Chinese researchers have warned that the number of patients with new coronavirus infections outside of China (Corona 19) is likely to increase 10-fold every 19 days.
According to Hong Kong Media South China Morning Post (SCMP), a research team led by Professor Jin Ji, a vice president and geneticist at Fudan University in China, recently published the findings on the medRxiv Medical Thesis Pre-Publishing Platform.
In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, the team used a simple linear model and data collected by the end of last month to predict diffusion.
As a result, SCMP said that the number of patients with Corona19 outside China could increase tenfold every 19 days.
"The spread of viruses is complex and diverse around the world," says the team. "Using a simple model can simplify the situation and provide a rough estimate of the trend."
As small as the sample size is available, complex models can produce confusing and conflicting results.
SCMP says the team's claims may seem pessimistic, but according to the World Health Organization (WHO) report, the actual number of patients (14,768) last five days was 21 times higher than last month's 16th (683).
"The situation is dangerous," the research team said. "To prevent proliferation, the world is urging the world to take strong public health action using the experiences of China and Singapore."
The team also used the model to suggest that Corona 19 may have had 34 early carriers in other regions at or near the same time as when the first sponsors came from Wuhan, Hubei, China.
It is possible that these carriers did not go to the hospital because they were mild or asymptomatic.
SCMP added that the first known person outside of China was a woman who traveled from Wuhan to Thailand and was confirmed on 13 January.
(yunhap news)
"Corona 19 patients worldwide, 10 times more likely every 19 days"
2020-03-07T21:53:13.440Z
Chinese researchers have warned that there is a 10-fold increase in the number of patients with new coronavirus infection outside China. The research team, led by Professor Truth, a vice president and geneticist at the South China Morning Post University in Hong Kong, recently unveiled the findings on a platform for publishing medical papers.
Source: sbskr