Johannesburg (AFP)
South Africa, the continent's leading industrial power, plunged back into recession in 2019 for the second consecutive year, bad figures due in particular to repeated power cuts that handicap its economy.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019, after falling 0.8% in the third quarter, the National Statistics Office (StatsSA) announced on Tuesday.
"South Africa entered its third # recession since 1994", the year of the end of the apartheid regime, said the institution, the second recession since the coming to power of Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 .
The country had registered its first post-1994 recession during the global crisis of 2008-2009.
Over the whole of 2019, South Africa recorded growth of 0.2%, the weakest since the financial storm that swept the planet, according to StatsSA.
For years, the country seems to be stuck in a crisis manifested by weak growth, the deterioration of public finances, mass unemployment (29.1%) and, more recently, repeated blackouts.
The growth figures "are not pleasant but at the same time they can in no way be a shock or a surprise because the signs were there", reacted Tuesday Mr. Ramaphosa, citing load shedding and "their impact on production ".
"We need a reliable and sustainable supply" of electricity, he insisted, stressing "the urgent need to continue" the reforms undertaken by his government, in particular the liberalization of the energy market.
- Anticipation of the arrival of the coronavirus -
The public group Eskom, which is crumbling under an abysmal debt of 26 billion euros, currently supplies more than 90% of the country's electricity.
The government was still counting on growth of just 0.9% last week. But Ramaphosa warned Tuesday of the negative economic impact of the coronavirus epidemic in China.
It is only a matter of time before cases are reported in South Africa, he said. "We will be affected quite negatively" economically by the spread of the Covid-19 virus, he warned.
In this context, the government's growth forecasts "seem too optimistic today," said economist Raymond Parsons of the University of North West.
"For 2020, growth should be around 0.6%", not 0.9%, he predicted.
In the fourth quarter of 2019, the "main brakes on activity" were transport (-7.2%) and trade (-3.8%), according to StatsSA.
Construction and agriculture, which suffers from a long drought, have also weighed down the South African economy, which Cyril Ramaphosa has promised to revive for two years.
But so far, the ex-unionist converted into an industry captain has been failing after failure.
- "Zombie" public enterprises -
Many South African public enterprises are going through serious difficulties, the consequences of years of mismanagement and corruption under the presidency of his predecessor Jacob Zuma (2009-2018).
In addition to the difficulties of the Eskom group, the airline South African Airways (SAA) has been placed in receivership to avoid bankruptcy. It has since closed ten destinations and will soon announce a social plan.
For the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the recession is "largely" linked to "the government's failure" in the liberalization of electricity production, to "rescue plans" permanent state-owned zombie companies and at the "unsustainable" level of debt.
For the DA, the solution goes through "the liberation of the economy from the deadly weight of a failing State".
Conversely, the radical left party of the Fighters for Economic Freedom (EFF, opposition) pointed to "the neo-liberal policies of Cyril Ramaphosa" which "worsen" the economic situation.
With its entry into recession, South Africa finds itself more than ever under the threat of a downgrading of its financial rating by the agency Moody's, the only of the big three not to have further downgraded it to the rank of speculative investment.
Fitch and S&P relegated it to this category in 2017.
Such a sanction could cause an exodus of investors and increase the pressure on the local currency.
© 2020 AFP