Ukraine may withdraw from international negotiations on a settlement in the Donbass until December, when the year marks the anniversary of the Norman Summit in Paris. This was stated by President Vladimir Zelensky in an interview with the British publication The Guardian, the full version of which was published on the morning of March 7.
He stated that he linked this to “progress” in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“The government can spend a year on the entire agreement, which then needs to be implemented. You can’t spend more time, ”Zelensky said, adding that in this case Kiev will change its policy.
Recall that according to the Minsk agreements, in the east of Ukraine, Ukraine is opposed to each other and the formation of certain areas of the Donbass (DPR and LPR). Russia does not take part in the conflict. At the same time, Kiev refuses to conduct a dialogue with the authorities of the self-proclaimed republics directly.
The Ukrainian leader also said that some of the provisions of the Minsk agreements on the settlement of the conflict should be changed. According to him, Kiev in 2014 assumed obligations under "pressure".
“There are clauses in the Minsk agreements that can be replayed a little, and if this is done, what can come of it bad?” - noted Zelensky.
At the same time, he claims that Kiev has “two or three plans” of action in the event of failure to negotiate a settlement. Zelensky also said that he did not intend to spend his entire five-year presidential term on working with Minsk.
“I will not spend the five years that Ukrainians gave me to spend five years working on Minsk. I won’t, ”said the President of Ukraine.
At the same time, it is not clear what prevents Ukraine from taking the path of implementing the Minsk agreements, because it is precisely about the obligations of Kiev, noted the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council committee on international affairs, Vladimir Dzhabarov.
“It is Ukraine that does not fulfill its part of the format agreements. Zelensky complains about himself, ”he told RT.
According to the senator, if Kiev leaves the Minsk process, "the situation will become unpredictable, anything can happen."
If Ukraine continues to take the path of aggravation of the situation, then a year later, Zelensky will either have to return his words or abandon the Donbass to get out of the situation, Viktor Vodolatsky, deputy chairman of the State Duma committee on CIS affairs, Eurasian integration, and relations with compatriots, said.
“If Kiev’s rhetoric and plans are militant, there will be no breakthrough and Zelensky will have to either refute his words or break all relations and completely abandon Donbass in a year,” the deputy stressed in an interview with RT.
Zelensky, as president, is responsible for ending the conflict in the east of the country, said Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries.
“His country has collapsed, he needs to restore the integrity of his state, and he gives us a year to do it for him. He is interested in restoring the integrity of the state, and he should not talk about it for a year, but as much as it takes to do this. It is his responsibility as president, ”he told RT.
- House after shelling in Gorlovka
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Minsk agreements and their implementation
Recall that the Minsk agreements impose on Ukraine a number of political obligations in relation to the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR. In particular, Kiev must ensure the operation of the temporary special status of these areas of the Donbass, after which local elections will be held there according to Ukrainian legislation. If the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recognizes the results of a plebiscite, a special status will be introduced on an ongoing basis. It was such a procedure, conventionally called the Steinmeier formula, was adopted by Kiev.
The arrangements also include some of the details of this process. For example, a special status should be coordinated with representatives of the republics and be reflected in the Constitution of Ukraine. Also, all participants in the hostilities in the Donbass should receive an amnesty.
Initially, a comprehensive ceasefire should be established in the Donbass, after which the warring parties are obliged to withdraw troops from the line of contact. The success of this process must be documented by the OSCE mission.
However, despite the fact that the Minsk agreements were signed by the parties back in 2014, and the so-called Minsk-2 in 2016, its implementation by Ukraine is at the initial level.
If the interim law on the special status of Donbass was adopted back in 2014 (and was repeatedly extended), then, for example, there is still no stable ceasefire in the region. After President Zelensky came to power last May, some steps were taken in this direction. In particular, Ukraine, after some hiccups, went to the withdrawal of forces in some areas, held an exchange of retained persons and agreed to the Steinmeier formula.
These steps created the conditions for holding the Norman-format summit in Paris in December 2019. The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany took part in it. During it, the parties agreed to work on the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
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However, the Ukrainian side increasingly began to propose revising some of its obligations. In particular, in Kiev they refuse to include clauses on the special status of Donbass in the Constitution, demand to regain control over the border of the republics with Russia, and also declare that they are not ready to provide amnesty for all combatants.
Commenting on Ukraine’s statements about the desire to change the Minsk accords, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that this process could lead to a deadlock.
“I was very alarmed by the statements of President Zelensky after he left Paris that they could be reviewed. If the revision of the Minsk agreements begins, the whole situation may even come to a standstill completely. Because the key to these Minsk agreements is the law on the special status of Donbass, which should be implemented in the Ukrainian basic law on an ongoing basis, ”the head of state said on December 19.
Alternative to the peace process
Saying that Ukraine will participate in the negotiations for only one more year, Zelensky is trying to blackmail the other parties to the dialogue and achieve a revision of the Minsk agreements, political analyst Yuriy Svetov admitted.
“To a certain extent, this is blackmail and pouting,” he said in an interview with RT. - Neither Macron nor Merkel will make changes. These are the words the price of the paper on which the Guardian printed them. ”
Moreover, the alternative that Zelensky most likely had under the “two or three plans” is a military way to resolve the conflict, Svetov noted. To simplify this scenario, the political scientist believes, Kiev is trying to get the border under its control.
“Their old dream is to take in ticks and squeeze out from the people who are there, all that they want. Such hopes are nourished. For me, one of the signs of the possibility of this situation (military plan. - RT ) is that Arsen Avakov again remained Minister of the Interior. The most odious forces of nationalists are subordinate to this person, ”Svetov noted.
So, on March 6, the DPR announced that the Ukrainian military had returned to the positions left during the separation of forces. Kiev denies these reports.
“At present, our observers at positions near the area of the separation of forces and assets number 3 in the Petrovskoye-Bogdanovka area recorded the return of the invaders to the lines inside the division of breeding and equipping them with new positions,” said a representative of the People’s Militia Directorate of the self-proclaimed republic.