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Waiting to know the vote count of diplomats abroad, soldiers, prisoners, sick in hospitals and, for the first time, of the voters who voted in special ballot boxes for the coronavirus, the third elections in eleven months grant the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a comfortable victory over the centrist leader Benny Gantz. However, his rightist block is missing two seats to form a government and break the political blockade.
In the absence of the count of more than 300,000 votes, Netanyahu obtains 36 seats for 32 of Gantz's 'Blue and White', which only six months ago had won by a point of difference. In the battle of blocks, Likud, the two ultra-Orthodox parties (the Sephardic Shas and the Ashkenazi Judaism of the Torah) and the Yamina nationalist religious party would win 59 of the 120 seats of the Knesset . The Joint List - which represents the Arab sector (21%) and has doubled the number of votes of the Jews - is confirmed as the third force from 13 to 15 seats.
"Due to the circumstances, it is a much more valuable victory than in 96 when he won by surprise the veteran head of Government Simón Peres", they presume in the surroundings of Netanyahu, who has held the position since 2009 and in office since April 2019. Circumstances? The imputation of corruption that will take him next September 17 to the Jerusalem district court for the formal start of the trial for bribery, fraud and abuse of trust . Netanyahu argues that he is innocent and did not give bribes in exchange for favorable information coverage.
Without deputy 61, Netanyahu will try to attract some of the rival camp with a ministerial portfolio . In fact, this morning already began the discreet contacts. The second option, his former ally and today bitter rival, Avigdor Lieberman. Finally, I would look for a Unity Government with Gantz or try to fracture 'Blue and White' that was born a year ago as a union of three "antiBibi" parties. As a shield, the Likud leader does not abandon the right-wing bloc that was faithful to him when he failed to train Executive twice in 2019, and supports him in initiatives at the Knesset to face his corruption trial.
In 'Blue and White', they admit the disappointment, denounce that Gantz was the subject of "the dirtiest electoral campaign in the history of Israel led by the accused" , they pray that Netanyahu does not reach 61 and remember that it is the same result that in April 2019. Then, Lieberman turned his back on Netanyahu, either because he opposes his Jaredi allies or because he feels personal dislike for him.
Gantz may regret not accepting President Reuven Rivlin's proposal after the September 17 elections: a government of unity based on rotation. If he had agreed, he would have been prime minister in a month. But the former army chief did not accept it because the majority of his electorate was opposed to cooperating with Netanyahu because of his imputation and his anti-institutional messages. Gantz and his three companions in the dome of the party did not trust Netanyahu suspecting that since his defeat in September, his only objective was a new electoral call. In the Likud they deny it.
Beyond the enormous personal victory of Netanyahu that keeps him as the main actor in Israeli politics, the elections confirm the deep division around his figure. Half loves him and the other detests him.
Netanyahu must send a bouquet of flowers to two people . On the one hand, his internal rival Gideon Saar who in December forced him to some primary that forced him to attend dozens of rallies that gave him the victory and woke up to his bases facing March 2. On the other hand and paradoxically, the attorney general Avijai Mandelblit who announced his complaint in November. Netanyahu knew how to mobilize the DNA of the Likud who feels persecuted by the elites of the left.
Beyond his rhetoric, charisma, 14 years of experience as head of government in two phases, an unemployment rate of 3.6% , a very aggressive campaign against Gantz, his international media presence with meetings with Trump and Putin and the vote Identity, Netanyahu profited two vital advantages over his rival.
Keys: the party, participation and political appetite
First, the match. The likudnikim do not abandon their leader and especially when they are fully convinced that the elite persecutes him "fabricating criminal cases." "We were born in Likud and we will die in Likud," a woman in an urn in Jerusalem told me, highlighting the family character of the party created in 1973.
Second, the right has more voters than the left center. Whether due to demographic changes or the collapse of the left (internal grief, absence of a charismatic leader and disappointment over the Second Intifada and the effects of the withdrawal from Gaza), the "Republican" bloc is broader than the "Democrat" " in Israel.
In this sense, Netanyahu made numerous rallies, interviews and speeches managing to massively awaken the vote in the Likud feuds . On this occasion, the party used an application capable of locating all those who did not vote in September. The spectacular increase in the vote in the Likud and the Arab party explains the greater electoral participation (71%) in Israel since 2009 .
While the Likud had a clear message on issues such as the application of sovereignty over the West Bank settlements of Trump's plan, 'Blue and White' spoke in several voices. While the Likud managed to insert in the voter, tired of so many elections, that he has a safe block to govern, 'Blue and White' failed to explain how he would manage to do so.
Another clear difference was portrayed in the most popular satire show. 'Eretz Nehederet' shows the two great candidates on election day since the alarm clock rings. Netanyahu wakes up and begins a marathon and intense session of interviews and phone calls to get votes based on impossible promises and lies ("Gantz has a coronavirus after being infected by his Iranian lover who blackmails him, is bribed") while the centrist leader passes the day at home drinking coffee, reading and watching television.
Although satire always exaggerates reality, the sequence reflects Netanyahu's voracious political appetite that, at 70, has resurfaced for the joy of some and despite others.
Seat distribution
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According to the count with 97% of the votes counted
- Likud (right): 36 (32)
- Blue and White (center): 32 (33)
- Joint List (Arabic block): 15 (13)
- Shas (Sephardic Ultra-Orthodox): 10 (9)
- Labor-Meretz-Gesher (left): 7 (11)
- Torah Judaism (Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox): 7 (7)
- Israel Beitenu: 7 (8)
- Yamina (religious right): 6 (7)
- Right block: 59
- Center-left block and Arabic list: 54
- Israel Beitenu: 7
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
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