Samer Allawi - Kuala Lumpur

According to the constitution, the Malaysian parliament has the right to choose the prime minister, but political chaos has restored power to the palace and the king can do everything to ensure stability, including declaring a state of emergency and assigning a person to lead the government without regard to the output of the polls.

After the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, it became clear the size of the disparities between the political blocs in Parliament, as they were divided into three, none of which have a majority that enables them to form a government, which is called in the political tradition of the suspended parliament.

These blocs are: Anwar Ibrahim bloc known as the "Alliance of Hope" and its members in Parliament are estimated at 92 members, the Mahathir Muhammad bloc with an estimated sixty seats, and the Joint Understanding Bloc of the United Malay National Organization (Amnu) and the Islamic Party (PAS), which is also estimated at about sixty Seats,

No bloc can form a government alone unless it has 113 seats in the 222-member parliament.

Maneuvers and fluctuations
After Mahathir's resignation and his (Eartherland) party left the "Alliance of Hope", the "Amnu" and "Pace" parties announced their abandonment of the constitutional declaration, a draft vote in Parliament to support Mahathir's continued power in the entire term of parliament until 2023.

The petition of the constitutional declaration - which has been under discussion for weeks - was aimed at preventing Anwar from reaching the premiership, in the event Mahathir abdicates power in implementation of the ruling coalition formation agreement before the May 2018 elections.

Political analysts see Mahathir’s back being exposed by withdrawing “Amnu” and “Bass” support for him and his exit from the Alliance of Hope, especially since his party is not ready for the early elections that Amnu and Bass are demanding,

This is indicated by a close associate of the Prime Minister, saying that the two parties want me to arm the Mahathir faction and drag it to elections that it is not ready for.

As for Anwar, he depends - if he is assigned to form a government - to attract at least twenty members from the parties of the states of Sarawak and Sabah, and some of these parties have announced their support for Mahathir, but the two states that make up the eastern part of the country always tend to support the central authority.

The "Amno Pass" alliance announced the support of former Interior Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who is the head of the Mahathir Party, but the "Alliance of Hope" soon announced his support for Mahathir to give up the leader of his party (Yassin).

Observers have explained the transformations of the Alliance of Hope and its ups and downs to desperate attempts in the search for survival by the Democratic Action Party, which is dominated by people of Chinese descent, with any deal that enables it to exclude the success of any coalition that includes the "Bass and Amenu" parties or resort to early elections that are not ready for it. .

To the palace
Perhaps the most prominent manifestation of the current crisis is the emergence of the decisive role of the king in the central authority and the other eight sultans in their states.

The royal palace has become a pilgrimage to all politicians since the outbreak of the crisis, and the king's role has strengthened his decision to listen to all members of Parliament unilaterally to formulate a comprehensive vision of how to get out of the crisis and who has the confidence of the majority.

Mahathir tried to preempt the king's decision by calling for a special session of parliament to choose the next prime minister.

Political analyst Abdul Razzaq Al-Saqqaf said that the reason for Mahathir's pre-emptive move was his knowledge that most sultans did not favor him, especially after a series of battles he fought with each other, and pressured the former king to submit the resignation.

6136371988001 d1aa0b73-0440-47b9-9d82-b6dbff4f3f4a ea0423ae-595c-4bf0-a8e1-a735732ad314
video

However, the Speaker of Parliament and most of the parties refused to hold an extraordinary session on the pretext that it was unconstitutional and not a prerogative of the "interim" Prime Minister. Indeed, some parties saw it as inappropriate and an insult to the authority of the king.

King Abdullah Iyad-ul-Din Mustafa Bellah Shah last re-appointed Mahathir to head an interim government four hours after his resignation last Monday, with the belief that the request for re-assignment was present with the resignation, which was explained by the King's desire to make a decision according to his absolute powers according to the constitution.

King options
Given the exclusion of a close session of Parliament, as its first session will be on the ninth of next March, all expectations are subject to the decision of the King, who chaired an emergency meeting of state governors on Friday morning.

After the Sultans ’Council meeting, a spokesman for the royal palace confirmed that the king had not reached enough conviction that anyone could obtain a parliamentary majority.

Amid the political tensions, observers believe that the king may resort to assigning the largest bloc in parliament to form a government, and if he fails within 14 days, one of his powers is to dissolve parliament and call early elections.

The other option is to persuade the various party blocs in parliament to form a government of national unity, but the problem remains in who leads this government, and there have been many rumors about who the parliamentary blocs can agree upon, and if it is achieved it will be a weak government whose mission is to prepare for the upcoming elections that may not Long awaited.

What is certain is that the political crisis has turned into a bone fracture between the "Amen and Bass" poles on the one hand and the democratic work and the national secretariat that split from Bass four years ago, and it is difficult to predict how it will end.

In conjunction with statements saying that the king takes into account the priority of security and political stability, former and current security officials entered the line of consultations with the palace, which raised speculation that the king might resort to declaring a state of emergency in the event of a deadlock, in order to avoid an economic and social crisis.

Observers do not exclude that the king will resort to assigning a figure from the eastern part of the country to set a historical precedent, as none of the citizens of this region have ever assumed the premiership.

This trend reflects the failure of politicians in the Malay peninsula to make concessions that allay the growing concerns of the Malaysian people.