Scientific breakthrough .. Researchers are developing a new algorithm to predict devastating earthquakes

I thought about the Mahdi

Earthquakes are the most dangerous among natural disasters because we are unable to predict when they will happen, but a study published in the "Earth and Planetary Science Letters" journal in its issue No. 536 for the current February, managed to change this perception.

The study explains an algorithm developed by a team of researchers from the Helmholtz-Potsdam Center-German GeFZ Center for Geological Research to calculate "PEGS" with high accuracy and without great effort.

Researchers have shown that we can rely on these signals to infer the mechanisms, intensity, and duration of devastating earthquakes.

Gravitational signals
It is known that when an earthquake strikes seismic signals that propagate at the speed of light (300 thousand km per second) and can be recorded earlier than the arrival time of relatively slow seismic waves (at a speed of about eight kilometers per second).

These rapid signals are caused by sudden changes in the gravitational range due to a change in the distribution of masses in the tectonic layers. It was called "Flexible Gravitational Quick Signs - PEGS".

Not only are these signals the focus of the earthquake, but they are also generated with the spread of seismic waves deep in the ground.

The Helmholtz Potsdam Center - the German GeFz Center for Geological Research - has provided a scientific head start by developing an algorithm that can calculate these signals, which promises to predict a devastating earthquake or tsunami.

The researchers pointed out that these signals can only be calculated for destructive earthquakes of high intensity, because the effect of gravitational change in these signals is very small, reaching less than a billion of Earth's gravity.

Tsunami prediction algorithm
The earthquake suddenly changes the rock panels in the ground, and thus it changes the overall distribution of blocks in the ground.

This means that each earthquake will generate a simple but immediate change in gravity, which will change the density of rocks and thus change gravity for a short period, which means that the Earth's gravitational fluctuation somewhat fluctuates in conjunction with the earthquake, resulting in the generation of secondary seismic waves as well.

Some of these secondary seismic waves from gravity can be detected even before the main seismic waves arrive.

The researchers had difficulty sorting and distinguishing rapid gravitational signals from other types of seismic tremors associated with them, to provide more accurate estimates and predictions of earthquake strength.

Algorithm reliability test
To validate the algorithm, the researchers applied it to seismic data on the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that struck Japan, and which also caused the Fukushima tsunami. There was a perfect match between the computer results and the field monitoring data.

This lends credence to the possibility of using this new algorithm to predict other future earthquakes by assessing changes in gravity hundreds of kilometers away from the epicenter, and it can also be used during an earthquake to verify whether it will cause a tsunami.

While the seismic tools available today are not yet sensitive enough, add to that the signals they generate are too many and they overlap together so that it is difficult to distinguish them directly within this system.

However, this study paves the way for more extensive and necessary research to prepare an early and accurate integrated system of devastating earthquakes and tsunami.