Analysis: "Hardly the end of suffering for civilians"

Since December, the largest mass flight in the history of the Syrian war in Idlib province is ongoing. The situation is similar to a nightmare. Nearly one million civilians have been forced to flee. Hospitals have been bombed, food and children have been frozen to death when forced to sleep outdoors in minus degrees.

At the same time, the tension between Russia and Turkey was the highest in several years when Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin today held a crisis meeting in Moscow.

Russia participates in the Syrian war on President Bashar al-Assad's side and Turkey supports a multitude of rebel and jihadist groups fighting against the Syrian government forces. In recent weeks, the conflict between Syrian regime forces and Turkey has flared up in Idlib, and today's meeting has been described as a last chance for Russia and Turkey to resolve the crisis.

The meeting began with condolences from Putin. Some 60 Turkish soldiers were killed in Syria in February, and Turkish President Erdogan has basically declared war on Damascus with the offensive named "Operation Spring Shield".

Idlib is the last area in Syria controlled by the armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The area is dominated by jihadists linked to al-Qaeda, but here live three million civilians whose situation has become increasingly acute as the Syrian offensive escalated in January. With each passing day, worries are rising that the civilian suffering in Idlib may grow into the biggest humanitarian crisis in the Syrian war. As late as this morning, sixteen civilians, including a child, were killed in Russian bombings in Idlib.

Turkey has recently increased its military presence in northwestern Syria, where there are already so-called observation posts to monitor the ceasefire entered into in 2018 but which today collapsed. In practice, several of the Turkish posts are surrounded by Syrian government forces. Erdogan wants to create a security zone in Syrian territory where he intends to send Syrian refugees living in Turkey today.

At the same time, Syrian President Bashar al Assad's goal is to recapture the entire Idlib province, something he cannot do without support from Russia.

3.6 million Syrian refugees live in Turkey today. Last week, Turkey made it clear that it no longer intends to follow the agreement reached in 2016 - which meant that refugees and migrants are prevented from moving further from Turkish soil to Europe, in exchange for Turkey receiving EU assistance.

At the press conference after the meeting this evening, Vladimir Putin said that, based on the new agreement, it is hoped to lay the groundwork for an end to the fighting in Idlib. However, Erdogan said Turkey "retains the right to respond to all attacks from Damascus" despite the ceasefire that will begin at midnight.

If this becomes a reality, a ceasefire could provide temporary relief for the three million civilians living in Idlib. But it hardly means the end of humanitarian suffering when the Syrian war soon enters its tenth year.