In its report, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) announced a "reduction" in the volume of arms exports of the Russian Federation. According to the organization, the supply of Russian arms abroad in 2015-2019 allegedly fell by 18% compared with the previous five-year period (2010-2014).

Alexander Kuimov, a researcher at the SIPRI arms and military spending program, explains this as a “decrease” in demand from India. According to her, the increase in Russian arms exports to Egypt and Iraq “could not compensate for the decline” in the total volume of deliveries of military products to New Delhi in 2015-2019.

Moreover, as noted in SIPRI, Russia remains the second in the ranking of the largest arms exporters. The United States is the leader, France is on the third line, Germany is on the fourth and China is on the fifth.

According to analysts, arms exports from the USA in 2015-2019 compared with 2010-2014 increased by 23%, from France - by 72%, from Germany - by 17%. Data for China are not provided in the report.

However, SIPRI statistics do not correspond to Rosoboronexport information (part of Rostec) about the sale of domestic weapons abroad over the past ten years. According to the agency, the arms export of the Russian Federation shows a positive trend.

From 2010 to 2014, the volume of sales of Russian weapons to foreign countries has consistently increased. According to Rosoboronexport, in 2010 it amounted to $ 8.7 billion, in 2011 - $ 10.7 billion, in 2012 - $ 12.9 billion, in 2013 and 2014 - about $ 13.2 billion.

Over the next five-year period, indicators remained at the same level. In 2015, Moscow exported arms worth $ 12.7 billion, in 2016 - $ 13 billion, in 2017 - $ 13.4 billion, in 2018 - $ 13.7 billion. The forecast sales figure for 2019 was announced by the chapter Rostec by Sergei Chemezov in mid-November at an exhibition in Dubai.

“The results of Rosoboronexport speak for themselves. Last year, we delivered products worth $ 13.7 billion, this year there will be even a little more, or also ”, Chemezov told reporters.

According to estimates by the Russian Center for the Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAMTO), the volume of Russian exports abroad amounted to $ 14.1 billion. According to the head of this organization, Igor Korotchenko, in an interview with RT, "the real number of sales is obviously higher."

“Significant figure”

In March 2019, SIPRI also recorded a “drop” in Russian arms sales. According to researchers, in 2014-2018, Moscow sold 17% less military products abroad than in 2009-2013. The reason for the “decrease” in the volume of trade, analysts called a reduction in imports of Russian weapons by India and Venezuela by 42 and 96%, respectively.

Last year, statistics from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute were criticized by Rostec. The press service of the state corporation said that "the SIPRI data on the fall in the volume of Russian arms exports is not true." As the company emphasized, “big questions arise for the methodology of these calculations.”

“The growth in sales through the military-technical cooperation (military-technical cooperation. - RT ) has been recorded over the past ten years. The delivery plan in 2018 was completed by Rosoboronexport in full, while their volume was a record, reaching $ 13.7 billion, ”RIA Novosti told Rostec.

In December last year, SIPRI recorded a decrease in the share of sales of ten leading Russian defense companies in the global arms market. The researchers' report said that in 2018, the top 10 largest domestic enterprises accounted for 8.6% of global arms exports, and in 2017 - 9.7%.

At the same time, as the authors of the report note, the demand for the products of Russian defense companies remains stable, and the export volume of Almaz-Antey Concern JSC is even increased due to the popularity of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. The decrease in the total share of sales of Russian companies in the global market SIPRI is associated with an increase in exports of American and European manufacturers.

According to experts interviewed by RT, statistics from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute are controversial and conditional. The data provided by the organization cannot be the basis for “far-reaching conclusions” in the field of world arms trade.

“SIPRI claims that Moscow has reduced the supply of military products to India, and significantly. However, such a conclusion, to put it mildly, is not obvious. In the Indian market for Russia there are no radical changes. India remains the leading buyer of domestic weapons, which is reflected in the high share of the Russian Federation in the arms imports of this country, ”military expert Alexei Leonkov said in an interview with RT.

  • Indian Army T-90 tanks during a parade in New Delhi
  • Reuters
  • © Altaf Hussain

The analyst recalled that in recent years, Moscow and New Delhi have concluded a number of major contracts in the field of military-technical cooperation. We are talking about the purchase of ten divisions of the S-400 air defense system in the amount of 330 billion rubles, frigates of the project 11356 and various ammunition.

In March 2019, the plant for the production of Russian AK-203 assault rifles was opened in the Indian city of Korva. At its facilities, New Delhi expects to release more than 700 thousand units of this firearm. In addition, India continues to produce Russian aircraft under license and develop cooperation in the development of cruise missiles.

In the near future, it is expected to conclude a contract for the supply of India of car kits (a set of basic units, components and systems) for the assembly of 464 T-90MS tanks. The transaction value will be $ 1.93 billion.

In September 2019, the head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS) Dmitry Shugaev estimated India's portfolio of orders for domestic military products at $ 14.5 billion. According to him, despite pressure from the United States, New Delhi continues to purchase weapons in Russia .

“Last year (2018 - RT ) and today marked the emergence of a huge portfolio of orders for $ 14.5 billion compared to all other years. This is a very significant figure, and indeed this is a breakthrough,” RIA Novosti quotes Shugaev.

As Leonkov suggests, SIPRI researchers could “tell” to statements regularly appearing in the media and social networks that India was allegedly dissatisfied with Russian military equipment and was looking for a replacement.

“Official statistics do not support SIPRI's findings for India. Of course, we had years when sales were slightly lower, because India, as part of diversification, traditionally buys weapons in other countries. Nevertheless, no disaster occurs. Our cooperation with Delhi remains at a consistently high level, and Russia maintains its status as the main arms supplier for India, ”Leonkov emphasized.

“In a stable position”

In its submissions, SIPRI indicates that it uses a database that contains information on the supply of major weapons (including sales, military assistance and production licenses) to states, international organizations and non-governmental armed groups.

“The database provides information on the volume of arms supplies, but does not reflect the financial value of transactions. Since shipments can vary significantly from year to year, SIPRI provides data for a five-year period, allowing for a more balanced trend analysis, ”explains SIPRI.

  • Fighter Su-35S, very popular abroad
  • © Vladimir Astapkovich

According to TSAMTO, Russia's sales in the global arms market are not declining. As Igor Korotchenko explained, the World Arms Trade Analysis Center “operates on open information, based on contracts that can be identified and counted.” According to him, SIPRI has repeatedly made mistakes in the methodology for calculating arms exports.

“SIPRI's information on the drawdown in sales volumes is erroneous and is due to the lack of a qualified database on the export-import of weapons in the world at this institute. SIPRI cannot be a source of reliable data on arms exports, the institute operates with estimated numbers, ”Korotchenko said.

In mid-December last year, at a meeting of the commission on military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is strengthening its presence in the global arms market.

"Russia's positions in the global arms market are strengthening, and this despite the strengthening of the sanctions regime and unfair competition ... In general, the portfolio of orders for Russian weapons is at a stable level and exceeds $ 50 billion," Putin said.

Igor Korotchenko noted that Moscow is not experiencing any serious export problems. The Russian Federation provides stable supplies to partners in military-technical cooperation.

“Russia maintains second place in terms of arms sold for export. The volume of Russian exports in recent years has not declined and is in a stable position. The situation in the Indian market looks similar, ”the expert concluded.