(Fighting new crown pneumonia) overseas war "epidemic": "I believe China's economy will soon regain growth momentum"
China News Agency, Berlin, March 4th (Reporter Peng Dawei) What is the impact of the new crown virus pneumonia epidemic on China's economy? Dr. Juergen Friedrich, director of the German Federal Trade and Investment Agency (GTAI), said in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency that the epidemic would not have a serious impact on the Chinese economy. After the downturn, it will soon regain its growth momentum before the outbreak.
The German Federal Trade and Investment Agency is the agency of the German Federal Government for foreign trade and inward investment. The agency advises and supports foreign companies entering the German market and assists companies established in Germany to enter foreign markets. Recently, the German Federal Trade and Investment Agency continuously tracked the impact of the epidemic on the economies of Asian countries and regions, and produced a special edition on its official website of the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on major markets in Asia.
Talking about the specific industries that the new coronavirus will affect in China, Jurgen Friedrich said that the epidemic will affect many industries, especially the automotive industry, electronics and electrical industry where China has advantages in manufacturing and processing. , Glass fiber industry, and pharmaceutical and paper industries. "We think these industries will be relatively affected. Of course, the stagnation in transportation has also greatly affected logistics in China and Asia."
Jurgen Friedrich emphasized that the impact of the epidemic on China's industrial structure depends on how long the epidemic will last. "Assuming that measures are taken quickly by the health sector to improve the situation very quickly, we don't think there will be a big 'fault' in the Chinese economy."
He also pointed out that after the epidemic, of course, there will be new changes, such as companies may expand their supply bases, from focusing on one source country in the past, to less relying on a single source country in the future. On the other hand, the impact of China's health care field will further develop. For example, in terms of laboratory construction needs, medical technology, and services-related industries, it will gain stronger development.
"Our prediction is that the epidemic will not have a serious impact on the Chinese economy. After adjustment, it will be able to adapt to the shock state of the global industrial value chain and processing chain." Looking forward to the future development of the Chinese economy after the epidemic, Jurgen Friedrich pointed out that if everything is as expected, China will quickly control the epidemic through quarantine and other measures, no more patients will appear, the diagnosed patients will be cured one after another, and the enterprise can be normal. If work starts, then it will soon return to normal.
"So the first batch of such signals is very important to restore confidence. For example, the first Apple store in China resumed operations, or some provinces began to relax control measures. These are positive signals, indicating that the impact will not be great. "He expects that after the downturn in the first quarter of this year, the Chinese economy will soon regain the growth momentum it had before the outbreak. As for many currently unfulfilled investments or incomplete orders, they will be replenished later.
Talking about whether the epidemic will affect China's import and export, foreign direct investment and global supply chain, Jurgen Friedrich emphasized that the epidemic has brought huge challenges to the Chinese economy, and it is not yet possible for the whole Affect the next judgment, "so such predictions are more difficult."
"In principle, if companies wish to invest in China, they will pay more attention to long-term factors and will not make a judgment of not investing because of a short-term epidemic." He pointed out that he did not believe that during the "post-epidemic period", the above-mentioned China and The relationship of the world economy will undergo a "radical" change, "because the significance of the Chinese market is too important for companies."
"China is Germany's largest export destination. Although there were some predictions of an" economic downturn "before the outbreak, key data indicate that the Chinese economy is still developing in a positive direction." Jurgen Friedrich Hope said. (Finish)