
Yousef said that as natural gas output grows year by year, its role as an alternative energy source for petroleum is constantly emerging; electricity is becoming a new energy source in the automotive industry; and Europe and other regions are committed to the development and use of renewable energy technologies . These factors may lead to a further contraction in global oil demand.
Yusuf pointed out that after the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, global business travel and aviation and sea transportation demand significantly reduced, and the oil production industry will inevitably be affected. Under the influence of all factors, global oil demand may contract for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.
In response to the recent turbulence in the global energy pattern caused by the recent failure of oil producers to reach an agreement to reduce production and the sudden reduction in oil prices in Saudi Arabia, Yusuf said that in terms of energy, due to the strong relationship between oil producers and natural gas producers, Saudi Arabia cut prices and increased production The decision will cause huge losses to natural gas producers and oil producers.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to reach a new agreement with Russia on the restriction of crude oil production. Saudi Arabia, an OPEC member and the world's number one oil exporter, announced that it would significantly reduce official oil prices and increase production since April. International oil prices have recently There has been a panic plunge, and investors' hedging demand has risen sharply, driving financial markets such as global stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and bond markets to set off a huge storm.
Yousef believes that Saudi Arabia's decision will greatly affect the pricing of European imports of oil from Russia, thus hurting Russia's domestic economy. "But at present it will not trigger a large-scale oil price war."
Yusuf analyzed that Russia and OPEC member countries always have common interests. When OPEC sought to reduce production many years ago, Russia, which was not a member state, stated that it wanted to reach an international agreement, which was also in line with Russia's overall strategy of seeking market supply and demand price balance.
Speaking of the follow-up effects of the slump in oil prices, Yusuf said that hopes for a rebound in oil prices in the short term may be partly pinned on the rapid control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. If oil prices continue to fall, some oil production companies will face difficulties and can only maintain profitability at low oil prices by selling assets and improving operating efficiency.