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06 March 202019.42 After S&P, Moody's also predicts marked effects of the coronavirus emergency on the Italian economy. The rating agency expects GDP to drop by 0.5% in the first quarter as the first baseline scenario. epidemic could lead to -0.7% The forecasts for the world economy are also heavy: "The risks of global recession have increased", Moody's said: "The longer the impact of the epidemic on economic activity, the more a demand shock that would lead to recessive dynamics will dominate ".