The ruling elite after 2003 is not eligible to reform the situation in Iraq

The United States faces an increasing set of first-class policy questions in Iraq, and it needs an answer. The answer, of course, does not lie in the newly appointed Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi, but rather may be in a popular uprising.

Allawi's nomination recently as Prime Minister leads to a dead end for both Iraq and the United States, this man has no opportunity to resolve the two main crises that the country is now experiencing: the erosion of the legitimacy of the political class that emerged after 2003, and the ever-increasing submission of Iraq to Iran and its local proxies, The United States should completely move away from Allawi and focus its energies instead on supporting the extraordinary protest movement, which has led to a change in Iraqi politics, since late last year, and whose demands are sovereignty, independence, and clean governance, which is the last hope not only for Qaz Iraq, but also to save the future of US relations - Iraq.

Demonstrations

It is a mistake to underestimate the importance of the mass demonstrations that erupted in Baghdad on the first of October 2019, and spread quickly in all major cities in southern Iraq. These demonstrations are dominated by young people (nearly 60% of the Iraqi population is now under 25 years old), and most of the demonstrators are from the Shi'a community, the largest religious sect in Iraq. The protesters called from the start for a comprehensive reform of the Shiite-dominated regime, which had ruled since the fall of the former President, Saddam Hussein, accusing this system of irreparable corruption, and described him as ineligible to lead the country, and that his orientation is sectarian and infiltrated by Iran.

Brutal repression

Rather than taking into account the demands of the protesters, the government almost immediately chose the path of brutal repression of killing, maiming, terrorizing and abusing its citizens, and on a scale that made the protests in Hong Kong seem like a game for children. During the waves of violence, in the past four months, hundreds of people have been killed, kidnapped, tortured or disappeared, and about 20,000 people have been injured.

Meanwhile, the isolated political class, which has not been in contact with the public, and which has practiced for most of the past two decades, has systematically plundered the vast wealth of the country, using all forms of brutality, cruelty and criminality. And in a distinguished historical moment, this class refused to stand with its people, and it chose this ruling establishment in the period after 2003, instead, to protect its interests, and to go on the path of killing its youth, abusing them and treating them with brutality.

A few politicians expressed concern and demanded restraint, but none of them resigned in protest against what happened and was happening, none of them joined the demonstrators, and no one called the killers by name, and no one was held accountable.

To make matters worse, the government's decision to kill the protesters was clearly coordinated by a foreign force (Iran), and in large part it was implemented by its Iraqi proxies, including a group of powerful Shiite militias, known as the PMF. Before its elimination with an American Hellfire missile, last month, the Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, in charge of the "Quds Force" of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, was widely known to preside over meetings in Baghdad to map the Iraqi government's work to suppress the protests, and was working to confiscate The power of elected Iraqi leaders. When Soleimani was absent from Iraq, he delegated his authority to the most trusted Iraqi lieutenant and leader in the PMF, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who died in the same missile strike that killed Soleimani.

The protests have exposed to everyone the unholy alliance that now exists between the ruling class in Iraq after 2003 and the regime in Iran. For years, this alliance accelerated with the rise of the "popular crowd" during the war against ISIS, and the integration of Shiite militias under the banner of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Iraqi security forces.

The path of no return

The so-called "Hezbollah in Iraq" was already on its way to completion when protests erupted for the first time. With the government’s decision to eliminate the protesters rather than resort to reform, and surrender to Iran's plots to crush national protests, the Iraqi government appears to be on the path of no return. A lot of innocent blood has been shed in order to keep the Iraqi political class in power, whether by intimidation, bribery, greed, or other methods.

Because of all its countless failures, its ineligibility to rule, and its failure to protect Iraqi sovereignty from predatory foreign actors, the protesters have unequivocally rejected the Iraqi political class, collectively, and have made clear week after week, month after month, that they cannot There will be a solution to the current crisis without leaving all the people who came to power after 2003. It seems that the Iraqis instead want to create a kind of transitional authority, blessed by protesters and composed of highly respected people, who have no links to the current ruling elite, and work on a schedule Fast timeline for doing this See the emergency and comprehensive pave the way for free and fair elections.

Allawi is not competent

Allawi is a Shiite, and a former member of Parliament, he held the position of the reputable Iraqi Minister of Communications and less corrupt, but he is incompetent compared to most of his colleagues, and like the former Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, he is said to have been a bureaucrat for a long time, rather than being a strong political mediator And, he claims that he does not belong to any political party, and he lacks an independent support base, but, like Abdel-Mahdi, he belongs to the Rael of the post-2003 regime, which is why the protesters rejected him.

Deal

What makes us refuse to support Allawi's case is that his candidacy came as a result of a deal signed in the back rooms in Iran between the Vice-President of the Popular Mobilization Committee, Hadi al-Amiri, and the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, two pillars of the dysfunctional Iraqi regime.

Al-Amiri, who fought for Iran during the Iraq-Iran war, heads a major faction in the Iraqi parliament, and the Badr militia, backed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which has controlled the Iraqi Ministry of Interior for years, and has played a leading role in suppressing the current protests.

Sadr is an anti-American cleric, in addition to being a mercurial figure, and a key element in the group that governs Iraq after 2003, as he drained the funds of government ministries and controlled a powerful militia that worked to enhance the wealth and strength of his political movement. The protesters are fully aware that with the presence of entities that clearly depend on figures such as Al-Amiri and Al-Sadr, Allawi's appointment is dipped in sin, and is not intended to change the corrupt regime in Iraq, but rather to save him.

Harsh truth

It didn't take long for the harsh truth surrounding Allawi's candidacy to unfold before us, on February 1. While Allawi issued a conciliatory statement in which he praised the protesters and promised to hold their executioners accountable, Al-Sadr was at that very moment sending his militias to attack the demonstrations, breaking the heads of those who are speaking out against Allawi’s nomination, and in Baghdad and the protest centers throughout southern Iraq, the Sadrist thugs provoked a week of riots In all, it included beating, burning and killing. After a bloody day in Najaf, on February 5, Allawi called on the Mahdi government to protect protests, so that he can form a new government that meets the demands of the people. But no word was issued against the Sadrists who publicly committed the atrocities in the name of his appointment. There is no word calling on his political sponsor, Al-Sadr, to stop the attacks and hand over those responsible for chaos to the authorities to punish them.

John Hanna - Senior Fellow, Defense for Democracy

Understand reality

The Trump administration now needs to understand the difficult reality, that the Iraqi regime as it stands cannot be an increasingly vital partner for advancing American interests. Although the situation was very worrying even before the protests began, the events that occurred, since last October, have left no room for doubt. For the first time since 2003, the Iraqi government systematically committed widespread violence against its unarmed citizens, whose demands for democratic change and Iraqi sovereignty largely match US interests and values.

Rather than taking into account the demands of the protesters, the government almost immediately chose the path of brutal repression, of killing, maiming, terrorizing and abusing its citizens, and on a scale that made the protests in Hong Kong seem like a game for children.

• The United States should completely move away from Allawi and focus its energies instead on supporting the extraordinary protest movement, which has led to a change in Iraqi politics since late last year, whose demands are sovereignty, independence and clean governance, and is the last hope not only to save Iraq, But also to save the future of US-Iraqi relations.